Prospective evaluation of the risk of pre-eclampsia using logistic regression analysis

Screening for pre-eclampsia: a systematic review of tests combining uterine artery Doppler with other markers

AIMS

To perform a systematic review of screening for pre-eclampsia (PE) with the combination of uterine artery Doppler (UAD), maternal history, mean arterial pressure and/or maternal serum markers.

METHODS

We identified eligible studies through a search of Medline, and, for each included study, we assessed the risk of bias and extracted relevant data. We reported the performance of screening tests according to the target population (low- or high-risk), the trimester of screening (first and/or second) and the subset of PE screened for (early and late).

RESULTS

Several tests provided moderate or convincing prediction of early PE, but screening for late PE was poor. Although UAD is more accurate in the second trimester, we found encouraging results for first-trimester screening when it was combined with other markers. Performance of screening was consistently lower in populations with risk factors for PE in the maternal history.

CONCLUSIONS

We present encouraging results for the prediction of early PE, even in the first trimester of pregnancy. The different performance of tests in screening for early vs. late PE, and of low- vs. high-risk populations, supports the concept that PE is a heterogeneous disease.

Identification of high-risk patients for adverse pregnancy outcome based on multivariate logistic regression analysis at 20-23 gestational weeks

AIMS

To establish and test a multivariate approach for identification of patients with high risk for adverse pregnancy outcome (APO) by a combination of sonographic (20+0-23+6 weeks) and biometrical data in a test group and to prove its effectiveness in a validation group.

METHODS

In order to develop a multivariate approach for identifying patients at high risk for APO, data from 15,855 non-treated singleton pregnancies (test group A), with well-known outcomes, were analysed retrospectively. Registered parameters were parity, body mass index (BMI), mean of pulsatility index of both uterine arteries (meanPI), presence of notch, and depth of notch described as the mean of the notch index of both uterine arteries (meanNI). In a second step, the model was validated in 3678 subsequent non-treated singleton pregnancies (validation group B).

RESULTS

In test group A, the calculated probabilities of APO were found between 1.3% and 82.8%, with the 95th centile at 11.2% and the 99th centile at 28.3%. In validation group B, in patients with a low calculated risk for APO <10%, complications were found in 4.4%. In patients with an intermediate risk of APO between 10% and 28%, complications were found in 10.7%. In patients from group B who were identified to be at high risk with a calculated probability of APO >28%, complications were found in 39.1%.

CONCLUSION

A multivariate approach toward risk-assessment of APO seems to be a promising method for identifying patients who are at high risk for APO. Besides the individual consequence of intensive surveillance, the identification of groups of patients at high risk for APO might serve as a basis for interventional studies.