A Joint Model for the Kinetics of CTC Count and PSA Concentration During Treatment in Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer

A comprehensive regulatory and industry review of modeling and simulation practices in oncology clinical drug development

Exposure-response (E-R) analyses are an integral component in the development of oncology products. Characterizing the relationship between drug exposure metrics and response allows the sponsor to use modeling and simulation to address both internal and external drug development questions (e.g., optimal dose, frequency of administration, dose adjustments for special populations). This white paper is the output of an industry-government collaboration among scientists with broad experience in E-R modeling as part of regulatory submissions. The goal of this white paper is to provide guidance on what the preferred methods for E-R analysis in oncology clinical drug development are and what metrics of exposure should be considered.

Application of a count data model to evaluate the anti-metastatic efficacy of QAP14 in 4T1 breast cancer allografts

Dopamine D1 receptor (D1DR) is proved to be a promising target to prevent tumor metastasis, and our previous studies showed that QAP14, a potent anti-cancer agent, exerted inhibitory effect on lung metastasis via D1DR activation. Therefore, the purpose of the study was to establish count data models to quantitatively characterize the disease progression of lung metastasis and assess the anti-metastatic effect of QAP14. Data of metastatic progression were collected in 4T1 tumor-bearing mice. Generalized Poisson distribution best described the variability of metastasis counts among the individuals. An empirical PK/PD model was developed to establish mathematical relationships between steady plasma concentrations of QAP14 and metastasis growth dynamics. The latency period of metastasis was estimated to be 12 days after tumor implantation. Our model structure also fitted well to other D1DR agonists (fenoldopam and l-stepholidine) which had inhibitory impact on breast cancer lung metastasis likewise. QAP14 40 mg/kg showed the best inhibitory efficacy, for it provided the longest prolongation of metastasis-free periods compared with fenoldopam or l-stepholidine. This study provides a quantitative method to describe the lung metastasis progression of 4T1 allografts, as well as an alternative PD model structure to evaluate anti-metastatic efficacy.

Sensitizing drug-resistant cancer cells from blood using microfluidic electroporator

Direct assessment of patient samples holds unprecedented potential in the treatment of cancer. Circulating tumor cells (CTCs) in liquid biopsies are a rapidly evolving source of primary cells in the clinic and are ideal candidates for functional assays to uncover real-time tumor information in real-time. However, a lack of routines allowing direct and active interrogation of CTCs directly from liquid biopsy samples represents a bottleneck for the translational use of liquid biopsies in clinical settings. To address this, we present a workflow for using a microfluidic vortex-assisted electroporation system designed for the functional assessment of CTCs purified from blood. Validation of this approach was assessed through drug response assays on wild-type (HCC827 wt) and gefitinib-resistant (HCC827 GR6) non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) cells. HCC827 cells trapped within microscale vortices were electroporated to sequentially deliver drug agents into the cytosol. Electroporation conditions facilitating multi-agent delivery were characterized for both cell lines using an automatic single-cell image fluorescence intensity algorithm. HCC827 GR6 cells spiked into the blood to emulate drug-resistant CTCs were able to be collected with high purity, demonstrating the ability of the device to minimize background cell impact for downstream sensitive cell assays. Using our proposed workflow, drug agent combinations to restore gefitinib sensitivity reflected the anticipated cytotoxic response. Taken together, these results represent a microfluidics multi-drug screening panel workflow that can enable functional interrogation of patient CTCs in situ, thereby accelerating the clinical standardization of liquid biopsies.

Comparing Circulating Tumor Cell Counts with Dynamic Tumor Size Changes as Predictor of Overall Survival: A Quantitative Modeling Framework

PURPOSE

Quantitative relationships between treatment-induced changes in tumor size and circulating tumor cell (CTC) counts, and their links to overall survival (OS), are lacking. We present a population modeling framework identifying and quantifying such relationships, based on longitudinal data collected in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) to evaluate the value of tumor size and CTC counts as predictors of OS.

EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN

A pharmacometric approach (i.e., population pharmacodynamic modeling) was used to characterize the changes in tumor size and CTC count and evaluate them as predictors of OS in 451 patients with mCRC treated with chemotherapy and targeted therapy in a prospectively randomized phase III study (CAIRO2).

RESULTS

A tumor size model of tumor quiescence and drug resistance was used to characterize the tumor size time-course, and was, in addition to the total normalized dose (i.e., of all administered drugs) in a given cycle, related to the CTC counts through a negative binomial model (CTC model). Tumor size changes did not contribute additional predictive value when the mean CTC count was a predictor of OS. Treatment reduced the typical mean count from 1.43 to 0.477 (HR = 3.94). The modeling framework was applied to explore whether dose modifications (increased and reduced) would result in a CTC count below 1/7.5 mL after 1 to 2 weeks of treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Time-varying CTC counts can be useful for early predicting OS in patients with mCRC, and may therefore have potential for model-based treatment individualization. Although tumor size was connected to CTC, its link to OS was weaker.

Bayesian Individual Dynamic Predictions with Uncertainty of Longitudinal Biomarkers and Risks of Survival Events in a Joint Modelling Framework: a Comparison Between Stan, Monolix, and NONMEM

Given a joint model and its parameters, Bayesian individual dynamic prediction (IDP) of biomarkers and risk of event can be performed for new patients at different landmark times using observed biomarker values. The aim of the present study was to compare IDP, with uncertainty, using Stan 2.18, Monolix 2018R2 and NONMEM 7.4. Simulations of biomarker and survival were performed using a nonlinear joint model of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) kinetics and survival in metastatic prostate cancer. Several scenarios were evaluated, according to the strength of the association between PSA and survival. For various landmark times, a posteriori distribution of PSA kinetic individual parameters was estimated, given individual observations, with each software. Samples of individual parameters were drawn from the posterior distribution. Bias and imprecision of individual parameters as well as coverage of 95% credibility interval for PSA and risk of death were evaluated. All software performed equally well with small biases on individual parameters. Imprecision on individual parameters was comparable across software and showed marked improvements with increasing landmark time. In terms of coverage, results were also comparable and all software were able to well predict PSA kinetics and survival. As for computing time, Stan was faster than Monolix and NONMEM to obtain individual parameters. Stan 2.18, Monolix 2018R2 and NONMEM 7.4 are able to characterize IDP of biomarkers and risk of event in a nonlinear joint modelling framework with correct uncertainty and hence could be used in the context of individualized medicine.

Challenging the dose-response-time data approach: Analysis of a complex system

This study presents an extensive dose-response-time (DRT) meta-analysis of the nicotinic acid-induced inhibition of free fatty acids and insulin release. The purpose was to quantify the implications of lacking exposure data when analysing complex pharmacodynamic systems. The DRT model successfully characterised various response behaviours-including time-delays, rebound, feedback mechanisms, and adaptation-on both the individual and the population level. Comparing the fitted DRT model to an exposure-driven reference analysis showed that bias and uncertainty were introduced in the parameter estimates. However, most estimates were within one standard error from the reference. In both approaches, a few parameters suffered from practical identifiability issues, likely due to large differences in half-lives of the different rate processes. Moreover, the optimal dosing strategies predicted by the DRT model differed slightly from those of the exposure-driven analysis, having a lower optimal steady-state reduction of free fatty acids exposure.

Liquid Biopsy Potential Biomarkers in Prostate Cancer

Prostate cancer (PCa) is the second most common cancer in men worldwide with an incidence of 14.8% and a mortality of 6.6%. Shortcomings in comprehensive medical check-ups in low- and middle-income countries lead to delayed detection of PCa and are causative of high numbers of advanced PCa cases at first diagnosis. The performance of available biomarkers is still insufficient and limited applicability, including logistical and financial burdens, impedes comprehensive implementation into health care systems. There is broad agreement on the need of new biomarkers to improve (i) early detection of PCa, (ii) risk stratification, (iii) prognosis, and (iv) treatment monitoring. This review focuses on liquid biopsy tests distinguishing high-grade significant (Gleason score (GS) ≥ 7) from low-grade indolent PCa. Available biomarkers still lack performance in risk stratification of biopsy naïve patients. However, biomarkers with highly negative predictive values may help to reduce unnecessary biopsies. Risk calculators using integrative scoring systems clearly improve decision-making for invasive prostate biopsy. Emerging biomarkers have the potential to substitute PSA and improve the overall performance of risk calculators. Until then, PSA should be used and may be replaced whenever enough evidence has accumulated for better performance of a new biomarker.

Utilization of data below the analytical limit of quantitation in pharmacokinetic analysis and modeling: promoting interdisciplinary debate

Traditionally, bioanalytical laboratories do not report actual concentrations for samples with results below the LOQ (BLQ) in pharmacokinetic studies. BLQ values are outside the method calibration range established during validation and no data are available to support the reliability of these values. However, ignoring BLQ data can contribute to bias and imprecision in model-based pharmacokinetic analyses. From this perspective, routine use of BLQ data would be advantageous. We would like to initiate an interdisciplinary debate on this important topic by summarizing the current concepts and use of BLQ data by regulators, pharmacometricians and bioanalysts. Through introducing the limit of detection and evaluating its variability, BLQ data could be released and utilized appropriately for pharmacokinetic research.

Emerging roles for clinical pharmacometrics in cancer precision medicine

Purpose of review

Although significant progress has been made in cancer research, there exist unmet needs in patient care as reflected by the 'Cancer Moonshot' goals. This review appreciates the potential utility of quantitative pharmacology in cancer precision medicine.

Recent findings

Precision oncology has received federal funding largely due to 'The Precision Medicine Initiative'. Precision medicine takes into account the inter-individual variability, and allows for tailoring the right medication or the right dose of drug to the best subpopulation of patients who will likely respond to the intervention, thus enhancing therapeutic success and reducing "financial toxicity" to patients, families and caregivers. The National Cancer Institute (NCI) committed US$ 70 million from its fiscal year 2016 budget to advance precision oncology research. Through the 'Critical Path Initiative', pharmacometrics has gained an important role in drug development; however, it is yet to find widespread clinical applicability.

Summary

Stakeholders including clinicians and pharmacometricians need to work in concert to ensure that benefits of model-based approaches are harnessed to personalize cancer care to the individual needs of the patient via better dosing strategies, companion diagnostics, and predictive biomarkers. In medical oncology, where immediate patient care is the clinician's primary concern, pharmacometric approaches can be tailored to build models that rely on patient data already digitally available in the Electronic Health Record (EHR) to facilitate quick collaboration and avoid additional funding needs. Taken together, we offer a roadmap for the future of precision oncology which is fraught with both challenges and opportunities for pharmacometricians and clinicians alike.

Circulating tumor cells in prostate cancer: Precision diagnosis and therapy

The primary cause of tumor-associated mortality in prostate cancer (PCa) remains distant metastasis. The dissemination of tumor cells from the primary tumor to distant sites through the bloodstream cannot be detected early by standard imaging methods. Circulating tumor cells (CTCs) represent an effective prognostic and predictive biomarker, which are able to monitor efficacy of adjuvant therapies, detect early development of metastases, and finally, assess therapeutic responses of advanced disease earlier than traditional diagnostic methods. In addition, since repeated tissue biopsies are invasive, costly and not always feasible, the assessment of tumor characteristics on CTCs, by a peripheral blood sample as a liquid biopsy, represents an attractive opportunity. The implementation of molecular and genomic characterization of CTCs may contribute to improve the treatment selection and thus, to move toward more precise diagnosis and therapy in PCa. The present study summarizes the current advances in CTC enrichment and detection strategies and reviews how CTCs may contribute to significant insights in the metastatic process, as well as how they may be utilized in clinical application in PCa. Although it is proposed that CTCs may offer insights into the prognosis and management of PCa, there are a number of challenges in the study of circulating tumor cells, and their clinical utility remains under investigation.

Nonlinear joint models for individual dynamic prediction of risk of death using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo: application to metastatic prostate cancer

BACKGROUND

Joint models of longitudinal and time-to-event data are increasingly used to perform individual dynamic prediction of a risk of event. However the difficulty to perform inference in nonlinear models and to calculate the distribution of individual parameters has long limited this approach to linear mixed-effect models for the longitudinal part. Here we use a Bayesian algorithm and a nonlinear joint model to calculate individual dynamic predictions. We apply this approach to predict the risk of death in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) patients with frequent Prostate-Specific Antigen (PSA) measurements.

METHODS

A joint model is built using a large population of 400 mCRPC patients where PSA kinetics is described by a biexponential function and the hazard function is a PSA-dependent function. Using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm implemented in Stan software and the estimated population parameters in this population as priors, the a posteriori distribution of the hazard function is computed for a new patient knowing his PSA measurements until a given landmark time. Time-dependent area under the ROC curve (AUC) and Brier score are derived to assess discrimination and calibration of the model predictions, first on 200 simulated patients and then on 196 real patients that are not included to build the model.

RESULTS

Satisfying coverage probabilities of Monte Carlo prediction intervals are obtained for longitudinal and hazard functions. Individual dynamic predictions provide good predictive performances for landmark times larger than 12 months and horizon time of up to 18 months for both simulated and real data.

CONCLUSIONS

As nonlinear joint models can characterize the kinetics of biomarkers and their link with a time-to-event, this approach could be useful to improve patient's follow-up and the early detection of most at risk patients.

Using the SAEM algorithm for mechanistic joint models characterizing the relationship between nonlinear PSA kinetics and survival in prostate cancer patients

Joint modeling is increasingly popular for investigating the relationship between longitudinal and time-to-event data. However, numerical complexity often restricts this approach to linear models for the longitudinal part. Here, we use a novel development of the Stochastic-Approximation Expectation Maximization algorithm that allows joint models defined by nonlinear mixed-effect models. In the context of chemotherapy in metastatic prostate cancer, we show that a variety of patterns for the Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA) kinetics can be captured by using a mechanistic model defined by nonlinear ordinary differential equations. The use of a mechanistic model predicts that biological quantities that cannot be observed, such as treatment-sensitive and treatment-resistant cells, may have a larger impact than PSA value on survival. This suggests that mechanistic joint models could constitute a relevant approach to evaluate the efficacy of treatment and to improve the prediction of survival in patients.

Bringing Model-Based Prediction to Oncology Clinical Practice: A Review of Pharmacometrics Principles and Applications

Despite much investment and progress, oncology is still an area with significant unmet medical needs, with new therapies and more effective use of current therapies needed. The emergent field of pharmacometrics combines principles from pharmacology (pharmacokinetics [PK] and pharmacodynamics [PD]), statistics, and computational modeling to support drug development and optimize the use of already marketed drugs. Although it has gained a role within drug development, its use in clinical practice remains scarce. The aim of the present study was to review the principal pharmacometric concepts and provide some examples of its use in oncology. Integrated population PK/PD/disease progression models as part of the pharmacometrics platform provide a powerful tool to predict outcomes so that the right dose can be given to the right patient to maximize drug efficacy and reduce drug toxicity. Population models often can be developed with routinely collected medical record data; therefore, we encourage the application of such models in the clinical setting by generating close collaborations between physicians and pharmacometricians.

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE

The present review details how the emerging field of pharmacometrics can integrate medical record data with predictive pharmacological and statistical models of drug response to optimize and individualize therapies. In order to make this routine practice in the clinic, greater awareness of the potential benefits of the field is required among clinicians, together with closer collaboration between pharmacometricians and clinicians to ensure the requisite data are collected in a suitable format for pharmacometrics analysis.