Response-adaptive treatment allocation for clinical studies with recurrent event and terminal event data

Sample size estimation for recurrent event data using multifrailty and multilevel survival models

In epidemiology and clinical research, recurrent events refer to individuals who are likely to experience transient clinical events repeatedly over an observation period. Examples include hospitalizations in patients with heart failure, fractures in osteoporosis studies and the occurrence of new lesions in oncology. We provided an in-depth analysis of the sample size required for the analysis of recurrent time-to-event data using multifrailty or multilevel survival models. We covered the topic from the simple shared frailty model to models with hierarchical or joint frailties. We relied on a Wald-type test statistic to estimate the sample size assuming either a single or multiple endpoints. Simulations revealed that the sample size increased as heterogeneity increased. We also observed that it was more attractive to include more patients and reduce the duration of follow-up than to include fewer patients and increase the duration of follow-up to obtain the number of events required. Each model investigated can address the question of the number of subjects for recurrent events. However, depending on the research question, one model will be more suitable than another. We illustrated our methodology with the AFFIRM-AHF trial investigating the effect of intravenous ferric carboxymaltose in patients hospitalised for acute heart failure.

Evaluating response-adaptive randomization procedures for recurrent events and terminal event data using a composite endpoint

Recurrent event and terminal event data commonly arise in clinical and observational studies. To evaluate the efficacy of a treatment effect for both types of events, a composite endpoint has been used as a possible assessment, particularly when faced with high costs and a longer follow-up study. To model recurrent event processes complicated by the existence of a terminal event, joint frailty modeling has been typically employed. In this study, the objective was to develop some target-driven response adaptive randomization strategies using a composite endpoint based on joint frailty modeling. We first implemented a balanced randomized design and then investigated the response adaptive randomization. The former is intuitively first adopted while the latter is expected to be desirable and ethical in terms of allocating more subjects to the more effective treatment. The results show that the proposed procedures using a composite endpoint are capable of reducing the number of trial participants who receive inferior treatment while simultaneously reaching a desired optimal target as compared to a balanced randomized design. The R shiny application for calculating the sample size and allocation probabilities is also available. Finally, two clinical trials were used as pilot datasets to introduce the proposed procedures.