Hazards of toluene storage tanks in a petrochemical plant: modeling effects, consequence analysis, and comparison of two modeling programs

The leakage of toluene from damaged tanks can threaten both workers and the environment; ergo, the effects and consequences of toluene leaks can be modeled and quantified to aid in emergency planning and response management. This study modeled the effects and consequences on various scenarios of toluene release via the ALOHA and PHAST programs: evaporation puddle formation, dispersion of toxic and flammable vapor clouds, the distribution of lethal concentrations, and the probability of death from a toluene leak from a height of 6 m of the tank wall. The outputs of the two modeling programs were analyzed and compared. The results showed that the maximum threat zone distances associated with high hazards of toxicity, flammability, and thermal radiation of toluene were respectively 736, 132, and 52 m in ALOHA and 1626, no result, and 239 m for PHAST from the accident point in the downwind. The highest probability of death was 92%, which occurred at a distance of 1 m in the cold seasons. The output values for the PHAST program were higher than those for ALOHA. The results also showed that the survival zone in which the probability of death was low could be determined from a distance of 51 m onwards. Although the assessment of the results indicated no matching between the results obtained by ALOHA and PHAST, the program outputs could still help decision-makers in emergency response planning and the allocation of medical and support services during emergencies.