Proportional constrained longitudinal data analysis models for clinical trials in sporadic Alzheimer's disease

Novel non-linear models for clinical trial analysis with longitudinal data: A tutorial using SAS for both frequentist and Bayesian methods

Longitudinal data from clinical trials are commonly analyzed using mixed models for repeated measures (MMRM) when the time variable is categorical or linear mixed-effects models (ie, random effects model) when the time variable is continuous. In these models, statistical inference is typically based on the absolute difference in the adjusted mean change (for categorical time) or the rate of change (for continuous time). Previously, we proposed a novel approach: modeling the percentage reduction in disease progression associated with the treatment relative to the placebo decline using proportional models. This concept of proportionality provides an innovative and flexible method for simultaneously modeling different cohorts, multivariate endpoints, and jointly modeling continuous and survival endpoints. Through simulated data, we demonstrate the implementation of these models using SAS procedures in both frequentist and Bayesian approaches. Additionally, we introduce a novel method for implementing MMRM models (ie, analysis of response profile) using the nlmixed procedure.

Statistical considerations when estimating time-saving treatment effects in Alzheimer's disease clinical trials

INTRODUCTION

Estimating treatment effects as time savings in disease progression may be more easily interpretable than assessing the absolute difference or a percentage reduction. In this study, we investigate the statistical considerations of the existing method for estimating time savings and propose alternative complementary methods.

METHODS

We propose five alternative methods to estimate the time savings from different perspectives. These methods are applied to simulated clinical trial data that mimic or modify the Clinical Dementia Rating Sum of Boxes progression trajectories observed in the Clarity AD lecanemab trial.

RESULTS

Our study demonstrates that the proposed methods can generate more precise estimates by considering two crucial factors: (1) the absolute difference between treatment arms, and (2) the observed progression rate in the treatment arm.

DISCUSSION

Quantifying treatment effects as time savings in disease progression offers distinct advantages. To provide comprehensive estimations, it is important to use various methods.

HIGHLIGHTS

We explore the statistical considerations of the current method for estimating time savings. We proposed alternative methods that provide time savings estimations based on the observed absolute differences. By using various methods, a more comprehensive estimation of time savings can be achieved.

Examining amyloid reduction as a surrogate endpoint through latent class analysis using clinical trial data for dominantly inherited Alzheimer's disease

INTRODUCTION

Increasing evidence suggests that amyloid reduction could serve as a plausible surrogate endpoint for clinical and cognitive efficacy. The double-blind phase 3 DIAN-TU-001 trial tested clinical and cognitive declines with increasing doses of solanezumab or gantenerumab.

METHODS

We used latent class (LC) analysis on data from the Dominantly Inherited Alzheimer Network Trials Unit 001 trial to test amyloid positron emission tomography (PET) reduction as a potential surrogate biomarker.

RESULTS

LC analysis categorized participants into three classes: amyloid no change, amyloid reduction, and amyloid growth, based on longitudinal amyloid Pittsburgh compound B PET standardized uptake value ratio data. The amyloid-no-change class was at an earlier disease stage for amyloid amounts and dementia. Despite similar baseline characteristics, the amyloid-reduction class exhibited reductions in the annual decline rates compared to the amyloid-growth class across multiple biomarker, clinical, and cognitive outcomes.

DISCUSSION

LC analysis indicates that amyloid reduction is associated with improved clinical outcomes and supports its use as a surrogate biomarker in clinical trials.

HIGHLIGHTS

We used latent class (LC) analysis to test amyloid reduction as a surrogate biomarker. Despite similar baseline characteristics, the amyloid-reduction class exhibited remarkably better outcomes compared to the amyloid-growth class across multiple measures. LC analysis proves valuable in testing amyloid reduction as a surrogate biomarker in clinical trials lacking significant treatment effects.

Ascertainment and Statistical Issues for Randomized Trials of Cardiovascular Interventions for Cognitive Impairment and Dementia

There has been considerable progress in the prevention and treatment of cardiovascular disease, reducing the population burden of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Recently, some randomized trials, including the SPRINT (Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial), have suggested that improvements in cardiovascular risk factors may also slow cognitive decline and reduce the eventual development of dementia. Unfortunately, the randomized trial template that has been used repeatedly to successfully demonstrate reductions in major adverse cardiac events faces several design and analytic obstacles when applied in the context of cognitive decline and dementia. Here, we review these obstacles, motivated by SPRINT and the context of selecting an appropriate cognitive end point for future preventive randomized trials. A few options are available, spanning neuropsychological test scores or composites reflecting specific domains of cognitive function, adjudicated cognitive impairment, or potentially physiological biomarkers. This choice entails considerations around statistical power, modes of ascertainment, the clinical relevance of treatment effects, a myriad of statistical issues (interval censoring, missing data, the competing risk of death, practice effects, etc), as well as ethical considerations around equipoise. Collectively, these considerations indicate that trials aiming to mitigate the cardiovascular contribution to cognitive decline and dementia will generally need to be large, inclusive of a wide age range of older adults, and with multiple years of follow-up.

Natural cubic splines for the analysis of Alzheimer's clinical trials

Mixed model repeated measures (MMRM) is the most common analysis approach used in clinical trials for Alzheimer's disease and other progressive diseases measured with continuous outcomes over time. The model treats time as a categorical variable, which allows an unconstrained estimate of the mean for each study visit in each randomized group. Categorizing time in this way can be problematic when assessments occur off-schedule, as including off-schedule visits can induce bias, and excluding them ignores valuable information and violates the intention to treat principle. This problem has been exacerbated by clinical trial visits which have been delayed due to the COVID19 pandemic. As an alternative to MMRM, we propose a constrained longitudinal data analysis with natural cubic splines that treats time as continuous and uses test version effects to model the mean over time. Compared to categorical-time models like MMRM and models that assume a proportional treatment effect, the spline model is shown to be more parsimonious and precise in real clinical trial datasets, and has better power and Type I error in a variety of simulation scenarios.