Bootstrap confidence intervals and bias correction in the estimation of HIV incidence from surveillance data with testing for recent infection

Use of HIV Recency Assays for HIV Incidence Estimation and Other Surveillance Use Cases: Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

HIV assays designed to detect recent infection, also known as "recency assays," are often used to estimate HIV incidence in a specific country, region, or subpopulation, alone or as part of recent infection testing algorithms (RITAs). Recently, many countries and organizations have become interested in using recency assays within case surveillance systems and routine HIV testing services to measure other indicators beyond incidence, generally referred to as "non-incidence surveillance use cases."

OBJECTIVE

This review aims to identify published evidence that can be used to validate methodological approaches to recency-based incidence estimation and non-incidence use cases. The evidence identified through this review will be used in the forthcoming technical guidance by the World Health Organization (WHO) and United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) on the use of HIV recency assays for identification of epidemic trends, whether for HIV incidence estimation or non-incidence indicators of recency.

METHODS

To identify the best methodological and field implementation practices for the use of recency assays to estimate HIV incidence and trends in recent infections for specific populations or geographic areas, we conducted a systematic review of the literature to (1) understand the use of recency testing for surveillance in programmatic and laboratory settings, (2) review methodologies for implementing recency testing for both incidence estimation and non-incidence use cases, and (3) assess the field performance characteristics of commercially available recency assays.

RESULTS

Among the 167 documents included in the final review, 91 (54.5%) focused on assay or algorithm performance or methodological descriptions, with high-quality evidence of accurate age- and sex-disaggregated HIV incidence estimation at national or regional levels in general population settings, but not at finer geographic levels for prevention prioritization. The remaining 76 (45.5%) described the field use of incidence assays including field-derived incidence (n=45), non-incidence (n=25), and both incidence and non-incidence use cases (n=6). The field use of incidence assays included integrating RITAs into routine surveillance and assisting with molecular genetic analyses, but evidence was generally weaker or only reported on what was done, without validation data or findings related to effectiveness of using non-incidence indicators calculated through the use of recency assays as a proxy for HIV incidence.

CONCLUSIONS

HIV recency assays have been widely validated for estimating HIV incidence in age- and sex-specific populations at national and subnational regional levels; however, there is a lack of evidence validating the accuracy and effectiveness of using recency assays to identify epidemic trends in non-incidence surveillance use cases. More research is needed to validate the use of recency assays within HIV testing services, to ensure findings can be accurately interpreted to guide prioritization of public health programming.

Bias Correction for Replacement Samples in Longitudinal Research

Missing data are commonly encountered problem in longitudinal research. One way researchers handle missing data is through the use of supplemental samples (i.e., the addition of new participants to the original sample after missing data appear at the second or later measurement occasion). Two types of supplemental sample approaches are commonly used: a refreshment approach (additional participants are randomly selected from the population of interest) and a replacement approach (additional participants are selected based on auxiliary variables that explain missingness in the original data). Past research demonstrates that using a replacement approach produces biased parameter estimates because the addition of the replacement sample results in an unrepresentative sample of the population. However, replacement samples have been used in previous studies and the estimation bias has not been corrected. Thus, for this study, we propose and evaluate four ways to correct the bias introduced by replacement samples: a parametric bootstrapping replacement sample correction, a non-parametric bootstrapping replacement sample correction, a primary inverse probability reweighting correction, and a likelihood-based inverse probability reweighting correction. We evaluate their performance using a simulation study and an empirical study.

Efficacy and safety of topical isobutylamido thiazolyl resorcinol (Thiamidol) vs. 4% hydroquinone cream for facial melasma: an evaluator-blinded, randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Melasma can be refractory to treatment, and relapses are frequent. Thiamidol is a new potent tyrosinase inhibitor that has been found effective as a cosmeceutical for the depigmenting of melasma.

OBJECTIVE

This study compared the efficacy and tolerability of topical 0.2% Thiamidol vs. 4% hydroquinone for facial melasma.

METHODS

Fifty women with facial melasma participated in a randomized, evaluator-blinded, controlled study from September through November 2020. Patients were randomly assigned to apply a double layer of 0.2% Thiamidol twice a day or 4% hydroquinone cream at bedtime, for 90 days. Both groups received tinted sunscreen (sun protection factor 60, PPD 20). The primary outcome was the change from the baseline Modified Melasma Area Seve:rity Index (mMASI) score. Secondary outcomes were improvements in the patients' quality of life [Melasma Quality of Life Index (MELASQoL)], colourimetry, and Global Aesthetic Improvement Scale (GAIS) evaluation.

RESULTS

One participant, from the hydroquinone group, did not complete the study (unrelated to adverse effects). The mean (SD) age of the participants was 43 (6) years, and 86% were phototypes III-IV. Both groups exhibited a reduction in mMASI, MELASQoL, and colour contrast scores (P < 0.01). The mean [95% confidence interval (CI 95%)] reductions of the mMASI scores were 43% (35-50%) for Thiamidol and 33% (23-42%) for hydroquinone. There was no difference between the groups in the reductions in mMASI, MELASQoL, colourimetric contrast and GAIS scores (P ≥ 0.09). The GAIS analysis resulted in an improvement of 84% (CI: 95% 67-97%) for participants in the Thiamidol group and 74% (CI: 95% 61-93%) for those in the hydroquinone group. There were only mild adverse effects in the Thiamidol group, but allergic contact dermatitis was evidenced in two (8%) participants.

CONCLUSION

The melasma improvement achieved using 0.2% Thiamidol did not differ from that of 4% hydroquinone cream. Thiamidol can be considered a suitable option for melasma patients with poor tolerability or treatment failure with hydroquinone.

HIV incidence estimate combining HIV/AIDS surveillance, testing history information and HIV test to identify recent infections in Lazio, Italy

BACKGROUND

The application of serological methods in HIV/AIDS routine surveillance systems to identify persons with recently acquired HIV infection has been proposed as a tool which may provide an accurate description of the current transmission patterns of HIV. Using the information about recent infection it is possible to estimate HIV incidence, according to the model proposed by Karon et al. in 2008, that accounts for the effect of testing practices on the number of persons detected as recently infected.

METHODS

We used data from HIV/AIDS surveillance in the period 2004-2008 to identify newly diagnosed persons. These were classified with recent/non-recent infection on the basis of an avidity index result, or laboratory evidence of recently acquired infection (i.e., previous documented negative HIV test within 6 months; or presence of HIV RNA or p24 antigen with simultaneous negative/indeterminate HIV antibody test). Multiple imputation was used to impute missing information. The incidence estimate was obtained as the number of persons detected as recently infected divided by the estimated probability of detection. Estimates were stratified by calendar year, transmission category, gender and nationality.

RESULTS

During the period considered 3,633 new HIV diagnoses were reported to the regional surveillance system. Applying the model, we estimated that in 2004-2008 there were 5,465 new infections (95%CI: 4,538-6,461); stratifying by transmission category, the estimated number of infections was 2,599 among heterosexual contacts, 2,208 among men-who-have-sex-with-men, and 763 among injecting-drug-users. In 2008 there were 952 (625-1,229) new HIV infections (incidence of 19.9 per 100,000 person-years). In 2008, for men-who-have-sex-with-men (691 per 100,000 person-years) and injecting drug users (577 per 100,000 person-years) the incidence remained comparatively high with respect to the general population, although a decreasing pattern during 2004-2008 was observed for injecting-drug-users.

CONCLUSIONS

These estimates suggest that the transmission of HIV infection in Lazio remains frequent and men-who-have-sex-with men and injecting-drug-users are still greatly affected although the majority of new infections occurs among heterosexual individuals.