Opening a debate on open-source modeling tools: Pouring fuel on fire versus extinguishing the flare of a healthy debate

Realizing the promise of Project Optimus: Challenges and emerging opportunities for dose optimization in oncology drug development

Project Optimus is a US Food and Drug Administration Oncology Center of Excellence initiative aimed at reforming the dose selection and optimization paradigm in oncology drug development. This project seeks to bring together pharmaceutical companies, international regulatory agencies, academic institutions, patient advocates, and other stakeholders. Although there is much promise in this initiative, there are several challenges that need to be addressed, including multidimensionality of the dose optimization problem in oncology, the heterogeneity of cancer and patients, importance of evaluating long-term tolerability beyond dose-limiting toxicities, and the lack of reliable biomarkers for long-term efficacy. Through the lens of Totality of Evidence and with the mindset of model-informed drug development, we offer insights into dose optimization by building a quantitative knowledge base integrating diverse sources of data and leveraging quantitative modeling tools to build evidence for drug dosage considering exposure, disease biology, efficacy, toxicity, and patient factors. We believe that rational dose optimization can be achieved in oncology drug development, improving patient outcomes by maximizing therapeutic benefit while minimizing toxicity.

The Role of Model Master Files for Sharing, Acceptance, and Communication with FDA

With the evolving role of Model Integrated Evidence (MIE) in generic drug development and regulatory applications, the need for improving Model Sharing, Acceptance, and Communication with the FDA is warranted. Model Master File (MMF) refers to a quantitative model or a modeling platform that has undergone sufficient model Verification & Validation to be recognized as sharable intellectual property that is acceptable for regulatory purposes. MMF provides a framework for regulatorily acceptable modeling practice, which can be used with confidence to support MIE by both the industry and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). In 2022, the FDA and the Center for Research on Complex Generics (CRCG) hosted a virtual public workshop to discuss the best practices for utilizing modeling approaches to support generic product development. This report summarizes the presentations and panel discussions of the workshop symposium entitled "Model Sharing, Acceptance, and Communication with the FDA". The symposium and this report serve as a kick-off discussion for further utilities of MMF and best practices of utilizing MMF in drug development and regulatory submissions. The potential advantages of MMFs have garnered acknowledgment from model developers, industries, and the FDA throughout the workshop. To foster a unified comprehension of MMFs and establish best practices for their application, further dialogue and cooperation among stakeholders are imperative. To this end, a subsequent workshop is scheduled for May 2-3, 2024, in Rockville, Maryland, aiming to delve into the practical facets and best practices of MMFs pertinent to regulatory submissions involving modeling and simulation methodologies.

In-depth analysis of patterns in selection of different physiologically-based pharmacokinetic modeling tools: Part II - Assessment of model reusability and comparison between open and non-open source-code software

Whilst the reproducibility of models in the area of systems biology and quantitative systems pharmacology has been the focus of attention lately, the concept of 'reusability' is not addressed. With the advent of the 'Model Master File' dominating some regulatory discussions on pharmaceutical applications of physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models, reusability becomes a vital aspect of confidence in their use. Herein, we define 'reusability' specifically in the context of PBPK models and investigate the influence of open versus non-open source-code (NOSC) nature of the software on the extent of 'reusability'. Original articles (n = 145) that were associated with the development of novel PBPK models were identified as source models and citations to these reports, which involved further PBPK model development, were explored (n > 1800) for reuse cases of the source PBPK model whether in full or partial form. The nature of source-code was a major determinant of external reusability for PBPK models (>50% of the NOSC models as opposed <25% of open source-code [OSC]). Full reusability of the models was not common and mostly involved internal reuse of the OSC model (by the group who had previously developed the original model). The results were stratified by the software utilised (various), organisations involved (academia, industry, regulatory), and type of reusability (full vs. partial). The clear link between external reuse of models and NOSC PBPK software might stem from many elements related to quality and trust that require further investigation, and challenges the unfounded notion that OSC models are associated with higher uptake for reuse.

In-depth analysis of patterns in selection of different physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling tools: PartI - Applications and rationale behind the use of open source-code software

PBPK applications published in the literature support a greater adoption of non-open source-code (NOSC) software as opposed to open source-code (OSC) alternatives. However, a significant number of PBPK modelers are still using OSC software, understanding the rationale for the use of this modality is important and may help those embarking on PBPK modeling. No previous analysis of PBPK modeling trends has included the rationale of the modeler. An in-depth analysis of PBPK applications of OSC software is warranted to determine the true impact of OSC software on the rise of PBPK. Publications focussing on PBPK modeling applications, which used OSC software, were identified by systematically searching the scientific literature for original articles. A total of 171 articles were extracted from the narrowed subset. The rise in the use of OSC software for PBPK applications was greater than the general discipline of pharmacokinetics (9 vs. 4), but less than the overall growth of the PBPK area (9 vs. 43). Our report demonstrates conclusively that the surge in PBPK usage is primarily attributable to the availability and implementations of NOSC software. Modelers preferred not to share the reasons for their selection of certain modeling software and no 'explicit' rationale was given to support the use of OSC analysed by this study. As the preference for NOSC versus OSC software tools in the PBPK area continues to be divided, initiatives to add the rationale in using one form over another to every future PBPK modeling report will be a welcomed and informative addition.

Current practices for QSP model assessment: an IQ consortium survey

Quantitative Systems Pharmacology (QSP) modeling is increasingly applied in the pharmaceutical industry to influence decision making across a wide range of stages from early discovery to clinical development to post-marketing activities. Development of standards for how these models are constructed, assessed, and communicated is of active interest to the modeling community and regulators but is complicated by the wide variability in the structures and intended uses of the underlying models and the diverse expertise of QSP modelers. With this in mind, the IQ Consortium conducted a survey across the pharmaceutical/biotech industry to understand current practices for QSP modeling. This article presents the survey results and provides insights into current practices and methods used by QSP practitioners based on model type and the intended use at various stages of drug development. The survey also highlights key areas for future development including better integration with statistical methods, standardization of approaches towards virtual populations, and increased use of QSP models for late-stage clinical development and regulatory submissions.

Guide to development of compound files for PBPK modeling in the Simcyp population-based simulator

The Simcyp Simulator is a software platform for population physiologically‐based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling and simulation. It links in vitro data to in vivo absorption, distribution, metabolism, excretion and pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic outcomes to explore clinical scenarios and support drug development decisions, including regulatory submissions and drug labels. This tutorial describes the different input parameters required, as well as the considerations needed when developing a PBPK model within the Simulator, for a small molecule intended for oral administration. A case study showing the development and application of a PBPK model for ondansetron is herein used to aid the understanding of different PBPK model development concepts.

Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic Modeling Approaches for Patients with SARS-CoV-2 Infection: A Case Study with Imatinib

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2) infection, which causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19), manifests as mild respiratory symptoms to severe respiratory failure and is associated with inflammation and other physiological changes. Of note, substantial increases in plasma concentrations of α₁‐acid‐glycoprotein and interleukin‐6 have been observed among patients admitted to the hospital with advanced SARS‐CoV‐2 infection. A physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) approach is a useful tool to evaluate and predict disease‐related changes on drug pharmacokinetics. A PBPK model of imatinib has previously been developed and verified in healthy people and patients with cancer. In this study, the PBPK model of imatinib was successfully extrapolated to patients with SARS‐CoV‐2 infection by accounting for disease‐related changes in plasma α₁‐acid‐glycoprotein concentrations and the potential drug interaction between imatinib and dexamethasone. The model demonstrated a good predictive performance in describing total and unbound imatinib concentrations in patients with SARS‐CoV‐2 infection. PBPK simulations highlight that an equivalent dose of imatinib may lead to substantially higher total drug concentrations in patients with SARS‐CoV‐2 infection compared to that in patients with cancer, while the unbound concentrations remain comparable between the 2 patient populations. This supports the notion that unbound trough concentration is a better exposure metric for dose adjustment of imatinib in patients with SARS‐CoV‐2 infection, compared to the corresponding total drug concentration. Potential strategies for refinement and generalization of the PBPK modeling approach in the patient population with SARS‐CoV‐2 are also provided in this article, which could be used to guide study design and inform dose adjustment in the future.

Increasing application of pediatric physiologically based pharmacokinetic models across academic and industry organizations

There has been a significant increase in the use of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models during the past 20 years, especially for pediatrics. The aim of this study was to give a detailed overview of the growth and areas of application of pediatric PBPK (P‐PBPK) models. A total of 181 publications and publicly available regulatory reviews were identified and categorized according to year, author affiliation, platform, and primary application of the P‐PBPK model (in clinical settings, drug development or to advance pediatric model development in general). Secondary application areas, including dose selection, biologics, and drug interactions, were also assessed. The growth rate for P‐PBPK modeling increased 33‐fold between 2005 and 2020; this was mainly attributed to growth in clinical and drug development applications. For primary applications, 50% of articles were classified under clinical, 18% under drug development, and 33% under model development. The most common secondary applications were dose selection (75% drug development), pharmacokinetic prediction and covariate identification (47% clinical), and model parameter identification (68% model development), respectively. Although population PK modeling remains the mainstay of approaches supporting pediatric drug development, the data presented here demonstrate the widespread application of P‐PBPK models in both drug development and clinical settings. Although applications for pharmacokinetic and drug–drug interaction predictions in pediatrics is advocated, this approach remains underused in areas such as assessment of pediatric formulations, toxicology, and trial design. The increasing number of publications supporting the development and refinement of the pediatric model parameters can only serve to enhance optimal use of P‐PBPK models.

In Vitro to In Vivo Extrapolation Linked to Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Models for Assessing the Brain Drug Disposition

Drug development for the central nervous system (CNS) is a complex endeavour with low success rates, as the structural complexity of the brain and specifically the blood-brain barrier (BBB) poses tremendous challenges. Several in vitro brain systems have been evaluated, but the ultimate use of these data in terms of translation to human brain concentration profiles remains to be fully developed. Thus, linking up in vitro-to-in vivo extrapolation (IVIVE) strategies to physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models of brain is a useful effort that allows better prediction of drug concentrations in CNS components. Such models may overcome some known aspects of inter-species differences in CNS drug disposition. Required physiological (i.e. systems) parameters in the model are derived from quantitative values in each organ. However, due to the inability to directly measure brain concentrations in humans, compound-specific (drug) parameters are often obtained from in silico or in vitro studies. Such data are translated through IVIVE which could be also applied to preclinical in vivo observations. In such exercises, the limitations of the assays and inter-species differences should be adequately understood in order to verify these predictions with the observed concentration data. This report summarizes the state of IVIVE-PBPK-linked models and discusses shortcomings and areas of further research for better prediction of CNS drug disposition.

Physiologically-based pharmacokinetic model predictions of inter-ethnic differences in imatinib pharmacokinetics and dosing regimens

AIMS

This study implements a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modelling approach to investigate inter-ethnic differences in imatinib pharmacokinetics and dosing regimens.

METHODS

A PBPK model of imatinib was built in the Simcyp Simulator (version 17) integrating in vitro drug metabolism and clinical pharmacokinetic data. The model accounts for ethnic differences in body size and abundance of drug-metabolising enzymes and proteins involved in imatinib disposition. Utility of this model for prediction of imatinib pharmacokinetics was evaluated across different dosing regimens and ethnic groups. The impact of ethnicity on imatinib dosing was then assessed based on the established range of trough concentrations (C_ss,min ).

RESULTS

The PBPK model of imatinib demonstrated excellent predictive performance in describing pharmacokinetics and the attained C_ss,min in patients from different ethnic groups, shown by prediction differences that were within 1.25-fold of the clinically-reported values in published studies. PBPK simulation suggested a similar dose of imatinib (400-600 mg/d) to achieve the desirable range of C_ss,min (1000-3200 ng/mL) in populations of European, Japanese and Chinese ancestry. The simulation indicated that patients of African ancestry may benefit from a higher initial dose (600-800 mg/d) to achieve imatinib target concentrations, due to a higher apparent clearance (CL/F) of imatinib compared to other ethnic groups; however, the clinical data to support this are currently limited.

CONCLUSION

PBPK simulations highlighted a potential ethnic difference in the recommended initial dose of imatinib between populations of European and African ancestry, but not populations of Chinese and Japanese ancestry.

Physiologically based pharmacokinetic modelling in pregnancy: Model reproducibility and external validation

AIMS

Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models have been previously developed for betamethasone and buprenorphine for pregnant women. The goal of this work was to replicate and reassess these models using data from recently completed studies.

METHODS

Betamethasone and buprenorphine PBPK models were developed in Simcyp V19 based on prior publications using V17 and V15. Ability to replicate models was verified by comparing predictions in V19 to those previously published. Once replication was verified, models were reassessed by comparing predictions to observed data from additional studies in pregnant women. Model performance was based upon visual inspection of concentration vs. time profiles, and comparison of pharmacokinetic parameters. Models were deemed reproducible if parameter estimates were within 10% of previously reported values. External validations were considered acceptable if the predicted area under the concentration-time curve (AUC) and peak plasma concentration fell within 2-fold of the observed.

RESULTS

The betamethasone model was successfully replicated using Simcyp V19, with ratios of reported (V17) to reproduced (V19) peak plasma concentration of 0.98-1.04 and AUC of 0.95-1.07. The model-predicted AUC ratios ranged from 0.98-1.79 compared to external data. The previously published buprenorphine PBPK model was not reproducible, as we predicted intravenous clearance of 70% that reported previously (both in Simcyp V15).

CONCLUSION

While high interstudy variability was observed in the newly available clinical data, the PBPK model sufficiently predicted changes in betamethasone exposure across gestation. Model reproducibility and reassessment with external data are important for the advancement of the discipline. PBPK modelling publications should contain sufficient detail and clarity to enable reproducibility.

A latent variable approach to account for correlated inputs in global sensitivity analysis

In drug development decision-making is often supported through model-based methods, such as physiologically-based pharmacokinetics (PBPK). Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is gaining use for quality assessment of model-informed inference. However, the inclusion and interpretation of correlated factors in GSA has proven an issue. Here we developed and evaluated a latent variable approach for dealing with correlated factors in GSA. An approach was developed that describes the correlation between two model inputs through the causal relationship of three independent factors: the latent variable and the unique variances of the two correlated parameters. The latent variable approach was applied to a set of algebraic models and a case from PBPK. Then, this method was compared to Sobol’s GSA assuming no correlations, Sobol’s GSA with groups and the Kucherenko approach. For the latent variable approach, GSA was performed with Sobol’s method. By using the latent variable approach, it is possible to devise a unique and easy interpretation of the sensitivity indices while maintaining the correlation between the factors. Compared methods either consider the parameters independent, group the dependent variables into one unique factor or present difficulties in the interpretation of the sensitivity indices. In situations where GSA is called upon to support model-informed decision-making, the latent variable approach offers a practical method, in terms of ease of implementation and interpretability, for applying GSA to models with correlated inputs that does not violate the independence assumption. Prerequisites and limitations of the approach are discussed.