A Bayesian multivariate joint frailty model for disease recurrences and survival

Surrogacy validation for time-to-event outcomes with illness-death frailty models

A common practice in clinical trials is to evaluate a treatment effect on an intermediate outcome when the true outcome of interest would be difficult or costly to measure. We consider how to validate intermediate outcomes in a causally-valid way when the trial outcomes are time-to-event. Using counterfactual outcomes, those that would be observed if the counterfactual treatment had been given, the causal association paradigm assesses the relationship of the treatment effect on the surrogate outcome with the treatment effect on the true, primary outcome. In particular, we propose illness-death models to accommodate the censored and semicompeting risk structure of survival data. The proposed causal version of these models involves estimable and counterfactual frailty terms. Via these multistate models, we characterize what a valid surrogate would look like using a causal effect predictiveness plot. We evaluate the estimation properties of a Bayesian method using Markov chain Monte Carlo and assess the sensitivity of our model assumptions. Our motivating data source is a localized prostate cancer clinical trial where the two survival outcomes are time to distant metastasis and time to death.

Modeling of correlated cognitive function and functional disability outcomes with bounded and missing data in a longitudinal aging study

Longitudinal studies of correlated cognitive and disability outcomes among older adults are characterized by missing data due to death or loss to follow-up from deteriorating health conditions. The Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score for assessing cognitive function ranges from a minimum of 0 (floor) to a maximum of 30 (ceiling). To study the risk factors of cognitive function and functional disability, we propose a shared parameter model to handle missingness, correlation between outcomes, and the floor and ceiling effects of the MMSE measurements. The shared random effects in the proposed model handle missingness (either missing at random or missing not at random) and correlation between these outcomes, while the Tobit distribution handles the floor and ceiling effects of the MMSE measurements. We used data from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) and a simulation study. By ignoring the MMSE floor and ceiling effects in the analyses of the CLHLS, the association of systolic blood pressure with cognitive function was not significant and the association of age with cognitive function was lower by 16.6% (from -6.237 to -5.201). By ignoring the MMSE floor and ceiling effects in the simulation study, the relative bias in the estimated association of female gender with cognitive function was 43 times higher (from -0.01 to -0.44). The estimated associations obtained with data missing at random were smaller than those with data missing not at random, demonstrating how the missing data mechanism affects the analytic results. Our work underscores the importance of proper model specification in longitudinal analysis of correlated outcomes subject to missingness and bounded values.

Comparison of Diagnosis Accuracy between a Backpropagation Artificial Neural Network Model and Linear Regression in Digestive Disease Patients: an Empirical Research

Introduction

A Noninvasive diagnosis model for digestive diseases is the vital issue for the current clinical research. Our systematic review is aimed at demonstrating diagnosis accuracy between the BP-ANN algorithm and linear regression in digestive disease patients, including their activation function and data structure.

Methods

We reported the systematic review according to the PRISMA guidelines. We searched related articles from seven electronic scholarly databases for comparison of the diagnosis accuracy focusing on BP-ANN and linear regression. The characteristics, patient number, input/output marker, diagnosis accuracy, and results/conclusions related to comparison were extracted independently based on inclusion criteria.

Results

Nine articles met all the criteria and were enrolled in our review. Of those enrolled articles, the publishing year ranged from 1991 to 2017. The sample size ranged from 42 to 3222 digestive disease patients, and all of the patients showed comparable biomarkers between the BP-ANN algorithm and linear regression. According to our study, 8 literature demonstrated that the BP-ANN model is superior to linear regression in predicting the disease outcome based on AUROC results. One literature reported linear regression to be superior to BP-ANN for the early diagnosis of colorectal cancer.

Conclusion

The BP-ANN algorithm and linear regression both had high capacity in fitting the diagnostic model and BP-ANN displayed more prediction accuracy for the noninvasive diagnosis model of digestive diseases. We compared the activation functions and data structure between BP-ANN and linear regression for fitting the diagnosis model, and the data suggested that BP-ANN was a comprehensive recommendation algorithm.

Dynamic prediction of disease processes based on recurrent history and functional principal component analysis of longitudinal biomarkers: Application for ovarian epithelial cancer

Ovarian epithelial cancer is a gynecological tumor with a high risk of recurrence and death. In the clinical diagnosis of ovarian epithelial cancer, CA125 has become an important indicator of disease burden. To account for patient recurrence and death, a proper method is needed to integrate information from biomarkers and recurrence simultaneously. In the past 10 years, many methods have been proposed for joint modeling of longitudinal biomarkers and survival data, but few of them are applicable to longitudinal data and disease processes, including recurrence and death. In this article, we proposed a new joint frailty model based on functional principal component analysis for dynamic prediction of survival probabilities on the total time scale, which took recurrent history and longitudinal data into account simultaneously. The estimation of the joint frailty model is achieved by maximizing the penalized log-likelihood function. The simulation results demonstrated the advantages of our method in both discrimination and accuracy under different scenarios. To indicate the method's practicality, it is applied to an actual dataset of patients with ovarian epithelial cancer to predict survival dynamically using longitudinal data of biomarker CA125 and recurrent history data.

Modelling multiple outcomes in repeated measures studies: Comparing aesthetic eyelid surgery techniques

We propose a multivariate regression model to deal with multiple outcomes along with repeated measures in the context of longitudinal data analysis. Our model allows for flexible and interpretable modelling of the covariance structure within outcomes by using a linear combination of known matrices, while the generalized Kronecker product is employed to take into account the correlation between outcomes. We present maximum likelihood estimation along with extensions of the classical multivariate analysis of variance and multiple comparison hypothesis tests to deal with multivariate longitudinal data. The model and the associated multivariate hypothesis test are motivated by a prospective study conducted to compare three aesthetic eyelid surgery techniques, namely blepharoplasty, endoscopic forehead lift and endoscopic forehead lift associated with blepharoplasty. The effect of the techniques was assessed using measurements of a horizontal line through pupil centre and then three vertical lines, which go in direction to lateral canthus, middle pupil and medial canthus to the top of the brow. In this study, 30 female patients were randomly divided into three groups. Preoperative measurements were compared with postoperative measurements taken 30 days, 90 days and 10 years after the surgery. The presented multivariate model provided a better fit than its univariate counterpart. The results showed that the three surgery techniques tend to increase all considered outcomes in a long-term perspective, that is, from preoperative to 10 years postoperative evaluations. The only exception was for the outcome lateral eyebrow, for which the blepharoplasty had no significant effect.

Bayesian Semiparametric Joint Regression Analysis of Recurrent Adverse Events and Survival in Esophageal Cancer Patients

We propose a Bayesian semiparametric joint regression model for a recurrent event process and survival time. Assuming independent latent subject frailties, we define marginal models for the recurrent event process intensity and survival distribution as functions of the subject's frailty and baseline covariates. A robust Bayesian model, called Joint-DP, is obtained by assuming a Dirichlet process for the frailty distribution. We present a simulation study that compares posterior estimates under the Joint-DP model to a Bayesian joint model with lognormal frailties, a frequentist joint model, and marginal models for either the recurrent event process or survival time. The simulations show that the Joint-DP model does a good job of correcting for treatment assignment bias, and has favorable estimation reliability and accuracy compared with the alternative models. The Joint-DP model is applied to analyze an observational dataset from esophageal cancer patients treated with chemo-radiation, including the times of recurrent effusions of fluid to the heart or lungs, survival time, prognostic covariates, and radiation therapy modality.

Joint modeling of recurrent events and a terminal event adjusted for zero inflation and a matched design

In longitudinal studies, matched designs are often employed to control the potential confounding effects in the field of biomedical research and public health. Because of clinical interest, recurrent time-to-event data are captured during the follow-up. Meanwhile, the terminal event of death is always encountered, which should be taken into account for valid inference because of informative censoring. In some scenarios, a certain large portion of subjects may not have any recurrent events during the study period due to nonsusceptibility to events or censoring; thus, the zero-inflated nature of data should be considered in analysis. In this paper, a joint frailty model with recurrent events and death is proposed to adjust for zero inflation and matched designs. We incorporate 2 frailties to measure the dependency between subjects within a matched pair and that among recurrent events within each individual. By sharing the random effects, 2 event processes of recurrent events and death are dependent with each other. The maximum likelihood based approach is applied for parameter estimation, where the Monte Carlo expectation-maximization algorithm is adopted, and the corresponding R program is developed and available for public usage. In addition, alternative estimation methods such as Gaussian quadrature (PROC NLMIXED) and a Bayesian approach (PROC MCMC) are also considered for comparison to show our method's superiority. Extensive simulations are conducted, and a real data application on acute ischemic studies is provided in the end.