Model-based Meta-Analysis on the Efficacy of Pharmacological Treatments for Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis

Applications of Model-Based Meta-Analysis in Drug Development

Model-based meta-analysis (MBMA) is a quantitative approach that leverages published summary data along with internal data and can be applied to inform key drug development decisions, including the benefit-risk assessment of a treatment under investigation. These risk-benefit assessments may involve determining an optimal dose compared against historic external comparators of a particular disease indication. MBMA can provide a flexible framework for interpreting aggregated data from historic reference studies and therefore should be a standard tool for the model-informed drug development (MIDD) framework.In addition to pairwise and network meta-analyses, MBMA provides further contributions in the quantitative approaches with its ability to incorporate longitudinal data and the pharmacologic concept of dose-response relationship, as well as to combine individual- and summary-level data and routinely incorporate covariates in the analysis.A common application of MBMA is the selection of optimal dose and dosing regimen of the internal investigational molecule to evaluate external benchmarking and to support comparator selection. Two case studies provided examples in applications of MBMA in biologics (durvalumab + tremelimumab for safety) and small molecule (fenebrutinib for efficacy) to support drug development decision-making in two different but well-studied disease areas, i.e., oncology and rheumatoid arthritis, respectively.Important to the future directions of MBMA include additional recognition and engagement from drug development stakeholders for the MBMA approach, stronger collaboration between pharmacometrics and statistics, expanded data access, and the use of machine learning for database building. Timely, cost-effective, and successful application of MBMA should be part of providing an integrated view of MIDD.

Recent trends in pirfenidone and nintedanib use for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis in Australia

ObjectivesIdiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is one of the most common forms of interstitial lung disease presenting in people aged ≥50 years. There is currently no cure for IPF, but two medications (pirfenidone and nintedanib) have been shown to slow the functional decline of the lungs. In 2017, these two medications were listed on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) for subsidisation in Australia. This study evaluated local trends in the use of these two medications.MethodsPrescription data for this analysis were obtained from the PBS Item Reports for the period May 2017-May 2020. Population data were extracted from the Australian Bureau of Statistics data cubes. A descriptive approach was used to conduct and report the analysis to illustrate trends in the use of these two medications and associated costs.ResultsThere were 44 010 prescriptions processed for the treatment for IPF in the 3-year period. Nintedanib use was higher than pirfenidone use, accounting for 54% of prescriptions. New South Wales accounted for 35% of the total prescriptions but, when standardised against population size, the Australian Capital Territory accounted for the highest proportion of prescriptions (24%). Prescriptions for nintedanib and pirfenidone were associated with a total cost of A$131 377 951 over the period 2017-20.ConclusionThis study provides initial information on prescription rates, practices and expenditure for pirfenidone and nintedanib. In addition, we provide some insight into possible pharmacological and epidemiological trends based on jurisdictional differences. Together, the results from this study provide a platform for future research given the dearth of information on IPF in Australia.What is known about the topic?Data regarding trends in the utilisation of antifibrotics for the treatment of IPF in Australia are currently limited.What does this paper add?This study demonstrated that nintedanib use was slightly higher than pirfenidone use, and that there were variations in jurisdictional prescribing practices. The highest number of prescriptions and costs were attributable to New South Wales but, when standardised against population size, the Australian Capital Territory had the highest number of prescriptions and costs.What are the implications for practitioners?This study provides some insights into the use of pirfenidone and nintedanib, as well as pharmacoepidemiological trends, in Australia, which is useful for economic evaluation and modelling future health expenditure.

Pharmacometrics meets statistics-A synergy for modern drug development

Modern drug development problems are very complex and require integration of various scientific fields. Traditionally, statistical methods have been the primary tool for design and analysis of clinical trials. Increasingly, pharmacometric approaches using physiology-based drug and disease models are applied in this context. In this paper, we show that statistics and pharmacometrics have more in common than what keeps them apart, and collectively, the synergy from these two quantitative disciplines can provide greater advances in clinical research and development, resulting in novel and more effective medicines to patients with medical need.

Model-Based Meta-Analysis Compares DAS28 Rheumatoid Arthritis Treatment Effects and Suggests an Expedited Trial Design for Early Clinical Development

A nonlinear mixed effects modeling approach was used to conduct a model‐based meta‐analysis (MBMA) of longitudinal, summary‐level, baseline‐corrected 28‐joint Disease Activity Score (ΔDAS28) clinical trial data from seven approved rheumatoid arthritis (RA) drugs (abatacept, adalimumab, certolizumab, etanercept, rituximab, tocilizumab, and tofacitinib), representing 130 randomized clinical trials in 27,355 patients. All of the drugs except tocilizumab were found to have relatively similar ΔDAS28 time courses and efficacy (baseline‐corrected and placebo‐corrected) at 24 weeks and beyond of approximately 0.87–1.3 units in the typical RA patient population. Tocilizumab was estimated to have a differentially greater response of 1.99 at 24 weeks, likely due to its disproportionate effect on the acute‐phase cytokine interleukin‐6. Baseline DAS28, disease duration, percentage of male participants, and the year of conduct of the trial were found to have statistically significant effects on the timing and/or magnitude of ΔDAS28 in the control arms. Clinical trial simulations using the present MBMA indicated that abatacept, certolizumab, etanercept, tocilizumab, and tofacitinib would be expected to have a greater than 70% probability of showing a statistically significant difference vs. control at Week 6 with a sample size of ~ 30 patients per arm. In future RA clinical trials, an interim analysis conducted as early as 6 weeks after treatment initiation, with relatively small sample sizes, should be sufficient to detect the ΔDAS28 treatment effect vs. placebo.

Danhong injection in the treatment of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: A protocol for systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Many studies have reported that the effects of danhong injection on idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. However, its effects are still not well understood. The aim of this study is to assess the effects of danhong injection in the management of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

METHODS

Electronic databases such as PubMed, MEDLINE, EMbase, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, WanFang, the Chongqing VIP Chinese Science and Technology Periodical Database, and China biomedical literature database will be searched without limitations of language and geographical location. Two researchers will independently conduct research selection, data extraction, and research quality assessment. The RevMan 5.3 software and Stata 14.0 software are used for statistical analysis.

RESULTS

This study will provide high-quality comprehensive evidence for the effectiveness and safety of danhong injection in the treatment of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

CONCLUSIONS

The results obtained from this study will define the basis for the effectiveness and safety of danhong injection in the treatment of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

The response-time relationship and covariate effects of acupuncture for chronic pain: A systematic review and model-based longitudinal meta-analysis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Critical clinical questions regarding how soon and how long the analgesic effect will be achieved by acupuncture, as well as who will be responsive to acupuncture, need further address. The aim of the study was to investigate the response-time relationship and covariate effects of acupuncture.

DATABASES AND DATA TREATMENT

PubMed and EMBASE were searched up to December 2018 for randomized controlled trials that involved sham acupuncture, true acupuncture and conventional therapy. We used a model-based longitudinal meta-analysis to characterize the response-time profile of these treatments.

RESULTS

Seventy-seven randomized clinical trials involved chronic shoulder, neck, knee and low back pain were included. The response-time analysis suggested that the treatment duration of acupuncture will be 5 weeks or more to achieve 80% of maximum analgesic effect. Moreover a lower baseline pain intensity and the location of low back pain resulted in a lower pain relief of acupuncture intervention. The absolute maximum analgesic effects of sham acupuncture and conventional therapy were 22.6 and 15.8 points at a 0-100 NRS scale. The absolute effect of true acupuncture was 26.1 points for low back pain (relative effect of 3.5 and 9.4 points to sham and conventional therapy), 34.9 points for other pain body locations (relative effect of 12.3 and 19.1 points to sham and conventional therapy), in patients with a baseline pain intensity of 60 points.

CONCLUSION

The treatment duration of acupuncture will not be less than 5 weeks to achieve 80% maximum analgesic effect. Higher analgesic effect was related to higher baseline pain intensity and pain location of neck, shoulder and knee.

SIGNIFICANCE

Our systematic review and meta-analysis provides the clear evidence for the treatment duration and significant related covariates of acupuncture intervention for chronic pain. These results provide useful suggestion for acupuncture intervention in clinical pain management.

Bacterial burden in the lower airways predicts disease progression in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and is independent of radiological disease extent

Increasing bacterial burden in the lower airways of patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis confers an increased risk of disease progression and mortality. However, it remains unclear whether this increased bacterial burden directly influences progression of fibrosis or simply reflects the magnitude of the underlying disease extent or severity.We prospectively recruited 193 patients who underwent bronchoscopy and received a multidisciplinary diagnosis of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. Quantification of the total bacterial burden in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid was performed by 16S rRNA gene qPCR. Imaging was independently evaluated by two readers assigning quantitative scores for extent, severity and topography of radiographic changes and relationship of these features with bacterial burden was assessed.Increased bacterial burden significantly associated with disease progression (HR 2.1; 95% CI 1.287-3.474; p=0.0028). Multivariate stepwise regression demonstrated no relationship between bacterial burden and radiological features or extent of disease. When specifically considering patients with definite or probable usual interstitial pneumonia there was no difference in bacterial burden between these two groups. Despite a postulated association between pleuroparenchymal fibroelastosis and clinical infection, there was no relationship between either the presence or extent of pleuroparenchymal fibroelastosis and bacterial burden.We demonstrate that bacterial burden in the lower airways is not simply secondary to the extent of the underlying architectural destruction of the lung parenchyma seen in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. The independent nature of this association supports a relationship with the underlying pathogenic mechanisms and highlights the urgent need for functional studies.

Model-Based Meta-Analysis in Ankylosing Spondylitis: A Quantitative Comparison of Biologics and Small Targeted Molecules

Information on the comparative efficacy is important for drug development as well as drug therapy. Up to now, the relative efficacy of approved biologics and many agents under investigation in ankylosing spondylitis (AS) are still unclear. The objective of this study was to quantify the relative efficacy and time course of various treatments measured by the Ankylosing Spondylitis Assessment Study group response criteria 20 scores (ASAS20), change from baseline in Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Index (BASDAI), and Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Functional Index (BASFI). There were 34 double-blinded trials of 10 biologics and small molecules encompassing 5,339 patients with AS were included in this analysis. Three mathematical models with nonparametric placebo estimations were used to describe the longitudinal profile for the above three efficacy measures. The results detected significant differences among included treatments, and infliximab and golimumab were found to have the highest efficacy in given dosage regimens across all measures.