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Rahman R, Iftakhar Alam M. Stopping for efficacy in single-arm phase II clinical trials. J Appl Stat 2022; 49:2447-2466. [DOI: 10.1080/02664763.2021.1904846] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/21/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Rezoanoor Rahman
- Institute of Statistical Research and Training, University of Dhaka, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - M. Iftakhar Alam
- Institute of Statistical Research and Training, University of Dhaka, Dhaka, Bangladesh
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Chen L, Pan J, Wu Y, Wang J, Chen F, Zhao J, Chen P. Bayesian two-stage design for phase II oncology trials with binary endpoint. Stat Med 2022; 41:2291-2301. [PMID: 35178729 DOI: 10.1002/sim.9355] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/05/2021] [Revised: 01/29/2022] [Accepted: 02/02/2022] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
Abstract
In phase II oncology trials, two-stage design allowing early stopping for futility and/or efficacy is frequently used. However, this design based on frequentist statistical approaches could not guarantee a high posterior probability of attending the pre-specified clinically interesting rate from a Bayesian perspective. Here, we proposed a new Bayesian design enabling early terminating for efficacy as well as futility. In addition to the clinically uninteresting and interesting response rate, a prior distribution of response rate, the minimum posterior threshold probabilities and the lengths of the highest posterior density intervals were specified in the design. Finally, we defined the feasible design with the highest total effective predictive probability. We studied the properties of the proposed design and applied it to an oncology trial as an example. The proposed design ensured that the observed response rate fell within prespecified levels of posterior probability. The proposed design provides an alternative design to single-arm two-stage trials.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lichang Chen
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China.,Department of Medical Statistics, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Jianhong Pan
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Yanpeng Wu
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Jingxian Wang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, China
| | - Fangyao Chen
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, China
| | - Jun Zhao
- Office of Biostatistics and Clinical Pharmacology, The Center for Drug Evaluation, National Medical Products Administration, Beijing, China
| | - Pingyan Chen
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
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