Perspective on the State of Pharmacometrics and Systems Pharmacology Integration

Advancing pharmacometrics in Africa-Transition from capacity development toward job creation

Trained pharmacometricians remain scarce in Africa due to limited training opportunities, lack of a pharmaceutical product development ecosystem, and emigration to high-income countries. The Applied Pharmacometrics Training (APT) fellowship program was established to address these gaps and specifically foster job creation for talent retention. We review the APT program's progress over 3 years and encourage collaboration to enhance local clinical data analysis in Africa. Initiated in 2021 by Pharmacometrics Africa, a non-profit educational entity, with support from partners including the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Certara, the APT program targets African doctoral-level scientists and clinicians. This 6-month program is jointly managed by partners, with Pharmacometrics Africa handling logistics and sponsor liaison. Job creation initiatives include inviting fellows to join consulting teams or local research centers. Over the 3 year reporting period, 177 applications were received, with 27 individuals (41% female, median age 35 years) from nine African countries selected into and completing the full program. The fellows worked on 13 data analysis projects, with six so far being presented at international conferences and/or submitted for publication in peer-reviewed journals. Nine fellows have joined consulting teams or research centers working from offices in Africa. Currently, in the 3rd year, the APT program has demonstrated success in skills development, job creation, and fostering a critical mass of African pharmacometricians. Collaboration is essential for the sustainable advancement of model-informed drug development in Africa.

Realizing the promise of Project Optimus: Challenges and emerging opportunities for dose optimization in oncology drug development

Project Optimus is a US Food and Drug Administration Oncology Center of Excellence initiative aimed at reforming the dose selection and optimization paradigm in oncology drug development. This project seeks to bring together pharmaceutical companies, international regulatory agencies, academic institutions, patient advocates, and other stakeholders. Although there is much promise in this initiative, there are several challenges that need to be addressed, including multidimensionality of the dose optimization problem in oncology, the heterogeneity of cancer and patients, importance of evaluating long-term tolerability beyond dose-limiting toxicities, and the lack of reliable biomarkers for long-term efficacy. Through the lens of Totality of Evidence and with the mindset of model-informed drug development, we offer insights into dose optimization by building a quantitative knowledge base integrating diverse sources of data and leveraging quantitative modeling tools to build evidence for drug dosage considering exposure, disease biology, efficacy, toxicity, and patient factors. We believe that rational dose optimization can be achieved in oncology drug development, improving patient outcomes by maximizing therapeutic benefit while minimizing toxicity.

Pharmacometrics: A New Era of Pharmacotherapy and Drug Development in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

Pharmacotherapy, in many cases, is practiced at a suboptimal level of performance in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) although stupendous amounts of data are available regularly. The process of drug development is time-consuming, costly, and is also associated with loads of hurdles related to the safety concerns of the compounds. This review was conducted with the objective to emphasize the role of pharmacometrics in pharmacotherapy and the drug development process in LMICs for rational drug therapy. Pharmacometrics is widely applied for the rational clinical pharmacokinetic (PK) practice through the population pharmacokinetic (popPK) modeling and physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling approach. The scope of pharmacometrics practice is getting wider day by day with the untiring efforts of pharmacometricians. The basis for pharmacometrics analysis is the computer-based modeling and simulation of pharmacokinetics/pharmacodynamics (PK/PD) data supplemented by characterization of important aspects of drug safety and efficacy. Pharmacometrics can be considered an invaluable tool not only for new drug development with maximum safety and efficacy but also for dose optimization in clinical settings. Due to the convenience of using sparse and routine patient data, a significant advantage exists in this regard for LMICs which would otherwise lag behind in clinical trials.

Perspective on model-informed drug development

Model-informed drug development (MIDD) is a process intended to expedite drug development, enhance regulatory science, and produce benefits for patients. Quantitative modeling and simulation-principally by population pharmacokinetics (PK), exposure-response, and physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) analysis-is the technology that provides the capability to deploy MIDD across a range of applications. MIDD was codified in the 2017 Prescription Drug User Fee Act Reauthorization ¹ (PDUFA VI, 2018-2022) and a performance goal was a MIDD pilot program to hold 2 to 4 industry-U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) paired meetings quarterly through 2022.

Systems Modeling to Quantify Safety Risks in Early Drug Development: Using Bifurcation Analysis and Agent-Based Modeling as Examples

Quantitative Systems Toxicology (QST) models, recapitulating pharmacokinetics and mechanism of action together with the organic response at multiple levels of biological organization, can provide predictions on the magnitude of injury and recovery dynamics to support study design and decision-making during drug development. Here, we highlight the application of QST models to predict toxicities of cancer treatments, such as cytopenia(s) and gastrointestinal adverse effects, where narrow therapeutic indexes need to be actively managed. The importance of bifurcation analysis is demonstrated in QST models of hematologic toxicity to understand how different regions of the parameter space generate different behaviors following cancer treatment, which results in asymptotically stable predictions, yet highly irregular for specific schedules, or oscillating predictions of blood cell levels. In addition, an agent-based model of the intestinal crypt was used to simulate how the spatial location of the injury within the crypt affects the villus disruption severity. We discuss the value of QST modeling approaches to support drug development and how they align with technological advances impacting trial design including patient selection, dose/regimen selection, and ultimately patient safety.

Beyond Deterministic Models in Drug Discovery and Development

The model-informed drug discovery and development paradigm is now well established among the pharmaceutical industry and regulatory agencies. This success has been mainly due to the ability of pharmacometrics to bring together different modeling strategies, such as population pharmacokinetics/pharmacodynamics (PK/PD) and systems biology/pharmacology. However, there are promising quantitative approaches that are still seldom used by pharmacometricians and that deserve consideration. One such case is the stochastic modeling approach, which can be important when modeling small populations because random events can have a huge impact on these systems. In this review, we aim to raise awareness of stochastic models and how to combine them with existing modeling techniques, with the ultimate goal of making future drug-disease models more versatile and realistic.

Exposure-Response Assessment in Pediatric Drug Development Studies Submitted to the US Food and Drug Administration

Exposure-response (E-R) modeling provides a quantitative tool to leverage adult data to support pediatric trial design and drug approval. The pediatric E-R studies submitted to US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) between 2007 and 2018 were surveyed in the context of various types of trial designs supporting drug approval in the pediatric population. The applications of E-R evaluation in pediatric drug development programs are mainly focused on three areas: (i) supporting pediatric extrapolation when the E-R relationships are similar between the pediatric and adult populations; (ii) dose selection to balance the risk-benefit profile based on the change in efficacy and safety response with different exposure levels; and (iii) approval of a new formulation, new dosing regimen, or new route of administration, where E-R evaluation helps quantify the change in clinical response between the old and new strategies. E-R modeling will continue to play an expanded role in pediatric drug development in the future.