Importance of Stability Analysis When Using Nonlinear Semimechanistic Models to Describe Drug-Induced Hematotoxicity

Simulating combined monoaminergic depletions in a PD animal model through a bio-constrained differential equations system

Introduction

Historically, Parkinson's Disease (PD) research has focused on the dysfunction of dopamine-producing cells in the substantia nigra pars compacta, which is linked to motor regulation in the basal ganglia. Therapies have mainly aimed at restoring dopamine (DA) levels, showing effectiveness but variable outcomes and side effects. Recent evidence indicates that PD complexity implicates disruptions in DA, noradrenaline (NA), and serotonin (5-HT) systems, which may underlie the variations in therapy effects.

Methods

We present a system-level bio-constrained computational model that comprehensively investigates the dynamic interactions between these neurotransmitter systems. The model was designed to replicate experimental data demonstrating the impact of NA and 5-HT depletion in a PD animal model, providing insights into the causal relationships between basal ganglia regions and neuromodulator release areas.

Results

The model successfully replicates experimental data and generates predictions regarding changes in unexplored brain regions, suggesting avenues for further investigation. It highlights the potential efficacy of alternative treatments targeting the locus coeruleus and dorsal raphe nucleus, though these preliminary findings require further validation. Sensitivity analysis identifies critical model parameters, offering insights into key factors influencing brain area activity. A stability analysis underscores the robustness of our mathematical formulation, bolstering the model validity.

Discussion

Our holistic approach emphasizes that PD is a multifactorial disorder and opens promising avenues for early diagnostic tools that harness the intricate interactions among monoaminergic systems. Investigating NA and 5-HT systems alongside the DA system may yield more effective, subtype-specific therapies. The exploration of multisystem dysregulation in PD is poised to revolutionize our understanding and management of this complex neurodegenerative disorder.

Systems Modeling to Quantify Safety Risks in Early Drug Development: Using Bifurcation Analysis and Agent-Based Modeling as Examples

Quantitative Systems Toxicology (QST) models, recapitulating pharmacokinetics and mechanism of action together with the organic response at multiple levels of biological organization, can provide predictions on the magnitude of injury and recovery dynamics to support study design and decision-making during drug development. Here, we highlight the application of QST models to predict toxicities of cancer treatments, such as cytopenia(s) and gastrointestinal adverse effects, where narrow therapeutic indexes need to be actively managed. The importance of bifurcation analysis is demonstrated in QST models of hematologic toxicity to understand how different regions of the parameter space generate different behaviors following cancer treatment, which results in asymptotically stable predictions, yet highly irregular for specific schedules, or oscillating predictions of blood cell levels. In addition, an agent-based model of the intestinal crypt was used to simulate how the spatial location of the injury within the crypt affects the villus disruption severity. We discuss the value of QST modeling approaches to support drug development and how they align with technological advances impacting trial design including patient selection, dose/regimen selection, and ultimately patient safety.