CD4 cell eligibility thresholds: an analysis of the time to antiretroviral treatment in HIV-1 seroconverters.
AIDS 2011;
25:819-23. [PMID:
21412060 DOI:
10.1097/qad.0b013e32834625d3]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/18/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND
WHO recommends initiating combination antiretroviral treatment at the minimal CD4 cell threshold of 350 cells/μl. In sub-Saharan Africa, the time for a recently infected patient to reach this threshold is unclear.
METHOD
We estimated the probability of reaching different CD4 cell thresholds over time in the ANRS 1220 cohort of HIV-1 seroconverters in Côte d'Ivoire. CD4 cell slopes were estimated using a mixed linear model. Probabilities of crossing the 350 and 500 cells/μl CD4 cell thresholds were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method.
RESULTS
Between 1997 and 2009, 304 recent seroconverters have been enrolled in the Primo-CI cohort (62% men, median baseline age 29 years and median time since the estimated date of seroconversion 9 months). The probability of having a first CD4 cell count below 500 cells/μl was 0.57, 0.72, 0.79 and 0.84 at study entry, 2, 4 and 6 years, respectively. For a first CD4 cell count below 350 cells/μl, these figures were 0.29, 0.40, 0.55 and 0.67. The time for 75% of patients to reach the threshold was 3.0 years for 500 cells/μl and 7.0 years for 350 cells/μl.
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