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Magro F, Estevinho MM, Catalano G, Patita M, Arroja B, Lago P, Rosa I, Tavares de Sousa H, Ministro P, Mocanu I, Vieira A, Castela J, Moleiro J, Roseira J, Cancela E, Sousa P, Portela F, Correia L, Moreira P, Santiago M, Dias S, Afonso J, Danese S, Peyrin-Biroulet L, Dias CC. How many biomarker measurements are needed to predict prognosis in Crohn's disease patients under infliximab?-A prospective study. United European Gastroenterol J 2023. [PMID: 37318072 DOI: 10.1002/ueg2.12420] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/07/2023] [Accepted: 05/07/2023] [Indexed: 06/16/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Timely stratification of Crohn's disease (CD) is essential for patients' management. The use of noninvasive accurate biomarkers is key to monitor treatment and to pursue mucosal healing, the ultimate treatment endpoint in CD. OBJECTIVE We aimed to evaluate the performance of readily available biomarkers and develop risk matrices to predict CD progression. METHODS Data from 289 CD patients receiving infliximab (IFX) maintenance therapy for 2 years was collected; those patients were included in DIRECT, a prospective multicenter observational study. Disease progression was evaluated using two composite outcomes incorporating clinical and drug-related factors, the first including IFX dose and/or frequency adjustments. Univariate and multivariable logistic regressions were used to calculate the odds ratios (OR) and to develop risk matrices. RESULTS The isolated presence of anemia at least once during follow-up was a significant predictor of disease progression (OR 2.436 and 3.396 [p ≤ 0.001] for composite outcomes 1 and 2, respectively) regardless of confounding factors. Isolated highly elevated C-reactive protein (CRP; >10.0 mg/L) and fecal calprotectin (FC; >500.0 μg/g) in at least one visit were also significant predictors, while milder elevations (3.1-10.0 mg/L and 250.1-500.0 μg/g) were only relevant when detected in at least two visits (consecutive or not). The combination of biomarkers in risk matrices had good ability to predict progression; patients simultaneously presenting anemia, highly elevated CRP and FC at least once had 42%-63% probability of achieving the composite outcomes. CONCLUSION The combined evaluation of hemoglobin, CRP, and FC in at least one time point and their incorporation into risk matrices seems to be the optimal strategy for CD management, as data from additional visits did not meaningfully influence the predictions and may delay decision-making.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fernando Magro
- Department of Biomedicine, Unit of Pharmacology and Therapeutics, Faculty of Medicine, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
- Department of Gastroenterology, São João Hospital University Centre, Porto, Portugal
- Center for Health Technology and Services Research (CINTESIS), Porto, Portugal
- Unidade de Farmacologia Clínica, São João Hospital University Centre, Porto, Portugal
| | - Maria Manuela Estevinho
- Department of Biomedicine, Unit of Pharmacology and Therapeutics, Faculty of Medicine, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
- Department of Gastroenterology, Vila Nova de Gaia Espinho Hospital Center, Vila Nova de Gaia, Portugal
| | - Gaia Catalano
- Department of Biomedicine, Unit of Pharmacology and Therapeutics, Faculty of Medicine, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
| | - Marta Patita
- Department of Gastroenterology, Garcia da Orta Hospital, Almada, Portugal
| | - Bruno Arroja
- Department of Gastroenterology, Braga Hospital, Braga, Portugal
| | - Paula Lago
- Department of Gastroenterology, Porto Hospital University Centre, Porto, Portugal
| | - Isadora Rosa
- Department of Gastroenterology, IPOLFG, EPE, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Helena Tavares de Sousa
- Department of Gastroenterology, Algarve Hospital University Centre - Portimão Unit, Portimão, Portugal
- ABC - Algarve Biomedical Center, University of Algarve, Faro, Portugal
| | - Paula Ministro
- Department of Gastroenterology, Viseu-Tondela Hospital Centre, Viseu, Portugal
| | - Irina Mocanu
- Department of Gastroenterology, Garcia da Orta Hospital, Almada, Portugal
| | - Ana Vieira
- Department of Gastroenterology, Garcia da Orta Hospital, Almada, Portugal
| | - Joana Castela
- Department of Gastroenterology, IPOLFG, EPE, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Joana Moleiro
- Department of Gastroenterology, IPOLFG, EPE, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Joana Roseira
- Department of Gastroenterology, Algarve Hospital University Centre - Portimão Unit, Portimão, Portugal
| | - Eugénia Cancela
- Department of Gastroenterology, Viseu-Tondela Hospital Centre, Viseu, Portugal
| | - Paula Sousa
- Department of Gastroenterology, Viseu-Tondela Hospital Centre, Viseu, Portugal
| | - Francisco Portela
- Department of Gastroenterology, Coimbra Hospital University Centre, Coimbra, Portugal
| | - Luís Correia
- Department of Gastroenterology, Northern Lisbon University Hospital Centre, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Paula Moreira
- Unidade de Farmacologia Clínica, São João Hospital University Centre, Porto, Portugal
| | - Mafalda Santiago
- Center for Health Technology and Services Research (CINTESIS), Porto, Portugal
- Portuguese Group of Studies in Inflammatory Bowel Disease (Grupo de Estudos da Doença Inflamatória Intestinal - GEDII), Porto, Portugal
| | - Sandra Dias
- Portuguese Group of Studies in Inflammatory Bowel Disease (Grupo de Estudos da Doença Inflamatória Intestinal - GEDII), Porto, Portugal
| | - Joana Afonso
- Department of Biomedicine, Unit of Pharmacology and Therapeutics, Faculty of Medicine, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
| | - Silvio Danese
- Department of Biomedical Sciences, Humanitas University, Milan, Italy
- IBD Center, Humanitas Research Hospital, IRCCS, Milan, Italy
| | - Laurent Peyrin-Biroulet
- Department of Gastroenterology and Inserm NGERE U1256, University Hospital of Nancy, University of Lorraine, Nancy, France
| | - Cláudia Camila Dias
- Center for Health Technology and Services Research (CINTESIS), Porto, Portugal
- Department of Community Medicine, Information and Health Decision Sciences (MEDCIDS), Faculty of Medicine, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
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