Search for the best prediction model, definition and growth charts for fetal growth restriction using a composite of adverse perinatal outcomes: a catch-22?

Placental pathology lesions: International Society for Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology vs Society for Maternal-Fetal Medicine fetal growth restriction definitions

BACKGROUND

Research on the definition of fetal growth restriction (FGR) has focused on predicting adverse perinatal outcomes. A significant limitation of this approach is that the individual outcomes of interest could be related to the condition and the treatment. Evaluation of outcomes that reflect the pathophysiology of FGR may overcome this limitation.

OBJECTIVE

To compare the diagnostic performance of the FGR definitions established by the International Society for Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology (ISUOG) and the Society for Maternal-Fetal Medicine (SMFM) to predict placental histopathological findings associated with placental insufficiency and a composite adverse neonatal outcome (ANeO).

STUDY DESIGN

In this retrospective cohort study of singleton pregnancies, the ISUOG and the SMFM guidelines were used to identify pregnancies with FGR and a corresponding control group. The primary outcome was the prediction of placental histopathological findings associated with placental insufficiency, defined as lesions associated with maternal vascular malperfusion (MVM). A composite ANeO (ie, umbilical artery pH≤7.1, Apgar score at 5 minutes ≤4, neonatal intensive care unit admission, hypoglycemia, respiratory distress syndrome requiring mechanical ventilation, intrapartum fetal distress requiring expedited delivery, and perinatal death) was investigated as a secondary outcome. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and the areas under the receiver-operating-characteristics curves were determined for each FGR definition. Logistic regression models were used to assess the association between each definition and the studied outcomes. A subgroup analysis of the diagnostic performance of both definitions stratifying the population in early and late FGR was also performed.

RESULTS

Both societies' definitions showed a similar diagnostic performance as well as a significant association with the primary (ISUOG adjusted odds ratio 3.01 [95% confidence interval 2.42, 3.75]; SMFM adjusted odds ratio 2.85 [95% confidence interval 2.31, 3.51]) and secondary outcomes (ISUOG adjusted odds ratio 1.95 [95% confidence interval 1.56, 2.43]; SMFM adjusted odds ratio 2.12 [95% confidence interval 1.70, 2.65]). Furthermore, both FGR definitions had a limited discriminatory capacity for placental histopathological findings of MVM and the composite ANeO (area under the receiver-operating-characteristics curve ISUOG 0.63 [95% confidence interval 0.61, 0.65], 0.59 [95% confidence interval 0.56, 0.61]; area under the receiver-operating-characteristics SMFM 0.63 [95% confidence interval 0.61, 0.66], 0.60 [95% confidence interval 0.57, 0.62]).

CONCLUSION

The ISUOG and the SMFM FGR definitions have limited discriminatory capacity for placental histopathological findings associated with placental insufficiency and a composite ANeO.

Doppler ultrasound of umbilical and middle cerebral artery in third trimester small-for-gestational age fetuses to decide on timing of delivery for suspected fetal growth restriction: A cohort with nested RCT (DRIGITAT)

OBJECTIVE

To assess the association of the umbilicocerebral ratio (UCR) with adverse perinatal outcome in late preterm small-for-gestational age (SGA) fetuses and to investigate the effect on perinatal outcomes of immediate delivery.

DESIGN

Multicentre cohort study with nested randomised controlled trial (RCT).

SETTING

Nineteen secondary and tertiary care centres.

POPULATION

Singleton SGA pregnancies (estimated fetal weight [EFW] or fetal abdominal circumference [FAC] <10th centile) from 32 to 36+6 weeks.

METHODS

Women were classified: (1) RCT-eligible: abnormal UCR twice consecutive and EFW below the 3rd centile at/or below 35 weeks or below the 10th centile at 36 weeks; (2) abnormal UCR once or intermittent; (3) never abnormal UCR. Consenting RCT-eligible patients were randomised for immediate delivery from 34 weeks or expectant management until 37 weeks.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

A composite adverse perinatal outcome (CAPO), defined as perinatal death, birth asphyxia or major neonatal morbidity.

RESULTS

The cohort consisted of 690 women. The study was halted prematurely for low RCT-inclusion rates (n = 40). In the RCT-eligible group, gestational age at delivery, birthweight and birthweight multiple of the median (MoM) (0.66, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.59-0.72) were significantly lower and the CAPO (n = 50, 44%, p < 0.05) was more frequent. Among patients randomised for immediate delivery there was a near-significant lower birthweight (p = 0.05) and higher CAPO (p = 0.07). EFW MoM, pre-eclampsia, gestational hypertension and Doppler classification were independently associated with the CAPO (area under the curve 0.71, 95% CI 0.67-0.76).

CONCLUSIONS

Perinatal risk was effectively identified by low EFW MoM and UCR. Early delivery of SGA fetuses with an abnormal UCR at 34-36 weeks should only be performed in the context of clinical trials.

Prenatal prediction of adverse outcome using different charts and definitions of fetal growth restriction

OBJECTIVE

Antenatal growth assessment using ultrasound aims to identify small fetuses that are at higher risk of perinatal morbidity and mortality. This study explored whether the association between suboptimal fetal growth and adverse perinatal outcome varies with different definitions of fetal growth restriction (FGR) and different weight charts/standards.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of 17 261 singleton non-anomalous pregnancies at ≥ 24 + 0 weeks' gestation that underwent routine ultrasound at a tertiary referral hospital. Estimated fetal weight (EFW) and Doppler indices were converted into percentiles using a reference standard (INTERGROWTH-21st (IG-21)) and various reference charts (Hadlock, Fetal Medicine Foundation (FMF) and Swedish). Test characteristics were assessed using the consensus definition, Society for Maternal-Fetal Medicine (SMFM) definition and Swedish criteria for FGR. Adverse perinatal outcome was defined as perinatal death, admission to the neonatal intensive care unit at term, 5-min Apgar score < 7 and therapeutic cooling for neonatal encephalopathy. The association between FGR according to each definition and adverse perinatal outcome was compared. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to test the strength of association between ultrasound parameters and adverse perinatal outcome. Ultrasound parameters were also tested for correlation.

RESULTS

IG-21, Hadlock and FMF fetal size references classified as growth-restricted 1.5%, 3.6% and 4.6% of fetuses, respectively, using the consensus definition and 2.9%, 8.8% and 10.6% of fetuses, respectively, using the SMFM definition. The sensitivity of the definition/chart combinations for adverse perinatal outcome varied from 4.4% (consensus definition with IG-21 charts) to 13.2% (SMFM definition with FMF charts). Specificity varied from 89.4% (SMFM definition with FMF charts) to 98.6% (consensus definition with IG-21 charts). The consensus definition and Swedish criteria showed the highest specificity, positive predictive value and positive likelihood ratio in detecting adverse outcome, irrespective of the reference chart/standard used. Conversely, the SMFM definition had the highest sensitivity across all investigated growth charts. Low EFW, abnormal mean uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI) and abnormal cerebroplacental ratio were significantly associated with adverse perinatal outcome and there was a positive correlation between the covariates. Multivariate logistic regression showed that UtA-PI > 95th percentile and EFW < 5th percentile were the only parameters consistently associated with adverse outcome, irrespective of the definitions or fetal growth chart/standard used.

CONCLUSIONS

The apparent prevalence of FGR varies according to the definition and fetal size reference chart/standard used. Irrespective of the method of classification, the sensitivity for the identification of adverse perinatal outcome remains low. EFW, UtA-PI and fetal Doppler parameters are significant predictors of adverse perinatal outcome. As these indices are correlated with one other, a prediction algorithm is advocated to overcome the limitations of using these parameters in isolation. © 2023 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Placental pathology and neonatal morbidity: exploring the impact of gestational age at birth

AIM

To evaluate placental pathology in term and post-term births, investigate differences in clinical characteristics, and assess the risk of adverse neonatal outcome.

METHODS

This prospective observational study included 315 singleton births with gestational age (GA) > 36 weeks + 6 days meeting the local criteria for referral to placental histopathologic examination. We applied the Amsterdam criteria to classify the placentas. Births were categorized according to GA; early-term (37 weeks + 0 days to 38 weeks + 6 days), term (39 weeks + 0 days to 40 weeks + 6 days), late-term (41 weeks + 0 days to 41 weeks + 6 days), and post-term births (≥ 42 weeks + 0 days). The groups were compared regarding placental pathology findings and clinical characteristics. Adverse neonatal outcomes were defined as 5-minute Apgar score < 7, umbilical cord artery pH < 7.0, admission to the neonatal intensive care unit or intrauterine death. A composite adverse outcome included one or more adverse outcomes. The associations between placental pathology, adverse neonatal outcomes, maternal and pregnancy characteristics were evaluated by logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

Late-term and post-term births exhibited significantly higher rates of histologic chorioamnionitis (HCA), fetal inflammatory response, clinical chorioamnionitis (CCA) and transfer to neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) compared to early-term and term births. HCA and maternal smoking in pregnancy were associated with adverse outcomes in an adjusted analysis. Nulliparity, CCA, emergency section and increasing GA were all significantly associated with HCA.

CONCLUSIONS

HCA was more prevalent in late and post-term births and was the only factor, along with maternal smoking, that was associated with adverse neonatal outcomes. Since nulliparity, CCA and GA beyond term are associated with HCA, this should alert the clinician and elicit continuous intrapartum monitoring for timely intervention.

Construction of prediction model for fetal growth restriction during first trimester in an Asian population

OBJECTIVE

To construct a prediction model for fetal growth restriction (FGR) during the first trimester of pregnancy and evaluate its screening performance.

METHODS

This was a prospective cohort study of singleton pregnancies that underwent routine ultrasound screening at 11 to 13 + 6 weeks at the Affiliated Suzhou Hospital of Nanjing Medical University between January 2019 and April 2022. Basic clinical information, ultrasound indicators and serum biomarkers of pregnant women were collected. Fetal weight assessment was based on the fetal growth curve for the Southern Chinese population. FGR was diagnosed according to Delphi consensus criteria. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (lasso) regression was used to select variables for inclusion in the model. Discrimination, calibration and clinical effectiveness of the model were evaluated in training and validation cohorts.

RESULTS

A total of 1188 pregnant women were included, of whom 108 had FGR. Lasso regression identified seven predictive features, including history of maternal hypertension, maternal smoking or passive smoking, gravidity, uterine artery pulsatility index, ductus venosus pulsatility index and multiples of the median values of placental growth factor and soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1. The nomogram prediction model constructed from these seven variables accurately predicted FGR, and the area under the receiver-operating-characteristics curve in the validation cohort was 0.82 (95% CI, 0.74-0.90). The calibration curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow test demonstrated good calibration, and the clinical decision curve and clinical impact curve supported its practical value in a clinical setting.

CONCLUSION

The multi-index prediction model for FGR has good predictive value during the first trimester. © 2023 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Abdominal circumference growth velocity as a predictor of adverse perinatal outcomes in small-for-gestational-age fetuses

OBJECTIVE

To assess the predictive value of abdominal circumference growth velocity (ACGV) between the second and third trimesters to predict adverse perinatal outcomes in a cohort of small-for-gestational-age fetuses without evidence of placental insufficiency (i.e. fetal growth restriction).

MATERIAL AND METHODS

This is a single-center retrospective cohort study of all singleton pregnancies with small-for-gestational-age fetuses diagnosed and delivered at a quaternary institution. Crude and adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and corresponding confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated via logistic regression models to assess the potential association between abnormal ACGV (i.e. ≤10th centile) and adverse perinatal outcomes defined as a composite outcome (i.e. umbilical artery pH <7.1, 5-min Apgar score <7, admission to the neonatal intensive care unit, hypoglycemia, intrapartum fetal distress requiring expedited delivery, and perinatal death). Furthermore, the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) of three logistic regression models based on estimated fetal weight and ACGV for predicting the composite outcome is also reported.

RESULTS

A total of 154 pregnancies were included for analysis. The median birthweight for the cohort was 2,437 g (interquartile range [IQR] 2280, 2635). Overall, the primary composite outcome was relatively common (29.2%). In addition, there was a significant association between abnormal ACGV and adverse perinatal outcomes (OR 3.37, 95% CI 1.60, 7.13; adjusted OR 4.30, 95% CI 1.77, 10.49). Likewise, the AUC for the ACGV was marginally higher (0.64) than the estimated fetal weight (0.54) and ACGV + estimated fetal weight (0.54). Still, no significant difference was detected between the curves (p = 0.297).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that an ACGV below the 10th centile is a risk factor for adverse perinatal outcomes among small-for-gestational-age fetuses.

Predictive value of fetal growth trajectory from 20 weeks of gestation onwards for severe adverse perinatal outcome in low-risk population: secondary analysis of IRIS study

OBJECTIVES

The placental dysfunction underlying fetal growth restriction (FGR) may result in severe adverse perinatal outcome (SAPO) related to fetal hypoxia. Traditionally, the diagnostic criteria for FGR have been based on fetal size, an approach that is inherently flawed because it often results in either over- or underdiagnosis. The anomaly ultrasound scan at 20 weeks' gestation may be an appropriate time at which to set a benchmark for growth potential of the individual fetus. We hypothesized that the fetal growth trajectory from that point onwards may be informative regarding third-trimester placental dysfunction. The aim of this study was to investigate the predictive value for SAPO of a slow fetal growth trajectory between 18 + 0 to 23 + 6 weeks and 32 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation in a large, low-risk population.

METHODS

This was a post-hoc data analysis of the IUGR Risk Selection (IRIS) study, a Dutch nationwide cluster-randomized trial assessing the (cost-)effectiveness of routine third-trimester sonography in reducing SAPO. In the current analysis, for the first ultrasound examination we used ultrasound data from the routine anomaly scan at 18 + 0 to 23 + 6 weeks' gestation, and for the second we used data from an ultrasound examination performed between 32 + 0 and 36 + 6 weeks' gestation. Using multilevel logistic regression, we analyzed whether SAPO was predicted by a slow fetal growth trajectory, which was defined as a decline in abdominal circumference (AC) and/or estimated fetal weight (EFW) of more than 20 percentiles or more than 50 percentiles or as an AC growth velocity (ACGV) < 10th percentile (p10). In addition, we analyzed the combination of these indicators of slow fetal growth with small-for-gestational age (SGA) (AC or EFW < p10) and severe SGA (AC/EFW < 3rd percentile) at 32 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation.

RESULTS

Our sample included the data of 6296 low-risk singleton pregnancies, among which 82 (1.3%) newborns experienced at least one SAPO. Standalone declines in AC or EFW of > 20 or > 50 percentiles or ACGV < p10 were not associated with increased odds of SAPO. EFW < p10 between 32 + 0 and 36 + 6 weeks' gestation combined with a decline in EFW of > 20 percentiles was associated with an increased rate of SAPO. The combination of AC or EFW < p10 between 32 + 0 and 36 + 6 weeks' gestation with ACGV < p10 was also associated with increased odds of SAPO. The odds ratios of these associations were higher if the neonate was SGA at birth.

CONCLUSIONS

In a low-risk population, a slow fetal growth trajectory as a standalone criterion does not distinguish adequately between fetuses with FGR and those that are constitutionally small. This absence of association may be a result of diagnostic inaccuracies and/or post-diagnostic (e.g. intervention and selection) biases. We conclude that new approaches to detect placental insufficiency should integrate information from diagnostic tools such as maternal serum biomarkers and Doppler ultrasound measurements. © 2023 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Do differences in diagnostic criteria for late fetal growth restriction matter?

BACKGROUND

Criteria for diagnosis of fetal growth restriction differ widely according to national and international guidelines, and further heterogeneity arises from the use of different biometric and Doppler reference charts, making the diagnosis of fetal growth restriction highly variable.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to compare fetal growth restriction definitions between Delphi consensus and Society for Maternal-Fetal Medicine definitions, using different standards/charts for fetal biometry and different reference ranges for Doppler velocimetry parameters.

STUDY DESIGN

From the TRUFFLE 2 feasibility study (856 women with singleton pregnancy at 32+0 to 36+6 weeks of gestation and at risk of fetal growth restriction), we selected 564 women with available mid-pregnancy biometry. For the comparison, we used standards/charts for estimated fetal weight and abdominal circumference from Hadlock, INTERGROWTH-21st, and GROW and Chitty. Percentiles for umbilical artery pulsatility index and its ratios with middle cerebral artery pulsatility index were calculated using Arduini and Ebbing reference charts. Sensitivity and specificity for low birthweight and adverse perinatal outcome were evaluated.

RESULTS

Different combinations of definitions and reference charts identified substantially different proportions of fetuses within our population as having fetal growth restriction, varying from 38% (with Delphi consensus definition, INTERGROWTH-21st biometric standards, and Arduini Doppler reference ranges) to 93% (with Society for Maternal-Fetal Medicine definition and Hadlock biometric standards). None of the different combinations tested appeared effective, with relative risk for birthweight <10th percentile between 1.4 and 2.1. Birthweight <10th percentile was observed most frequently when selection was made with the GROW/Chitty charts, slightly less with the Hadlock standard, and least frequently with the INTERGROWTH-21st standard. Using the Ebbing Doppler reference ranges resulted in a far higher proportion identified as having fetal growth restriction compared with the Arduini Doppler reference ranges, whereas Delphi consensus definition with Ebbing Doppler reference ranges produced similar results to those of the Society for Maternal-Fetal Medicine definition. Application of Delphi consensus definition with Arduini Doppler reference ranges was significantly associated with adverse perinatal outcome, with any biometric standards/charts. The Society for Maternal-Fetal Medicine definition could not accurately detect adverse perinatal outcome irrespective of estimated fetal weight standard/chart used.

CONCLUSION

Different combinations of fetal growth restriction definitions, biometry standards/charts, and Doppler reference ranges identify different proportions of fetuses with fetal growth restriction. The difference in adverse perinatal outcome may be modest, but can have a significant impact in terms of rate of intervention.

Risk of adverse perinatal outcomes in pregnancies with "small" fetuses not meeting Delphi consensus criteria for fetal growth restriction

BACKGROUND

Previous research endeavors examining the association between clinical characteristics, sonographic indices, and the risk of adverse perinatal outcomes in pregnancies complicated by fetal growth restriction have been hampered by a lack of agreement regarding its definition. In 2016, a consensus definition was reached by an international panel of experts via the Delphi procedure, but as it currently stands, this has not been endorsed by all professional organizations.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to assess whether an independent association exists between estimated fetal weight and/or abdominal circumference of <10th percentile and adverse perinatal outcomes when consensus criteria for growth restriction are not met.

STUDY DESIGN

Data were derived from a passive prospective cohort of singleton nonanomalous pregnancies at a single academic tertiary care institution (2010-2022) that fell into 3 groups: (1) consecutive fetuses that met the Delphi criteria for fetal growth restriction, (2) small-for-gestational-age fetuses that failed to meet the consensus criteria, and (3) fetuses with birthweights of 20th to 80th percentile randomly selected as an appropriately grown (appropriate-for-gestational-age) comparator group. This nested case-control study used 1:1 propensity score matching to adjust for confounders among the 3 groups: fetal growth restriction cases, small-for-gestational-age cases, and controls. Our primary outcome was a composite: perinatal demise, 5-minute Apgar score of <7, cord pH of ≤7.10, or base excess of ≥12. Pregnancy characteristics with a P value of <.2 on univariate analyses were considered for incorporation into a multivariable model along with fetal growth restriction and small-for-gestational-age to evaluate which outcomes were independently predictive of adverse perinatal outcomes.

RESULTS

Overall, 2866 pregnancies met the inclusion criteria. After propensity score matching, there were 2186 matched pairs, including 511 (23%), 1093 (50%), and 582 (27%) patients in the small-for-gestational-age, appropriate-for-gestational-age, and fetal growth restriction groups, respectively. Moreover, 210 pregnancies (10%) were complicated by adverse perinatal outcomes. None of the pregnancies with small-for-gestational-age OR appropriate-for-gestational-age fetuses resulted in perinatal demise. Twenty-three of 511 patients (5%) in the small-for-gestational-age group had adverse outcomes based on 5-minute Apgar scores and/or cord gas results compared with 77 of 1093 patients (7%) in the appropriate-for-gestational-age group (odds ratio, 0.62; 95% confidence interval, 0.39-1.00). Furthermore, 110 of 582 patients (19%) with fetal growth restriction that met the consensus criteria had adverse outcomes (odds ratio, 3.08; 95% confidence interval, 2.25-4.20), including 34 patients with perinatal demise or death before discharge. Factors independently associated with increased odds of adverse outcomes included chronic hypertension, hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, and early-onset fetal growth restriction. Small-for-gestational age was not associated with the primary outcome after adjustment for 6 other factors included in a model predicting adverse perinatal outcomes. The bias-corrected bootstrapped area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the model was 0.72 (95% confidence interval, 0.66-0.74). The bias-corrected bootstrapped area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for a 7-factor model predicting adverse perinatal outcomes was 0.72 (95% confidence interval, 0.66-0.74).

CONCLUSION

This study found no evidence that fetuses with an estimated fetal weight and/or abdominal circumference of 3rd to 9th percentile that fail to meet the consensus criteria for fetal growth restriction (based on Doppler waveforms and/or growth velocity of ≥32 weeks) are at increased risk of adverse outcomes. Although the growth of these fetuses should be monitored closely to rule out evolving growth restriction, most cases are healthy constitutionally small fetuses. The management of these fetuses in the same manner as those with suspected pathologic growth restriction may result in unnecessary antenatal testing and increase the risk of iatrogenic complications resulting from preterm or early term delivery of small fetuses that are at relatively low risk of adverse perinatal outcomes.

Implication of third-trimester screening accuracy for small-for-gestational age and additive value of third-trimester growth-trajectory indicators in predicting severe adverse perinatal outcome in low-risk population: pragmatic secondary analysis of IRIS study

OBJECTIVES

To examine the implications of third-trimester small-for-gestational-age (SGA) screening accuracy on severe adverse perinatal outcome (SAPO) and obstetric intervention in a low-risk population. Furthermore, we aimed to explore the additive value of third-trimester sonographic growth-trajectory measurements in predicting SAPO and obstetric intervention.

METHODS

This was a secondary analysis of a Dutch national multicenter stepped-wedge-cluster randomized trial among 11 820 low-risk pregnant women. Using multilevel multivariable logistic regression analysis, we compared SAPO and obstetric interventions in SGA neonates with and without SGA suspected prenatally (true positives and false negatives) and non-SGA neonates with and without SGA suspected prenatally (false positives and true negatives). In a subsample (n = 7989), we analyzed the associations of abdominal circumference (AC) and estimated fetal weight (EFW) < 10th centile (p10) and third-trimester growth-trajectory indicators AC and EFW crossing > 20 and AC crossing > 50 centiles and the lowest decile of AC growth-velocity Z-scores (ACGV < 10%) with SAPO and obstetric interventions.

RESULTS

SGA infants, i.e. the true-positive and false-negative cases, had an increased risk of SAPO (adjusted odds ratio (aOR), 4.46 (95% CI, 2.28-8.75) and aOR 2.61 (95% CI, 1.74-3.89), respectively), and obstetric intervention (aOR for: induction of labor, 2.99 (95% CI, 2.15-4.17) and 1.38 (95% CI, 1.14-1.66); Cesarean section, 1.82 (95% CI, 1.25-2.66) and 1.27 (95% CI, 1.05-1.54); medically indicated preterm delivery, 2.67 (95% CI, 1.97-3.62) and 1.20 (95% CI, 1.03-1.40)). The false-positive cases did not differ from the true negatives for all outcomes, including obstetric intervention. Of the third-trimester growth-trajectory indicators, only ACGV < 10% was associated moderately with SAPO (aOR, 2.15 (95% CI, 1.17-3.97)), while AC and EFW crossing > 20 and AC crossing > 50 centiles were not. Both EFW < p10 alone (aOR, 1.95 (95% CI, 1.13-3.38)) and EFW < p10 combined with ACGV < 10% (aOR, 4.69 (95% CI, 1.99-11.07)) were associated with SAPO, and they performed equally well in predicting SAPO (area under the receiver-operating-characteristics curve, 0.71 (95% CI, 0.65-0.76) vs 0.72 (95% CI, 0.67-0.77), P = 0.51).

CONCLUSION

Neonates who had been suspected falsely of being SGA during pregnancy had no higher rates of obstetric intervention than did those without suspicion of SGA prenatally. Our results do not support that third-trimester low fetal growth velocity (ACGV < 10%) may be of additive value for the identification of fetuses at risk of SAPO in populations remaining at low risk throughout pregnancy. AC and EFW crossing > 20 and AC crossing > 50 centiles performed poorly in identifying abnormal fetal growth. © 2023 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Predictive index for adverse perinatal outcome in pregnancies complicated by fetal growth restriction

OBJECTIVES

To develop and validate an index predictive of adverse perinatal outcome (APO) in pregnancies meeting the consensus-based criteria for fetal growth restriction (FGR) endorsed by the International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology (ISUOG).

METHODS

This was a retrospective analysis of consecutive singleton non-anomalous gestations meeting the ISUOG-endorsed criteria for FGR at a single tertiary care center from November 2010 to August 2020. The dataset was divided randomly into a development set (two-thirds) and a validation set (one-third). The primary composite APO comprised one or more of: perinatal demise, Grade III-IV intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH), periventricular leukomalacia (PVL), seizures, hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy (HIE), necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC), sepsis, bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) and length of stay in the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) > 7 days. Regression analysis incorporated clinical factors readily available at the time of FGR diagnosis. The sum of β coefficient-based weights yielded an index score, the performance of which was assessed in the validation set. Score cut-offs were selected to identify 'high-risk' and 'low-risk' ranges for which positive (PPV) and negative (NPV) predictive values and positive (LR+) and negative (LR-) likelihood ratios were calculated.

RESULTS

Of the 875 consecutive pregnancies that met the criteria for FGR and were included in the study cohort, 405 (46%) were complicated by one or more components of the composite APO, including 54 (6%) perinatal deaths, 22 (3%) neonates with Grade III-IV IVH and/or PVL, nine (1%) with seizures and/or HIE, 91 (10%) with BPD, 57 (7%) with sepsis, 21 (2%) with NEC, and 361 (41%) who remained in the NICU > 7 days. In addition, 270 (31%) pregnancies were delivered by Cesarean section for non-reassuring fetal status, 43 (5%) were admitted to the NICU for < 7 days, 79 (9%) had 5-min Apgar score < 7, 125/631 (20%) had a cord gas pH ≤ 7.1 and 35/631 (6%) had a base excess ≥ 12 mmol/L. The predictive index we developed included seven factors available at the time of FGR diagnosis: hypertensive disorder of pregnancy (HDP) (+8 points), chronic hypertension without HDP (+4 points), gestational age ≤ 32 weeks (+5 points), absent or reversed end-diastolic flow in the umbilical artery (+8 points), prepregnancy body mass index ≥ 35 kg/m2 (+3 points), isolated abdominal circumference < 3rd  percentile (-4 points) and non-Hispanic black race (-2 points). The bias-corrected bootstrapped (1000 replicates) area under the receiver-operating-characteristics curve (AUC) of the predictive index for composite APO in the validation group was 0.88 (95% CI, 0.84-0.92), which was similar to that in the development group (AUC, 0.86 (95% CI, 0.82-0.89); P = 0.34). In the total cohort, 40% of pregnancies had a low-risk index score (≤ 2), associated with a NPV of 85% (95% CI, 81-88%) and a LR- of 0.21 (95% CI, 0.16-0.27), and 23% had a high-risk index score (≥ 10), associated with a PPV of 96% (95% CI, 93-98%) and a LR+ of 27.36 (95% CI, 14.33-52.23). Of the remaining pregnancies that had an intermediate-risk score, 50% were complicated by composite APO.

CONCLUSION

An easy-to-use index incorporating seven clinical factors readily available at the time of FGR diagnosis is predictive of APO and may prove useful in counseling and management of pregnancies meeting the ISUOG-endorsed criteria for FGR. © 2022 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.