A method to estimate treatment efficacy among latent subgroups of a randomized clinical trial

Bayesian Sequential Design for Identifying and Ranking Effective Patient Subgroups in Precision Medicine in the Case of Counting Outcome Data with Inflated Zeros

Precision medicine is revolutionizing health care, particularly by addressing patient variability due to different biological profiles. As traditional treatments may not always be appropriate for certain patient subsets, the rise of biomarker-stratified clinical trials has driven the need for innovative methods. We introduced a Bayesian sequential scheme to evaluate therapeutic interventions in an intensive care unit setting, focusing on complex endpoints characterized by an excess of zeros and right truncation. By using a zero-inflated truncated Poisson model, we efficiently addressed this data complexity. The posterior distribution of rankings and the surface under the cumulative ranking curve (SUCRA) approach provided a comprehensive ranking of the subgroups studied. Different subsets of subgroups were evaluated depending on the availability of biomarker data. Interim analyses, accounting for early stopping for efficacy, were an integral aspect of our design. The simulation study demonstrated a high proportion of correct identification of the subgroup which is the most predictive of the treatment effect, as well as satisfactory false positive and true positive rates. As the role of personalized medicine grows, especially in the intensive care setting, it is critical to have designs that can manage complicated endpoints and that can control for decision error. Our method seems promising in this challenging context.

Oncologic Outcomes of Multi-Institutional Minimally Invasive Inguinal Lymph Node Dissection for Melanoma Compared with Open Inguinal Dissection in the Second Multicenter Selective Lymphadenectomy Trial (MSLT-II)

BACKGROUND

Minimally invasive inguinal lymphadenectomy (MILND) is safe and feasible, but limited data exist regarding oncologic outcomes.

METHODS

This study performed a multi-institutional retrospective cohort analysis of consecutive MILND performed for melanoma between January 2009 and June 2016. The open ILND (OILND) comparative cohort comprised patients enrolled in the second Multicenter Selective Lymphadenectomy Trial (MSLT-II) between December 2004 and March 2014.The pre-defined primary end point was the same-basin regional nodal recurrence, calculated using properties of binomial distribution. Time to events was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. The secondary end points were overall survival, progression-free survival, melanoma-specific survival (MSS), and distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS).

RESULTS

For all the patients undergoing MILND, the same-basin regional recurrence rate was 4.4 % (10/228; 95 % confidence interval [CI], 2.1-7.9 %): 8.2 % (4/49) for clinical nodal disease and 3.4 % (6/179) for patients with a positive sentinel lymph node (SLN) as the indication. For the 288 patients enrolled in MSLT-II who underwent OILND for a positive SLN, 17 (5.9 %) had regional node recurrence as their first event. After controlling for ulceration, positive LN count and positive non-SLNs at the time of lymphadenectomy, no difference in OS, PFS, MSS or DMFS was observed for patients with a positive SLN who underwent MILND versus OILND.

CONCLUSION

This large multi-institutional experience supports the oncologic safety of MILND for melanoma. The outcomes in this large multi-institutional experience of MILND compared favorably with those for an OILND population during similar periods, supporting the oncologic safety of MILND for melanoma.

Melanoma trials that defined surgical management

Treatment of regional lymph nodes in melanoma has been controversial for more than a century. A series of clinical trials evaluating elective lymph node dissection and then sentinel lymph node biopsy have helped define the current standard of care. These trials resulted in increasingly selective application of surgical intervention for regional lymph nodes in melanoma. First by focusing on optimal candidates for elective lymph node dissection and then by identifying patients through sentinel lymph node biopsy. The current standard of sentinel lymph node biopsy for appropriately selected patients and nodal observation for many patients, even with involved sentinel nodes is both more accurate in staging and much less morbid than what came before.

Instrumental variable estimation of early treatment effect in randomized screening trials

The primary analysis of randomized screening trials for cancer typically adheres to the intention-to-screen principle, measuring cancer-specific mortality reductions between screening and control arms. These mortality reductions result from a combination of the screening regimen, screening technology and the effect of the early, screening-induced, treatment. This motivates addressing these different aspects separately. Here we are interested in the causal effect of early versus delayed treatments on cancer mortality among the screening-detectable subgroup, which under certain assumptions is estimable from conventional randomized screening trial using instrumental variable type methods. To define the causal effect of interest, we formulate a simplified structural multi-state model for screening trials, based on a hypothetical intervention trial where screening detected individuals would be randomized into early versus delayed treatments. The cancer-specific mortality reductions after screening detection are quantified by a cause-specific hazard ratio. For this, we propose two estimators, based on an estimating equation and a likelihood expression. The methods extend existing instrumental variable methods for time-to-event and competing risks outcomes to time-dependent intermediate variables. Using the multi-state model as the basis of a data generating mechanism, we investigate the performance of the new estimators through simulation studies. In addition, we illustrate the proposed method in the context of CT screening for lung cancer using the US National Lung Screening Trial data.

Sentinel Lymph Node Biopsy: Indications and Technique

Sentinel lymph node biopsy is a key tool in the care of many patients with melanoma. The indications for the procedure have gradually become clearer over the 3 decades since the technique was developed. For appropriately selected patients, it carries enormous significance. Although it is a minimally invasive procedure, it does carry some risk. It is also a multidisciplinary procedure, requiring knowledge and experience from several specialties including nuclear medicine, surgery, and pathology.

Designing and analyzing clinical trials for personalized medicine via Bayesian models

Patients with different characteristics (e.g., biomarkers, risk factors) may have different responses to the same medicine. Personalized medicine clinical studies that are designed to identify patient subgroup treatment efficacies can benefit patients and save medical resources. However, subgroup treatment effect identification complicates the study design in consideration of desired operating characteristics. We investigate three Bayesian adaptive models for subgroup treatment effect identification: pairwise independent, hierarchical, and cluster hierarchical achieved via Dirichlet Process (DP). The impact of interim analysis and longitudinal data modeling on the personalized medicine study design is also explored. Interim analysis is considered since they can accelerate personalized medicine studies in cases where early stopping rules for success or futility are met. We apply integrated two-component prediction method (ITP) for longitudinal data simulation, and simple linear regression for longitudinal data imputation to optimize the study design. The designs' performance in terms of power for the subgroup treatment effects and overall treatment effect, sample size, and study duration are investigated via simulation. We found the hierarchical model is an optimal approach to identifying subgroup treatment effects, and the cluster hierarchical model is an excellent alternative approach in cases where sufficient information is not available for specifying the priors. The interim analysis introduction to the study design lead to the trade-off between power and expected sample size via the adjustment of the early stopping criteria. The introduction of the longitudinal modeling slightly improves the power. These findings can be applied to future personalized medicine studies with discrete or time-to-event endpoints.

The Landmark Series: MSLT-1, MSLT-2 and DeCOG (Management of Lymph Nodes)

Management of regional lymph nodes in patients with melanoma has evolved significantly in recent years. The value of nodal intervention, long utilized for its perceived therapeutic benefit, has now shifted to that of a critical prognostic procedure used to guide clinical decision making. This review focuses on the three landmark, randomized controlled trials evaluating the role of surgery for regional lymph nodes in melanoma: Multicenter Selective Lymphadenectomy Trial I (MSLT-I), German Dermatologic Cooperative Oncology Group-Selective Lymphadenectomy Trial (DeCOG-SLT), and Multicenter Selective Lymphadenectomy Trial II (MSLT-II).

Optimizing drug development in oncology by clinical trial simulation: Why and how?

In therapeutic research, the safety and efficacy of pharmaceutical products are necessarily tested on humans via clinical trials after an extensive and expensive preclinical development period. Methodologies such as computer modeling and clinical trial simulation (CTS) might represent a valuable option to reduce animal and human assays. The relevance of these methods is well recognized in pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics from the preclinical phase to postmarketing. However, they are barely used and are poorly regarded for drug approval, despite Food and Drug Administration and European Medicines Agency recommendations. The generalization of CTS could be greatly facilitated by the availability of software for modeling biological systems, by clinical trial studies and hospital databases. Data sharing and data merging raise legal, policy and technical issues that will need to be addressed. Development of future molecules will have to use CTS for faster development and thus enable better patient management. Drug activity modeling coupled with disease modeling, optimal use of medical data and increased computing speed should allow this leap forward. The realization of CTS requires not only bioinformatics tools to allow interconnection and global integration of all clinical data but also a universal legal framework to protect the privacy of every patient. While recognizing that CTS can never replace 'real-life' trials, they should be implemented in future drug development schemes to provide quantitative support for decision-making. This in silico medicine opens the way to the P4 medicine: predictive, preventive, personalized and participatory.

Practice-Changing Developments in Stage III Melanoma: Surgery, Adjuvant Targeted Therapy, and Immunotherapy

In this article, we will focus on the practice-changing developments for stage III melanoma, from the use of the sentinel node (SN) biopsy to complete lymph node dissection (CLND) and upcoming adjuvant therapies. MSLT-1 (Multicenter Selective Lymphadenectomy Trial-1) was the first and only prospective randomized controlled trial to examine whether the SN biopsy has any notable melanoma-specific survival benefit (primary endpoint). MSLT-1 randomly assigned 2,001 patients to undergo either wide local excision (WLE) and an SN biopsy or WLE and nodal observation. Two prospective randomized controlled trials have examined the potential benefit for immediate CLND versus delayed CLND after sequential observation. Both the DECOG-SLT and MSLT-2 trials failed to demonstrate a notable benefit for immediate CLND; therefore, sequential follow-up with ultrasonography and a delayed CLND in the case of relapse should be considered the new standard of care. The CheckMate 238 study demonstrated a notable benefit for adjuvant nivolumab in terms of 18-month relapse-free survival (RFS) rates compared with high-dose adjuvant ipilimumab. Single-agent adjuvant BRAF inhibition has been examined and failed to improve RFS. However, the COMBI-AD study did demonstrate a substantial benefit for combination BRAF and MEK inhibition for patients with BRAF-mutated resected stage IIIA to IIIC melanoma.

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects for latent subgroups in observational studies

Individuals may vary in their responses to treatment, and identification of subgroups differentially affected by a treatment is an important issue in medical research. The risk of misleading subgroup analyses has become well known, and some exploratory analyses can be helpful in clarifying how covariates potentially interact with the treatment. Motivated by a real data study of pediatric kidney transplant, we consider a semiparametric Bayesian latent model and examine its utility for an exploratory subgroup effect analysis using secondary data. The proposed method is concerned with a clinical setting where the number of subgroups is much smaller than that of potential predictors and subgroups are only latently associated with observed covariates. The semiparametric model is flexible in capturing the latent structure driven by data rather than dictated by parametric modeling assumptions. Since it is difficult to correctly specify the conditional relationship between the response and a large number of confounders in modeling, we use propensity score matching to improve the model robustness by balancing the covariates distribution. Simulation studies show that the proposed analysis can find the latent subgrouping structure and, with propensity score matching adjustment, yield robust estimates even when the outcome model is misspecified. In the real data analysis, the proposed analysis reports significant subgroup effects on steroid avoidance in kidney transplant patients, whereas standard proportional hazards regression analysis does not.

Completion Dissection or Observation for Sentinel-Node Metastasis in Melanoma

BACKGROUND

Sentinel-lymph-node biopsy is associated with increased melanoma-specific survival (i.e., survival until death from melanoma) among patients with node-positive intermediate-thickness melanomas (1.2 to 3.5 mm). The value of completion lymph-node dissection for patients with sentinel-node metastases is not clear.

METHODS

In an international trial, we randomly assigned patients with sentinel-node metastases detected by means of standard pathological assessment or a multimarker molecular assay to immediate completion lymph-node dissection (dissection group) or nodal observation with ultrasonography (observation group). The primary end point was melanoma-specific survival. Secondary end points included disease-free survival and the cumulative rate of nonsentinel-node metastasis.

RESULTS

Immediate completion lymph-node dissection was not associated with increased melanoma-specific survival among 1934 patients with data that could be evaluated in an intention-to-treat analysis or among 1755 patients in the per-protocol analysis. In the per-protocol analysis, the mean (±SE) 3-year rate of melanoma-specific survival was similar in the dissection group and the observation group (86±1.3% and 86±1.2%, respectively; P=0.42 by the log-rank test) at a median follow-up of 43 months. The rate of disease-free survival was slightly higher in the dissection group than in the observation group (68±1.7% and 63±1.7%, respectively; P=0.05 by the log-rank test) at 3 years, based on an increased rate of disease control in the regional nodes at 3 years (92±1.0% vs. 77±1.5%; P<0.001 by the log-rank test); these results must be interpreted with caution. Nonsentinel-node metastases, identified in 11.5% of the patients in the dissection group, were a strong, independent prognostic factor for recurrence (hazard ratio, 1.78; P=0.005). Lymphedema was observed in 24.1% of the patients in the dissection group and in 6.3% of those in the observation group.

CONCLUSIONS

Immediate completion lymph-node dissection increased the rate of regional disease control and provided prognostic information but did not increase melanoma-specific survival among patients with melanoma and sentinel-node metastases. (Funded by the National Cancer Institute and others; MSLT-II ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00297895 .).

Methods for identification and confirmation of targeted subgroups in clinical trials: A systematic review

Important objectives in the development of stratified medicines include the identification and confirmation of subgroups of patients with a beneficial treatment effect and a positive benefit-risk balance. We report the results of a literature review on methodological approaches to the design and analysis of clinical trials investigating a potential heterogeneity of treatment effects across subgroups. The identified approaches are classified based on certain characteristics of the proposed trial designs and analysis methods. We distinguish between exploratory and confirmatory subgroup analysis, frequentist, Bayesian and decision-theoretic approaches and, last, fixed-sample, group-sequential, and adaptive designs and illustrate the available trial designs and analysis strategies with published case studies.

No survival benefit for patients with melanoma undergoing sentinel lymph node biopsy: critical appraisal of the Multicenter Selective Lymphadenectomy Trial-I final report

BACKGROUND

Sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) was developed in the hope that it would improve outcomes for patients with melanoma. SLNB is an area of discussion and controversy in melanoma medicine. The final trial results of the Multicenter Selective Lymphadenectomy Trial (MSLT-I) have now been published and the authors suggest their long-term results 'clearly validate the use of sentinel-node biopsy in patients with intermediate-thickness or thick primary melanomas'. An accompanying editorial states that MSLT-I is a practice-changing trial.

CONCLUSIONS

However, critical appraisal of MSLT-I data does not support the claims of the final report. On the contrary, MSLT-I failed to demonstrate that there is a significant treatment-related difference in the 10-year melanoma-specific survival rate in the overall study population. Furthermore, there was no improvement in overall or melanoma-specific survival of the intermediate-thickness group (1·2-3·5 mm). Completion lymphadenectomy can result in complications in about a third of patients, with a rate of clinically significant lymphoedema following axillary or groin dissection of 5-10%. Unnecessary lymphadenectomy can therefore have a major effect on patient quality of life. The evidence provided by Morton et al. does not support the claim that sentinel lymph node biopsy followed by lymphadenectomy in patients with positive sentinel nodes should be the standard of care in patients with melanoma. Readers are encouraged to check with registration sites to make sure declared primary outcomes are fairly reported. Post-hoc analyses are at best exploratory and cannot be used to form the principal conclusions of a trial.

Multicenter Selective Lymphadenectomy Trial-I confirms the central role of sentinel node biopsy in contemporary melanoma management: response to 'No survival benefit for patients with melanoma undergoing sentinel lymph node biopsy: critical appraisal of the Multicenter Selective Lymphadenectomy Trial-I final report'

Sentinel lymph node (SLN) biopsy has become a standard procedure for many patients with melanoma and is recommended in numerous national and professional melanoma guidelines. The Multicenter Selective Lymphadenectomy Trial (MSLT-1) confirms earlier large database studies and prospective clinical trials in demonstrating the independent and unequalled prognostic value of the SLN. It also demonstrates the ability of biopsy-directed management to provide effective regional disease control with the least possible morbidity. These benefits are not in question and provide ample justification for the procedure, even without evidence of a survival benefit. However, MSLT-1 also provides strong evidence of a substantial reduction in the risk of melanoma death for patients with intermediate thickness melanomas who harbour occult nodal metastases at the time of presentation. Denying appropriately selected patients with melanoma the opportunity to undergo SLN biopsy is no longer reasonable or acceptable.

A semiparametric linear transformation model to estimate causal effects for survival data

Semiparametric linear transformation models serve as useful alternatives to the Cox proportional hazard model. In this study, we use the semiparametric linear transformation model to analyze survival data with selective compliance. We estimate regression parameters and the transformation function based on pseudo-likelihood and a series of estimating equations. We show that the estimators for the regression parameters and transformation function are consistent and asymptotically normal, and both converge to their true values at the rate of n ^-1/2, the convergence rate expected for a parametric model. The practical utility of the methods is confirmed via simulations as well as an application of a clinical trial to evaluate the effectiveness of sentinel node biopsy in guiding the treatment of invasive melanoma.

Final trial report of sentinel-node biopsy versus nodal observation in melanoma

BACKGROUND

Sentinel-node biopsy, a minimally invasive procedure for regional melanoma staging, was evaluated in a phase 3 trial.

METHODS

We evaluated outcomes in 2001 patients with primary cutaneous melanomas randomly assigned to undergo wide excision and nodal observation, with lymphadenectomy for nodal relapse (observation group), or wide excision and sentinel-node biopsy, with immediate lymphadenectomy for nodal metastases detected on biopsy (biopsy group). Results No significant treatment-related difference in the 10-year melanoma-specific survival rate was seen in the overall study population (20.8% with and 79.2% without nodal metastases). Mean (± SE) 10-year disease-free survival rates were significantly improved in the biopsy group, as compared with the observation group, among patients with intermediate-thickness melanomas, defined as 1.20 to 3.50 mm (71.3 ± 1.8% vs. 64.7 ± 2.3%; hazard ratio for recurrence or metastasis, 0.76; P=0.01), and those with thick melanomas, defined as >3.50 mm (50.7 ± 4.0% vs. 40.5 ± 4.7%; hazard ratio, 0.70; P=0.03). Among patients with intermediate-thickness melanomas, the 10-year melanoma-specific survival rate was 62.1 ± 4.8% among those with metastasis versus 85.1 ± 1.5% for those without metastasis (hazard ratio for death from melanoma, 3.09; P<0.001); among patients with thick melanomas, the respective rates were 48.0 ± 7.0% and 64.6 ± 4.9% (hazard ratio, 1.75; P=0.03). Biopsy-based management improved the 10-year rate of distant disease-free survival (hazard ratio for distant metastasis, 0.62; P=0.02) and the 10-year rate of melanoma-specific survival (hazard ratio for death from melanoma, 0.56; P=0.006) for patients with intermediate-thickness melanomas and nodal metastases. Accelerated-failure-time latent-subgroup analysis was performed to account for the fact that nodal status was initially known only in the biopsy group, and a significant treatment benefit persisted.

CONCLUSIONS

Biopsy-based staging of intermediate-thickness or thick primary melanomas provides important prognostic information and identifies patients with nodal metastases who may benefit from immediate complete lymphadenectomy. Biopsy-based management prolongs disease-free survival for all patients and prolongs distant disease-free survival and melanoma-specific survival for patients with nodal metastases from intermediate-thickness melanomas. (Funded by the National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, and the Australia and New Zealand Melanoma Trials Group; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00275496.).

Latent subgroup analysis of a randomized clinical trial through a semiparametric accelerated failure time mixture model

This article studies a semiparametric accelerated failure time mixture model for estimation of a biological treatment effect on a latent subgroup of interest with a time-to-event outcome in randomized clinical trials. Latency is induced because membership is observable in one arm of the trial and unidentified in the other. This method is useful in randomized clinical trials with all-or-none noncompliance when patients in the control arm have no access to active treatment and in, for example, oncology trials when a biopsy used to identify the latent subgroup is performed only on subjects randomized to active treatment. We derive a computational method to estimate model parameters by iterating between an expectation step and a weighted Buckley-James optimization step. The bootstrap method is used for variance estimation, and the performance of our method is corroborated in simulation. We illustrate our method through an analysis of a multicenter selective lymphadenectomy trial for melanoma.