Incorporation of noninvasive assessments in risk prediction for pulmonary arterial hypertension

Prognostic Value of Serial Risk Stratification in Adult and Pediatric Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

In pulmonary arterial hypertension, it is recommended to base therapeutic decisions on risk stratification. This systematic review aims to report the prognostic value of serial risk stratification in adult and pediatric pulmonary arterial hypertension and to explore the usability of serial risk stratification as treatment target.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Electronic databases PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science were searched up to January 30, 2023, using terms associated with pulmonary arterial hypertension, pediatric pulmonary hypertension, and risk stratification. Observational studies and clinical trials describing risk stratification at both baseline and follow-up were included. Sixty five studies were eligible for inclusion, including only 2 studies in a pediatric population. C-statistic range at baseline was 0.31 to 0.77 and improved to 0.30 to 0.91 at follow-up. In 53% of patients, risk status changed (42% improved, 12% worsened) over 168 days (interquartile range, 137-327 days; n=22 studies). The average proportion of low-risk patients increased from 18% at baseline to 36% at a median follow-up of 244 days (interquartile range, 140-365 days; n=40 studies). In placebo-controlled drug studies, risk statuses of the intervention groups improved more and worsened less compared with the placebo groups. Furthermore, a low-risk status, but also an improved risk status, at follow-up was associated with a better outcome. Similar results were found in the 2 pediatric studies.

CONCLUSIONS

Follow-up risk stratification has improved prognostic value compared with baseline risk stratification, and change in risk status between baseline and follow-up corresponded to a change in survival. These data support the use of serial risk stratification as treatment target in pulmonary arterial hypertension.

Incorporation of noninvasive assessments in risk prediction for pulmonary arterial hypertension

Risk assessment for pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) utilizing noninvasive prognostic variables could be more practical in real-world scenarios, especially at follow-up reevaluations. Patients who underwent comprehensive evaluations both at baseline and at follow-up visits were enrolled. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality. Predictive variables identified by Cox analyses were further incorporated with the French noninvasive risk prediction approach. A total of 580 PAH patients were enrolled. During a median follow-up time of 47.0 months, 112 patients (19.3%) died. By multivariate Cox analyses, tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion (TAPSE), TAPSE/pulmonary arterial systolic pressure (PASP), and cardiopulmonary exercise testing-derived peak oxygen consumption (VO2) remained independent predictors for survival. Regarding the French noninvasive risk prediction method, substituting N-terminal pro-b-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) with the newly derived low-risk criteria of a TAPSE ≥ 17 mm or a TAPSE/PASP > 0.17 mm/mmHg, or alternating 6-min walking distance with a peak VO2 ≥ 44 %predicted retained the discrimination power. When recombining the low-risk criteria, the combination of World Health Organization functional class (WHO FC), TAPSE and peak VO2 at baseline, and the combination of WHO FC, NT-proBNP, and peak VO2 at follow-up showed better discriminative ability than the other combinations. In conclusion, Peak VO2, TAPSE, and TAPSE/PASP are significant prognostic predictors for survival in PAH, with incremental prognostic value when incorporated with the French noninvasive risk prediction approach, especially at reevaluations. For better risk prediction, WHO FC, at least one measurement of exercise capacity and one measurement of right ventricular function should be considered.