Risk assessment of insect pest expansion in alpine ecosystems under climate change

The habitat-suitability models of the European mole cricket (Gryllotalpa gryllotalpa) as information tool for conservation and pest management

The European mole cricket, Gryllotalpa gryllotalpa, feeds on a wide range of crops and can also damage plants with its burrowing activities. In suitable habitats (like those with damp, rich soils in flood plains), G. gryllotalpa numbers can increase to high levels. On the other hand, the abundance of G. gryllotalpa has dramatically decreased in north-western Europe partly due to direct eradication and excessive pest control. Using habitat suitability modelling, we identified areas suitable for G. gryllotalpa occurrence based on previous reports of its occurrence and based on environmental data. We limited our study area to regions where G. gryllotalpa is the only known Gryllotalpa species. The most important variables in our models were found to be relative air humidity and minimum soil temperature of the coldest month. We suggest that soil temperature is a limiting factor for European mole cricket occurrence in the Czech Republic because most areas in the country experience soil temperatures just below 0 °C, while most reports of G. gryllotalpa occurrence in Europe are from areas where the soil temperature does not drop below 0 °C. The models we have developed can provide information on possible occurrences of the mole cricket and thus improve the decision-making process both in the field of pest control and the conservation of this species.

Measuring the Effects of Climate Change on Wheat Production: Evidence from Northern China

The current study examines the long-run effects of climatic factors on wheat production in China's top three wheat-producing provinces (Hebei, Henan, and Shandong). The data set consists of observations from 1992 to 2020 on which several techniques, namely, fully modified OLS (FMOLS), dynamic OLS (DOLS), and canonical co-integrating regression (CCR) estimators, and Granger causality, are applied. The results reveal that climatic factors, such as temperature and rainfall, negatively influenced wheat production in Henan Province. This means that Henan Province is more vulnerable to climate change. In contrast, it is observed that climatic conditions (via temperature and rainfall) positively contributed to wheat production in Hebei Province. Moreover, temperature negatively influenced wheat production in Shandong Province, while rainfall contributed positively to wheat production. Further, the results of Granger causality reveal that climatic factors and other determinants significantly influenced wheat production in the selected provinces.

Evaluation of the Likelihood of Establishing False Codling Moth (Thaumatotibia leucotreta) in Australia via the International Cut Flower Market

Kenya and some other African countries are threatened by a serious pest Thaumatotibia leucotreta (Meyrick) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), the false codling moth. The detection of T. leucotreta is quite difficult due to the cryptic nature of the larvae during transportation and is therefore a concern for Australia. This insect is a known pest of agriculturally important crops. Here, Maxent was used to assess the biosecurity threat of T. leucotreta to Australia. Habitat suitability and risk assessment of T. leucotreta in Australia were identified based on threatened areas under suitable climatic conditions and the presence of hosts in a given habitat. Modeling indicated that Australia is vulnerable to invasion and establishment by T. leucotreta in some states and territories, particularly areas of western and southern Australia. Within these locations, the risk is associated with specific cropping areas. As such, invasion and establishment by T. leucotreta may have serious implications for Australia's agricultural and horticultural industries e.g., the fruit and vegetable industries. This study will be used to inform the government and industry of the threat posed by T. leucotreta imported via the cut flower industry. Targeted preventative measures and trade policy could be introduced to protect Australia from invasion by this pest.

Paninvasion severity assessment of a U.S. grape pest to disrupt the global wine market

Economic impacts from plant pests are often felt at the regional scale, yet some impacts expand to the global scale through the alignment of a pest’s invasion potentials. Such globally invasive species (i.e., paninvasives) are like the human pathogens that cause pandemics. Like pandemics, assessing paninvasion risk for an emerging regional pest is key for stakeholders to take early actions that avoid market disruption. Here, we develop the paninvasion severity assessment framework and use it to assess a rapidly spreading regional U.S. grape pest, the spotted lanternfly planthopper (Lycorma delicatula; SLF), to spread and disrupt the global wine market. We found that SLF invasion potentials are aligned globally because important viticultural regions with suitable environments for SLF establishment also heavily trade with invaded U.S. states. If the U.S. acts as an invasive bridgehead, Italy, France, Spain, and other important wine exporters are likely to experience the next SLF introductions. Risk to the global wine market is high unless stakeholders work to reduce SLF invasion potentials in the U.S. and globally.

The spotted lanternfly planthopper poses a global threat as a paninvasive wine grape pest.