Traffic accident mapping in Bangkok metropolis: a case study

[Spatial analysis of road traffic accidents with fatalities in Spain, 2008-2011]

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the areas of greatest density of road traffic accidents with fatalities at 24 hours per km(2)/year in Spain from 2008 to 2011, using a geographic information system.

METHODS

Accidents were geocodified using the road and kilometer points where they occurred. The average nearest neighbor was calculated to detect possible clusters and to obtain the bandwidth for kernel density estimation.

RESULTS

A total of 4775 accidents were analyzed, of which 73.3% occurred on conventional roads. The estimated average distance between accidents was 1,242 meters, and the average expected distance was 10,738 meters. The nearest neighbor index was 0.11, indicating that there were aggregations of accidents in space. A map showing the kernel density was obtained with a resolution of 1 km(2), which identified the areas of highest density.

CONCLUSIONS

This methodology allowed a better approximation to locating accident risks by taking into account kilometer points. The map shows areas where there was a greater density of accidents. This could be an advantage in decision-making by the relevant authorities.

Bayesian statistics in medicine: a 25 year review

This review examines the state of Bayesian thinking as Statistics in Medicine was launched in 1982, reflecting particularly on its applicability and uses in medical research. It then looks at each subsequent five-year epoch, with a focus on papers appearing in Statistics in Medicine, putting these in the context of major developments in Bayesian thinking and computation with reference to important books, landmark meetings and seminal papers. It charts the growth of Bayesian statistics as it is applied to medicine and makes predictions for the future. From sparse beginnings, where Bayesian statistics was barely mentioned, Bayesian statistics has now permeated all the major areas of medical statistics, including clinical trials, epidemiology, meta-analyses and evidence synthesis, spatial modelling, longitudinal modelling, survival modelling, molecular genetics and decision-making in respect of new technologies.

A case-control study of non-fatal traffic accidents on hospital patients in Bangkok metropolis

Morbidity and mortality from road traffic accidents in Bangkok metropolis is high with a trend strictly increasing in time, thus establishing one of the major public health problems and targets of the Kingdom of Thailand. An unmatched case-control study was undertaken to evaluate various risk patterns connected with the occurrence of traffic accidents. 350 cases were sampled from five major hospitals distributed over the Bangkok Metropolitan area and 350 controls were included from out-patients of Rajawithi hospital. The major interest in this case-control analysis is to estimate relative risk (through odds ratio) and measure statistical significance of association between road traffic accident and the following risk factors: the demographic risk factors are age (age between 15 and 19 years has odds ratio of 8.25 [1.01, 67.72]; age above 40 is baseline), marital status (single has odds ratio of 2.74 [1.26, 5.95]; baseline is not-single), sex (males have an odds ratio of 2.05 [0.51, 8.24], occupation (salespersons have an odds ratio of 4.27 [1.47, 12.46]; baseline are office workers); the driving related exposure factors type of vehicle (motorbikers have an odds ratio of 6.22 [2.82, 13.78]; baseline are other vehicle drivers), driving time per day (odds ratio 1.35 [0.88, 2.09]) and the number of accidents in the last three years (odds ratio of 4.36 [2.51, 7.58]); the behavioral factors one hour before driving such as the consumption of alcohol (odds ratio 3.01 [1.53, 5.94]; baseline in no alcohol) and the consumption of a lot of food (odds ratio of 0.07 [0.03, 0.16]; baseline is not eating a lot before driving). The odds ratios for traffic accident when being under allergic medication and the consumption of tranquilizer were not significant. The results are consistent with current results in traffic accident research and point to target groups for potential prevention programmes in traffic accident prevention.