A nationwide registry study on heart failure in Norway from 2008 to 2018: variations in lookback period affect incidence estimates

Background

The incidence of heart failure (HF) has declined in Europe during the past two decades. However, incidence estimates from registry-based studies may vary, partly because they depend on retrospective searches to exclude previous events. The aim of this study was to assess to what extent different lookback periods (LPs) affect temporal trends in incidence, and to identify the minimal acceptable LP. Further, we wanted to estimate temporal trends in incidence and prevalence of HF in a nationwide population, using the minimal acceptable LP.

Methods

We identified all in- and out-patient contacts for HF in Norway during 2008 to 2018 from the Norwegian Patient Registry. To calculate the influence of varying LP on incident cases, we defined 2018 with 10 years of LP as a reference and calculated the relative difference by using one through 9 years of lookback. Temporal trends in incidence rates were estimated with sensitivity analyses applying varying LPs and different case definitions. Standardised incidence rates and prevalence were calculated by applying direct age- and sex-standardization to the 2013 European Standard Population.

Results

The overestimation of incident cases declined with increasing number of years included in the LP. Compared to a 10-year LP, application of 4, 6, and 8 years resulted in an overestimation of incident cases by 13.5%, 6.2% and 2.3%, respectively. Temporal trends in incidence were affected by the number of years in the LP and whether the LP was fixed or varied. Including all available data mislead to conclusions of declining incidence rates over time due to increasing LPs.

Conclusions

When taking the number of years with available data and HF mortality and morbidity into consideration, we propose that 6 years of fixed lookback is sufficient for identification of incident HF cases. HF incidence rates and prevalence increased from 2014 to 2018.

Trial registration

Retrospectively registered.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12872-022-02522-y.

Thromboembolic Risk in Nonanticoagulated Patients With Atrial Fibrillation and Valvular Heart Disease

OBJECTIVES

This study sought to describe the risk of thromboembolism in nonanticoagulated atrial fibrillation patients with Evaluated Heartvalves, Rheumatic or Artificial (EHRA) Type 2 valvular heart disease (VHD) <65 or 65 to 74 years of age and with 0 or 1 non-sex comorbidity of the CHA₂DS₂-VASc score.

BACKGROUND

A minor, but important, proportion of patients with atrial fibrillation and VHD beyond moderate-to-severe mitral stenosis and/or a mechanical prosthetic valve, so-called EHRA Type 2 VHD, have 0 or 1 coexisting non-sex comorbidities of the CHA₂DS₂-VASc score, and are therefore not strongly recommended oral anticoagulant therapy according to guidelines. Whether these patients are truly low risk of thromboembolism has not been investigated.

METHODS

This was a cohort study of 55,613 patients identified in nationwide Danish registries from 2000 to 2018, of which 1,907 patients had EHRA Type 2 VHD. Risk of thromboembolism after 1 and 5 years of follow-up were calculated.

RESULTS

At 1 year after atrial fibrillation diagnosis, patients with EHRA Type 2 VHD had a risk of thromboembolism between 1.2% and 1.5%, according to age group (<65 or 65 to 74 years of age), and number of non-sex comorbidities of the CHA₂DS₂-VASc score (0 or 1). Interestingly, in patients with EHRA Type 2 VHD <65 years of age with 0 or 1 comorbidity, the risk was 1.5% (95% confidence interval: 0.7% to 2.8%) and 1.5% (95% confidence interval: 0.6% to 3.4%) at 1 year after the atrial fibrillation diagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS

These observations suggest that in atrial fibrillation patients with EHRA Type 2 VHD, who are not currently recommended oral anticoagulant therapy according to guidelines, the risk of thromboembolism may exceed the level above which oral anticoagulation is considered beneficial.

Rationale and design of a European epidemiological post-authorization safety study (PASS) program: rivaroxaban use in routine clinical practice

BACKGROUND

Rivaroxaban is a highly selective factor Xa inhibitor approved for use in Europe for multiple indications.

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

The European rivaroxaban epidemiological post-authorization safety study (PASS) program consists of seven complementary observational studies. For four of the studies, data are obtained from health-care databases in the UK, the Netherlands, Germany, and Sweden. These database studies describe patterns of rivaroxaban use and patient characteristics over time, and investigate safety and effectiveness outcomes in new users of rivaroxaban using a cohort analysis and nested case-control analysis. To put these results in context, safety outcomes are also analyzed in new users of standard of care. In addition, a modified prescription event monitoring study conducted in the early post-launch phase in primary care, and two specialist cohort event monitoring studies that investigated rivaroxaban use in the secondary care hospital setting, systematically collected drug utilization and safety data via questionnaires completed by health-care professionals in the UK.

DISCUSSION

The European rivaroxaban epidemiological PASS is a comprehensive program of complementary studies generating evidence from patients treated in routine clinical practice that will expand our understanding of the risk-benefit profile of rivaroxaban.