Cost-effectiveness of pancreas surveillance: The CDKN2A-p16-Leiden cohort

Small cyst size and lack of growth as negative predictors of malignant transformation in low-risk intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIM

For branch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (BD-IPMNs) without worrisome features (WFs) or high-risk stigmata (HRS), current guidelines recommend surveillance. However, these intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMNs), especially the small and stable-sized ones, carry a low risk of malignant transformation. Our aim was to assess whether small cyst size and absence of rapid growth provide reassurance against the development of WFs/HRS and malignancy (high-grade dysplasia (HGD) or pancreatic cancer (PC)).

METHODS

PubMed/Medline, Embase, the Cochrane Library and the Web of Science Core Collection were systematically searched from inception to May 2023 to identify studies investigating surveillance outcomes of low-risk BD-IPMNs. Studies assessing baseline cyst size and/or growth in relation to WFs/HRS and/or HGD/PC were included. The Newcastle-Ottawa scale tool was used to assess study quality.

RESULTS

Of the 1937 identified manuscripts, 21 studies were eligible for inclusion. The quality of these studies was considered reasonable. A negative association between cyst size and WFs/HRS development was found in 11 out of 13 relevant studies, but only one out of nine studies reported a negative association between size and malignancy. Regarding cyst growth, four out of six studies described a negative association with the development of WFs/HRS, and all six reported a negative association with malignancy. The pooled relative risk (RR) of developing WFs/HRS or malignancy for cysts ≤15 mm was 0.37 (95% CI 0.25-0.57) and the RR of developing malignancy for cyst growth <2-2.5 mm/year was 0.04 (95% CI 0.02-0.09)).

CONCLUSION

This systematic review and meta-analysis shows that small and stable-sized low-risk BD-IPMNs are associated with a markedly low progression rate, with stable cyst size being the most reassuring feature. Because of substantial heterogeneity in definitions and reported outcome measures, prospective studies are needed to confirm that surveillance of small and stable sized cyst can be de-intensified or even discontinued.

Pancreatic cancer screening in high-risk individuals

The incidence of pancreatic cancer is increasing, although globally it represents less than 3% of all cancers. Despite advances in medical and surgical management, survival rates have not significantly improved in recent years. Consequently, pancreatic cancer, though relatively uncommon, is the third leading cause of cancer-related deaths. This is primarily due to the disease´s late detection. Symptoms appear late and are nonspecific, and over 80% of cases are diagnosed at an advanced stage and unsuitable for curative surgery, resulting in a five-year survival rate below 10%. However, the exceptional cases that are diagnosed early show five-year survival rates exceeding 80%. Therefore, one of the keys to improving pancreatic cancer prognosis lies in early detection, making screening in high-risk individuals a potentially crucial strategy.

Review of the cost-effectiveness of surveillance for hereditary pancreatic cancer

Individuals with hereditary pancreatic cancer risk include high risk individuals (HRIs) with germline genetic susceptibility to pancreatic cancer (PC) and/or a strong family history of PC. Previously, studies have shown that PC surveillance in HRIs can downstage PC diagnosis and extend survival leading to pancreatic surveillance being recommended for certain HRIs. However, the optimal surveillance strategy remains uncertain, including which modalities should be used for surveillance, how frequently should surveillance be performed, and which sub-groups of HRIs should undergo surveillance. Additionally, in the ideal world PC surveillance should also be cost-effective. Cost-effectiveness analysis is a valuable tool that can consider the costs, potential health benefits, and risks among various PC surveillance strategies. In this review, we summarize the cost-effectiveness of various PC surveillance strategies for HRIs for hereditary pancreatic cancer and provide potential avenues for future work in this field. Additionally, we include cost-effectiveness studies among individuals with new-onset diabetes (NoD), a high-risk group for sporadic PC, as a comparison.

The role of endoscopic ultrasound in the detection of pancreatic lesions in high-risk individuals

Individuals at high risk of developing pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma are eligible for surveillance within research programs. These programs employ periodic imaging in the form of magnetic resonance imaging/magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography or endoscopic ultrasound for the detection of early cancer or high-grade precursor lesions. This narrative review discusses the role of endoscopic ultrasound within these surveillance programs. It details its overall strengths and limitations, yield, burden on patients, and how it compares to magnetic resonance imaging. Finally, recommendations are given when and how to incorporate endoscopic ultrasound in the surveillance of high-risk individuals.

Familial pancreatic cancer: a long fruitful journey

In the early years of my GI fellowship, a healthy 40-year-old man came to my clinic and announced that he was going to die of pancreatic cancer. His brothers, father and uncles had all died of the disease; he felt his fate was inescapable. I asked whether his family members had seen doctors or had any tests. His answer was yes to both. Even so, doctors could not diagnose the pancreatic cancer at early stages. CT scans were always negative. I thought to myself, in order to help this patient-CT scans may not be reliable for early detection. Perhaps other methods of imaging the pancreas might be of more benefit. This patient opened a door that led to a 30-year journey of trying to detect pancreatic cancer at earlier stages when it is curable.

Outcomes of a 3-Year Prospective Surveillance in Individuals at High Risk of Pancreatic Cancer

INTRODUCTION

Pancreatic cancer (PC) surveillance of high-risk individuals (HRI) is becoming more common worldwide, aiming at anticipating PC diagnosis at a preclinical stage. In 2015, the Italian Registry of Families at Risk of Pancreatic Cancer was created. We aimed to assess the prevalence and incidence of pancreatic findings, oncological outcomes, and harms 7 years after the Italian Registry of Families at Risk of Pancreatic Cancer inception, focusing on individuals with at least a 3-year follow-up or developing events before.

METHODS

HRI (subjects with a family history or mutation carriers with/without a family history were enrolled in 18 centers). They underwent annual magnetic resonance with cholangiopancreatography or endoscopic ultrasound (NCT04095195).

RESULTS

During the study period (June 2015-September 2022), 679 individuals were enrolled. Of these, 524 (77.2%) underwent at least baseline imaging, and 156 (29.8%) with at least a 3-year follow-up or pancreatic malignancy/premalignancy-related events, and represented the study population. The median age was 51 (interquartile range 16) years. Familial PC cases accounted for 81.4% of HRI and individuals with pathogenic variant for 18.6%. Malignant (n = 8) and premalignant (1 PanIN3) lesions were found in 9 individuals. Five of these 8 cases occurred in pathogenic variant carriers, 4 in familial PC cases (2 tested negative at germline testing and 2 others were not tested). Three of the 8 PC were stage I. Five of the 8 PC were resectable, 3 Stage I, all advanced cases being prevalent. The 1-, 2-, and 3-year cumulative hazard of PC was 1.7%, 2.5%, and 3%, respectively. Median overall and disease-free survival of patients with resected PC were 18 and 12 months (95% CI not computable). Considering HRI who underwent baseline imaging, 6 pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms (1 resected) and 1 low-yield surgery (low-grade mixed-intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm) were also reported.

DISCUSSION

PC surveillance in a fully public health care system is feasible and safe, and leads to early PC or premalignant lesions diagnoses, mostly at baseline but also over time.

Significance of TP53, CDKN2A, SMAD4 and KRAS in Pancreatic Cancer

The present review demonstrates the major tumor suppressor genes, including TP53, CDKN2A and SMAD4, associated with pancreatic cancer. Each gene's role, prevalence and impact on tumor development and progression are analyzed, focusing on the intricate molecular landscape of pancreatic cancer. In addition, this review underscores the prognostic significance of specific mutations, such as loss of TP53, and explores some potential targeted therapies tailored to these molecular signatures. The findings highlight the importance of genomic analyses for risk assessment, early detection and the design of personalized treatment approaches in pancreatic cancer. Overall, this review provides a comprehensive analysis of the molecular intricacies of pancreatic tumors, paving the way for more effective and tailored therapeutic interventions.