Testing for efficacy in adaptive clinical trials with enrichment

Two-stage adaptive enrichment design for testing an active factor

We propose an adaptive enrichment approach to test an active factor, which is a factor whose effect is non-zero in at least one subpopulation. We implement a two-stage play-the-winner design where all subjects in the second stage are enrolled from the subpopulation that has the highest observed effect in the first stage. We recommend a weighted Fisher's combination of the most powerful test for each stage, respectively: the first stage Hotelling's test and the second stage noncentral chi-square test. The test is further extended to cover binary outcomes and time-to-event outcomes.

Successful aging: Advancing the science of physical independence in older adults

The concept of 'successful aging' has long intrigued the scientific community. Despite this long-standing interest, a consensus definition has proven to be a difficult task, due to the inherent challenge involved in defining such a complex, multi-dimensional phenomenon. The lack of a clear set of defining characteristics for the construct of successful aging has made comparison of findings across studies difficult and has limited advances in aging research. A consensus on markers of successful aging is furthest developed is the domain of physical functioning. For example, walking speed appears to be an excellent surrogate marker of overall health and predicts the maintenance of physical independence, a cornerstone of successful aging. The purpose of the present article is to provide an overview and discussion of specific health conditions, behavioral factors, and biological mechanisms that mark declining mobility and physical function and promising interventions to counter these effects. With life expectancy continuing to increase in the United States and developed countries throughout the world, there is an increasing public health focus on the maintenance of physical independence among all older adults.