Predicting fever in neutropenia with safety-relevant events in children undergoing chemotherapy for cancer: The prospective multicenter SPOG 2015 FN Definition Study

Outcome prediction in pediatric fever in neutropenia: Development of clinical decision rules and external validation of published rules based on data from the prospective multicenter SPOG 2015 FN definition study

BACKGROUND

Fever in neutropenia (FN) remains a serious complication of childhood cancer therapy. Clinical decision rules (CDRs) are recommended to help distinguish between children at high and low risk of severe infection. The aim of this analysis was to develop new CDRs for three different outcomes and to externally validate published CDRs.

PROCEDURE

Children undergoing chemotherapy for cancer were observed in a prospective multicenter study. CDRs predicting low from high risk infection regarding three outcomes (bacteremia, serious medical complications (SMC), safety relevant events (SRE)) were developed from multivariable regression models. Their predictive performance was assessed by internal cross-validation. Published CDRs suitable for validation were identified by literature search. Parameters of predictive performance were compared to assess reproducibility.

RESULTS

In 158 patients recruited between April 2016 and August 2018, 360 FN episodes were recorded, including 56 (16%) with bacteremia, 30 (8%) with SMC and 72 (20%) with SRE. The CDRs for bacteremia and SRE used four characteristics (type of malignancy, severely reduced general condition, leucocyte count <0.3 G/L, bone marrow involvement), the CDR for SMC two characteristics (severely reduced general condition and platelet count <50 G/L). Eleven published CDRs were analyzed. Six CDRs showed reproducibility, but only one in both sensitivity and specificity.

CONCLUSIONS

This analysis developed CDRs predicting bacteremia, SMC or SRE at presentation with FN. In addition, it identified six published CDRs that show some reproducibility. Validation of CDRs is fundamental to find the best balance between sensitivity and specificity, and will help to further improve management of FN.

Time to antibiotics is unrelated to outcome in pediatric patients with fever in neutropenia presenting without severe disease during chemotherapy for cancer

Fever in neutropenia (FN) remains an unavoidable, potentially lethal complication of chemotherapy. Timely administration of empirical broad-spectrum intravenous antibiotics has become standard of care. But the impact of time to antibiotics (TTA), the lag period between recognition of fever or arrival at the hospital to start of antibiotics, remains unclear. Here we aimed to analyze the association between TTA and safety relevant events (SRE) in data from a prospective multicenter study. We analyzed the association between time from recognition of fever to start of antibiotics (TTA) and SRE (death, admission to intensive care unit, severe sepsis and bacteremia) with three-level mixed logistic regression. We adjusted for possible triage bias using a propensity score and stratified the analysis by severity of disease at presentation with FN. We analyzed 266 FN episodes, including 53 (20%) with SRE, reported in 140 of 269 patients recruited from April 2016 to August 2018. TTA (median, 120 min; interquartile range, 49-180 min) was not associated with SRE, with a trend for less SREs in episodes with longer TTA. Analyses applying the propensity score suggested a relevant triage bias. Only in patients with severe disease at presentation there was a trend for an association of longer TTA with more SRE. In conclusion, TTA was unrelated to poor clinical outcome in pediatric patients with FN presenting without severe disease. We saw strong evidence for triage bias which could only be partially adjusted.