Understanding the variability of pharmaco-epidemiological studies assessing the risk of appendicitis with mRNA COVID-19 vaccines

Acute Appendicitis After COVID-19 Vaccines in Italy: A Self-Controlled Case Series Study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Cases of appendicitis were identified in the pivotal randomized clinical trial on BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine and reported from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine pharmacovigilance systems. Three cohort studies and two self-controlled case series (SCCS) studies evaluating the association between mRNA vaccines and appendicitis reported discordant results. To address this uncertainty, the present study examines in a large population, with a SCCS design, the association between mRNA (BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273) and, for the first time, viral vector (ChAdOx1-S and Ad26.COV2-S) COVID-19 vaccines and acute appendicitis.

METHODS

The SCCS study design was used to evaluate the association between COVID-19 vaccination and subsequent onset of acute appendicitis. The study was based on record linkage of health archives through TheShinISS application, a statistical tool that locally processes data from regional health care databases according to ad hoc, study-tailored and common data model. The study population included all vaccinated subjects ≥ 12 years old between 27 December 2020 and 30 September 2021. The acute appendicitis was identified through discharge diagnoses of hospital admissions or emergency department visits. Incident cases were defined as those who experienced a first event of acute appendicitis in the study period, excluding subjects with a diagnosis of appendicitis in the previous 5 years. Exposure was defined as the first or second dose of BNT162b2, mRNA-1273 and ChAdOx1-S and the single dose of Ad26.COV2-S. The risk interval was defined as 42 days from the first or second vaccination dose and divided into pre-specified risk subperiods; the reference period was the observation time outside the risk interval. Relative incidences (RI) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were estimated with the SCCS method 'modified for event-dependent exposures', through unbiased estimating equations. The seasonal component was considered as a time-dependent covariate.

RESULTS

In the 42-day risk interval 1285 incident cases of acute appendicitis occurred: 727 cases after the first dose and 558 cases after the second dose. In the main analysis, no increased risks of acute appendicitis were observed in subjects vaccinated with BNT162b, mRNA-1273, ChAdOx1-S and Ad26.COV2-S. The subgroup analyses by sex showed an increased risk in the 14-27 day risk interval, in males after the first dose of mRNA-1273 (RI of 1.71; 95% CI 1.08-2.70, p = 0.02) and in females after the single dose of Ad26.COV2-S (RI of 4.40; 95% CI 1.29-15.01, p = 0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

There was no evidence of association of BNT162b, ChAdOx1-S, mRNA-1273 and Ad26.COV2-S with acute appendicitis in the general population. The results of the subgroup analyses by sex needs to be considered with caution. The multiplicity issue cannot be excluded being these hypotheses two of several hypotheses tested. In addition, relevant literature on the biological mechanism of the disease and evidence of similar effects with other vaccines or with the same vaccines are still lacking to provide strong support for a conclusion that there is an harmful effect in males and females with mRNA-1273 and Ad26.COV2-S.