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Durán AP, Kuiper JJ, Aguiar APD, Cheung WWL, Diaw MC, Halouani G, Hashimoto S, Gasalla MA, Peterson GD, Schoolenberg MA, Abbasov R, Acosta LA, Armenteras D, Davila F, Denboba MA, Harrison PA, Harhash KA, Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen S, Kim H, Lundquist CJ, Miller BW, Okayasu S, Pichs-Madruga R, Sathyapalan J, Saysel AK, Yu D, Pereira LM. Bringing the Nature Futures Framework to life: creating a set of illustrative narratives of nature futures. SUSTAINABILITY SCIENCE 2023:1-20. [PMID: 37363310 PMCID: PMC10158677 DOI: 10.1007/s11625-023-01316-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/19/2022] [Accepted: 03/07/2023] [Indexed: 06/28/2023]
Abstract
To halt further destruction of the biosphere, most people and societies around the globe need to transform their relationships with nature. The internationally agreed vision under the Convention of Biological Diversity-Living in harmony with nature-is that "By 2050, biodiversity is valued, conserved, restored and wisely used, maintaining ecosystem services, sustaining a healthy planet and delivering benefits essential for all people". In this context, there are a variety of debates between alternative perspectives on how to achieve this vision. Yet, scenarios and models that are able to explore these debates in the context of "living in harmony with nature" have not been widely developed. To address this gap, the Nature Futures Framework has been developed to catalyse the development of new scenarios and models that embrace a plurality of perspectives on desirable futures for nature and people. In this paper, members of the IPBES task force on scenarios and models provide an example of how the Nature Futures Framework can be implemented for the development of illustrative narratives representing a diversity of desirable nature futures: information that can be used to assess and develop scenarios and models whilst acknowledging the underpinning value perspectives on nature. Here, the term illustrative reflects the multiple ways in which desired nature futures can be captured by these narratives. In addition, to explore the interdependence between narratives, and therefore their potential to be translated into scenarios and models, the six narratives developed here were assessed around three areas of the transformative change debate, specifically, (1) land sparing vs. land sharing, (2) Half Earth vs. Whole Earth conservation, and (3) green growth vs. post-growth economic development. The paper concludes with an assessment of how the Nature Futures Framework could be used to assist in developing and articulating transformative pathways towards desirable nature futures. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11625-023-01316-1.
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Affiliation(s)
- América Paz Durán
- Instituto de Ciencias Ambientales y Evolutivas, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile
- Instituto de Ecología y Biodiversidad (IEB-Chile), Santiago, Chile
| | - Jan J. Kuiper
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Kräftriket 2B, 104 05 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Ana Paula Dutra Aguiar
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Kräftriket 2B, 104 05 Stockholm, Sweden
- National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Av. dos Astronautas 1758, São José dos Campos, SP CEP: 12227-010 Brazil
| | - William W. L. Cheung
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada
| | - Mariteuw Chimère Diaw
- African Model Forests Network, BP 33678, Yaoundé, Cameroon
- African Model Forests Network, BP 2384, Dakar, Senegal
| | - Ghassen Halouani
- IFREMER, Unité halieutique Manche‐Mer du Nord Ifremer, HMMN, 62200 Boulogne sur Mer, France
| | | | - Maria A. Gasalla
- Fisheries Ecosystems Laboratory (LabPesq), Oceanographic Institute, University of Sao Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Garry D. Peterson
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Kräftriket 2B, 104 05 Stockholm, Sweden
| | | | - Rovshan Abbasov
- Department of Geography and Environment, Khazar University, Baku, Azerbaijan
| | - Lilibeth A. Acosta
- Climate Action and Inclusive Development Department, Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI), Seoul, South Korea
| | - Dolors Armenteras
- Departamento de Biologia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogota, Colombia
| | - Federico Davila
- Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, Australia
| | | | | | | | | | - HyeJin Kim
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
- Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Salle), Germany
| | - Carolyn J. Lundquist
- National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Hamilton, New Zealand
- School of Environment, The University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - Brian W. Miller
- U.S. Geological Survey, North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center, Boulder, CO USA
| | - Sana Okayasu
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands
| | | | - Jyothis Sathyapalan
- National Institute of Rural Development and Panchayati Raj Hyderabad, Hyderabad, India
| | - Ali Kerem Saysel
- Institute of Environmental Sciences, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul, Turkey
| | - Dandan Yu
- Nanjing Institute of Environmental Sciences (NIES), Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) of China, 8 Jiangwangmiao Street, Nanjing, 210042 People’s Republic of China
| | - Laura M. Pereira
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Kräftriket 2B, 104 05 Stockholm, Sweden
- Global Change Institute, Wits University, Johannesburg, South Africa
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