Importance of promoting HIV testing for preventing secondary transmissions: modelling the Australian HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men

BACKGROUND

We address the research questions: (i) what proportion of new HIV infections is transmitted from people who are (a) undiagnosed, (b) in primary HIV infection (PHI), (c) on antiretroviral therapy?; and (ii) what is the expected epidemiological impact of (a) increasing the proportion of newly acquired HIV infections receiving early treatment, and (b) increasing HIV testing rates?

METHODS

We used a mathematical model to simulate HIV transmission in the population of men who have sex with men (MSM) in Australia. We calibrated the model using established biological and clinical data and a wide range of Australian MSM epidemiological and behavioural data sources.

RESULTS

We estimate that ~19% of all new HIV infections are transmitted from the ~3% of Australian HIV-infected MSM who are in PHI; ~31% of new HIV infections are estimated to be transmitted from the ~9% of MSM with undiagnosed HIV. We estimate that the average number of infections caused per HIV-infected MSM through the duration of PHI is ~0.14-0.28.

CONCLUSIONS

The epidemiological impact of increasing treatment in PHI would be modest due to insufficient detection of newly-infected individuals. In contrast, increases in HIV testing rates could have substantial epidemiological consequences. The benefit of testing will also increase over time. Promoting increases in the coverage and frequency of testing for HIV could be a highly-effective public health intervention, but the population-level impact of interventions based on promoting early treatment of patients diagnosed in PHI is likely to be small. Treating PHI requires further evaluation of its long-term effects on HIV-infected individuals.

Modelling the effect of combination antiretroviral treatments on HIV incidence

OBJECTIVE

To assess the competing effects on HIV incidence in homosexual men of the decreased infectiousness of men with HIV receiving effective combination antiretroviral treatments and homosexual men engaging in unprotected anal intercourse with increased numbers of partners (levels of unsafe sex).

METHODS

A mathematical model of HIV transmission in homosexual men was developed, based on the HIV epidemic in Australia in 1996, when effective antiretroviral treatments first became widely available. Uncertainties in parameters were modelled using 1000 simulations. The effect of treatments on decreasing infectiousness was randomly sampled with a median 10-fold decrease in infectiousness (range 100-fold to no decrease). Levels of unsafe sex were randomly sampled with a median 50% increase in unsafe sex (range 100% to no increase). The percentage change in HIV incidence after one year was obtained by comparison with a null model in which there was no decrease in infectiousness as a result of treatment and no change in unsafe sex.

RESULTS

Results of the models suggested that whereas increased levels of unsafe sex were linearly associated with increases in HIV incidence, decreases in infectiousness because of treatments were non-linearly associated with decreases in HIV incidence. An assessment of the competing effects suggested that decreases in infectiousness of two-, five-, and 10-fold would be counterbalanced by increases in unsafe sex of approximately 40, 60 and 70%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

These models suggest that apparently large decreases in infectiousness as a result of treatment could be counterbalanced in terms of new HIV infections by much more modest increases in unsafe sex.

Relationship between HIV-1 Env subtypes A and D and disease progression in a rural Ugandan cohort

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the role of HIV-1 envelope subtypes on disease progression in a rural cohort of Ugandan adults where two major HIV-1 subtypes (A and D) exist.

METHODS

Participants of a clinical cohort seen between December 1995 and December 1998 had blood collected for HIV-1 subtyping. These included prevalent cases (people already infected with HIV at the start of the study in 1990) and incident cases (those who seroconverted between 1990 and December 1998). HIV-1 subtyping was carried out by heteroduplex mobility assay and DNA sequencing in the V3 env region. Disease progression was measured by the rate of CD4 lymphocyte count decline, clinical progression for the incident cases as time from seroconversion to AIDS or death, to first CD4 lymphocyte count < 200 x 10(6)/l and to the World Health Organization clinical stage 3. All analyses were adjusted for age and sex.

RESULTS

One hundred and sixty-four individuals, including 47 prevalent and 117 incident cases, had V3 env subtype data of which 65 (40%) were subtyped as A and 99 as D. In the incident cases, 44 (38%) were subtyped as A and 73 as D. There was a suggestion that for most end-points A had a slower progression than D. The cumulative probability of remaining free from AIDS or death at 6 years post-seroconversion was 0.72 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.50 to 0.85] for A and 0.58 (95% CI, 0.42 to 0.71) for D, and the adjusted hazard ratio of subtype D compared to A was estimated to be 1.39 (95% CI, 0.66 to 2.94; P = 0.39). The estimated difference in rates of decline in square root CD4 lymphocyte counts was -0.41 per year (95% CI, -0.98 to 0.15; P = 0.15).

CONCLUSION

This study suggests that although subtype A may have a slower progression than D, HIV-1 envelope subtype is not a major factor in determining the progression of HIV-1 disease in a rural population in Uganda.

The effects of the 32-bp CCR-5 deletion on HIV transmission and HIV disease progression in individuals with haemophilia

The chemokine receptor CCR5 is an important co-receptor for cell fusion. A 32-bp deletion of the CCR5 gene, leading to complete absence of functional CCR5 expression, has been associated with resistance to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in homozygotes and slower HIV disease progression in heterozygotes. The objectives of this study were to assess the effects of this 32-bp deletion on transmission of HIV infection and on HIV disease progression in haemophilic individuals. Six HIV-negative patients from our centre, known to have been exposed to infectious factor VIII concentrates, have been analysed. Three of these patients possess the CCR5 32-bp deletion, two patients being homozygous. The presence of the CCR5 32-bp gene deletion has also been analysed in 71 HIV-positive patients. In this group of patients, there was a lower than expected incidence of the 32-bp deletion. Those who possess the 32-bp deletion progress to AIDS more slowly than those who do not (P = 0.05, log-rank test). Rates of CD4 loss were slower in those heterozygous for the gene deletion. We confirm that heterozygosity for the 32-bp gene deletion in CCR5 is partially protective against initial infection with HIV. In those heterozygous patients who became infected with HIV, disease progression was slower.

Heterosexual transmission of HIV analysed by generalized estimating equations

A longitudinal analysis of a partner study is compared with a cross-sectional analysis which identify behavioural and biological risk factors for heterosexual transmission of HIV. Using generalized estimating equations (GEEs) a random effects logistic model is used for the longitudinal analysis. These approaches are illustrated by the Edinburgh heterosexual partner study. The longitudinal analysis finds that 'high-risk' sexual practices, unprotected intercourse for HIV and a low CD4 count in the index case significantly increase the risk of HIV transmission. The cross-sectional analysis, however, only indicates 'high-risk' sexual practices as favourable for HIV transmission.