Universal cervical-length screening to prevent preterm birth: a cost-effectiveness analysis

Association between miRNAs in serum at 10-14 gestational weeks and spontaneous preterm delivery

INTRODUCTION

Preterm delivery (PTD) is the leading cause of death in children under 5 years of age. Cervical shortening detected by ultrasound can be used to predict PTD, but prediction is not perfect, and complementary diagnostic markers are needed. Recently, specific plasma microribonucleic acid (miRNAs) detected in early second trimester were shown to be associated with spontaneous PTD in high-risk women with a singleton pregnancy. The aim of this study was to explore to what extent these miRNAs are associated with spontaneous PTD and cervical length in a general population.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

This study is a nested case-control study within the CERVIX study. The CERVIX study evaluated the ability of cervical length screening with transvaginal ultrasound to identify women at risk of PTD. In the present study, women who delivered spontaneously <34 weeks (n = 61) were compared with a control group of women who delivered at full term (39 + 0 to 40 + 6 gestational weeks, n = 205). Archived serum samples were analyzed with RT-qPCR for miRNA expression levels of let-7a-5p, miR-150-5p, miR-15b-5p, miR-185-5p, miR-191-5p, miR-19b-3p, miR-23a-3p, miR-374a-5p, and miR-93-5p. The mean relative expression was compared between the groups. Sub-analyses were performed for women delivering <32, <30, and <28 weeks versus the full-term group.

RESULTS

The analyzed miRNAs were not significantly differentially expressed in women delivering <34 weeks compared to those delivering at full term. MiR-191-5p and miR-93-5p were significantly overexpressed in women who delivered <32 weeks, and further increase in fold change was observed with decreasing gestational age at delivery. The level of miR-15b-5p was significantly higher in women delivering at <30 weeks compared to those delivering at full term.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study shows that overexpression of miR-93-5p, miR-15b-5p, and miR-191-5p in serum at early gestation is associated with spontaneous PTD in a general population. Further research is needed to evaluate the potential of these miRNAs as future biomarkers for spontaneous PTD, as well as their pathophysiological role in spontaneous PTD.

Vaginal Progesterone to Prevent Spontaneous Preterm Birth in Women With a Sonographic Short Cervix: The Story of the PREGNANT Trial

The PREGNANT trial was a randomized, placebo-controlled, multicenter trial designed to determine the efficacy and safety of vaginal progesterone (VP) to reduce the risk of birth < 33 weeks and of neonatal complications in women with a sonographic short cervix (10 to 20 mm) in the mid-trimester (19 to 23 6/7 wk). Patients allocated to receive VP had a 45% lower rate of preterm birth (8.9% vs 16.1%; relative risk = 0.55; 95% CI: 0.33-0.92). Neonates born to mothers allocated to VP had a 60% reduction in the rate of respiratory distress syndrome. This article reviews the background, design, execution, interpretation, and impact of the PREGNANT Trial.

Cost-effectiveness of universal routine sonographic cervical-length measurement at 19 to 25 weeks' gestation

BACKGROUND

National second-trimester scanning of cervical length was introduced in Israel in 2010, and in the decade thereafter, a significant systematic reduction in preterm birth and in the delivery of low birthweight babies was found among singletons.

OBJECTIVE

In this study, we sought to estimate the cost-effectiveness of a national policy mandating second-trimester cervical length screening by ultrasound, followed by vaginal progesterone treatment for short cervical length in comparison with no screening strategy.

STUDY DESIGN

We constructed a decision model comparing 2 strategies, namely (1) universal cervical length screening, and (2) no screening strategy. This study used the national delivery registry of Israel's Ministry of Health. All women diagnosed with a second-trimester cervical length <25 mm were treated with vaginal progesterone and were monitored with a bimonthly ultrasound scan for cervical dynamics and threat of early delivery. Preterm birth prevalence associated with short cervical length, the efficacy of progesterone in preterm birth prevention, and the accuracy of cervical length measurements were derived from previous studies. The cost of progesterone and bimonthly sonographic surveillance, low birthweight delivery, newborn admission to intensive care units, the first-year costs of managing preterm birth and low birthweight, and instances of handicaps and the cost of their follow-up were extracted from the publicly posted registry of Israel's Ministry of Health and Israel Social Securities data. Monte Carlo simulations decision tree mode, Tornado diagrams, and 1- and 2-way sensitivity analyses were implemented and the base case and sensitivity to parameters that were predicted to influence cost-effectiveness were calculated.

RESULTS

Without cervical length screening, the discounted quality-adjusted life years were 30.179, and with universal cervical length screening, it increased to 30.198 (difference of 0.018 quality-adjusted life years). The average cost of no screening for cervical length strategy was $1047, and for universal cervical length screening, it was reduced to $998. The calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was -$2676 per quality-adjusted life year (dividing the difference in costs by the difference in quality-adjusted life years). Monte Carlo simulation of cervical length screening of 170,000 singleton newborns (rounded large number close to the number of singleton newborns in Israel) showed that 95.17% of all babies were delivered at gestational week ≥37 in comparison with 94.46% of babies with the no screening strategy. Given 170,000 singleton births, the national savings of screening for short cervical length when compared with no cervical length screening amounted to $8.31M annually, equating to $48.84 for a base case, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for each case of low birthweight or very low birthweight avoided was -$14,718. A cervical length <25 mm was measured for 30,090 women, and of those, 24,650 were false positives. The major parameters that affected the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio were the incidence of preterm birth, the specificity of cervical length measurements, and the efficacy of progesterone treatment. At a preterm birth incidence of <3%, universal screening does not lead to a cost saving.

CONCLUSION

National universal cervical length screening should be incorporated into the routine anomaly scan in the second trimester, because it leads to a drop in the incidence of preterm birth and low birthweight babies in singleton pregnancies, thereby saving costs related to the newborn and gaining quality-adjusted life years.

Distribution of uterocervical angles of pregnant women at 16+ 0 to 23+ 6 weeks gestation with low risk for preterm birth: first vietnamese cohort of women with singleton pregnancies

BACKGROUND

Cervical length (CL) measured by ultrasound in the second trimester is a predictor of spontaneous preterm birth (sPTB). The uterocervical angle (UCA) has recently been suggested as a predictor to identify women at risk of sPTB. The aim of this study was to investigate the UCAs' distribution in singleton pregnant women at 16^+ 0 - 23^+ 6 weeks of gestation with low risk for sPTB.

METHODS

This was a prospective cohort study of 1,051 pregnant women with singleton pregnancies at low risk for preterm delivery. Pregnant women with a viable singleton fetus at 16^+ 0 - 23^+ 6 weeks of gestation were enrolled in the study conducted at the Haiphong Hospital of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Vietnam, from 09/2019 to 09/2020. CL and the UCA were assessed using transvaginal ultrasonography (TVS) by a single sonographer. Subjects were followed-up until the end of pregnancy, and maternal and neonatal outcomes were recorded. The UCAs' range and their relationship with gestational age were evaluated using regression analysis. P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant.

RESULTS

The normal range of the UCA (5^th - 95^th percentiles) was 46.47° (95% CI, 40.27°-51.81°) to 127.06° (95% CI, 123.02° - 130.71°). The UCAs in the preterm birth (< 37 weeks) and full-term groups were 117.86° ± 20.25° and 83.80° ± 24.18°, respectively (p < 0.001). Linear regression analysis showed a significant change in the UCA range from 16^+ 0 to 23^+ 6 weeks of gestation (2.51 degrees per week, p < 0.001). The linear function yielded the highest correlation coefficient in the variation rule of the UCA values (r = 0.22). A total of 42/63 (66.7%) patients with preterm birth < 37 weeks had a UCA above the 75^th percentile. The majority of women with preterm birth had a UCA ≥ 95° compared with those with full-term delivery (88.9% vs. 31.3%, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this study present background information about the normal range of UCA values in singleton pregnant women at 16^+ 0 to 23^+ 6 weeks at low risk for sPTB in this Vietnamese cohort. In this study population at low risk for sPTB, pregnant women with a UCA value ≥ 95^o were also considered at risk for preterm birth.

Identifying the Barriers to Universal Cervical Length Screening for Preterm Birth Prevention at a Tertiary Hospital in Thailand (Physician Perspectives): Implementation Research

Objective: To identify physicians’ views on the barriers to measuring cervical length for preventing preterm deliveries. Materials and methods: This prospective, descriptive implementation study had three phases. In Phase I, 20 physicians were interviewed. Phase II comprised questionnaire development and data validation. The questionnaire was distributed to 120 Phase III participants. Results and discussion: All 120 participants responded. In 44 cases, the physicians received support from their local Maternal and Child Health Boards for preterm-birth-prevention programs; the other 76 physicians did not. The doctors tended to believe that cervical length screening plays no role in preventing preterm births (4/44 (9.1%) and 24/76 (31.6%); OR, 4.615; 95% CI, 1.482–14.373; p = 0.005). They were unsure about the correct measurement procedures (13/44 (29.5%) and 37/76 (48.7%); OR, 2.262; 95% CI, 1.028–4.977; p = 0.040). A lack of cost-free drug support (progesterone) for women with short cervices was identified as a barrier to preventing preterm births (30/44 (68.2%) and 32/76 (42.1%); OR, 0.339; 95% CI, 0.155–0.741; p = 0.006). Conclusions: Many physicians are unconvinced that measuring cervical length prevents premature births, and are unsure about the correct measurement procedures. There is a lack of government funding for hormone-usage programs.

Incidentally Found Midtrimester Shortened Cervical Length: Practice Patterns among American Maternal-Fetal Medicine Specialists

OBJECTIVE

The management of incidentally found short cervical length (CL) without prior spontaneous preterm birth (PTB) can vary. While most agree on starting vaginal progesterone, management after CL shortens <10 mm varies. The purpose of this study was to elucidate current practice patterns amongst maternal-fetal medicine (MFM) specialists.

STUDY DESIGN

We conducted an online survey of MFM attending physicians and fellows in the United States from May 2019 to April 2020. The primary outcome was management of varying CL based on gestational age. Variations in management were assessed descriptively.

RESULTS

There were 236 respondents out of 400 eligible surveyed, with a response rate of 59.2%. Universal CL screening was reported by 93.6% (49.6% abdominal and 44.1% transvaginal). Management of short CL varied based on CL measurement, rather than gestational age at presentation. At CL <10 mm, management included cerclage (17.4-18.7%), vaginal progesterone (41.3-41.7%), or cerclage plus vaginal progesterone (43.4%). Between CL of 10 to 20 mm, the majority (77.4-91.9%) would start vaginal progesterone. At CL 21 to 25 mm, management varied between expectant management (45.5-48.5%) or vaginal progesterone (51.1-52.8%). Suture material used was ethylene terephthalate (47.4%) or polypropelene (31.2). Preoperative antibiotic use was reported by 22.3%, while 45.5% used them only if the amniotic membranes were exposed, and 32.2% reported no antibiotic use. Postoperative tocolytic use varied with 19.3% reporting no use, 32.6% using it always, 8.2% only after significant cervical manipulation, 22.7% after the patient is experiencing symptoms, and 17.6% using it only if the cervix is dilated on exam. After cerclage placement, 44.5% continued CL surveillance.

CONCLUSION

Substantial differences of opinion exist among MFM physicians regarding management of incidentally found short CL in patients without history of PTB. The differences in responses obtained highlight the need for evidence-based guidelines for managing this clinical scenario.

KEY POINTS

· There is lack of consensus on the management of incidentally found shortened CL.. · The purpose of this study was to elucidate current trends in CL screening and management.. · Substantial differences of opinion exist regarding management of incidentally found short CL..

Challenges in Interpreting the Ob/Gyn Literature: Studies of Screening

Screening tests are critical to patient care. Screening tests must meet ten criteria established by the World Health Organization in order to be considered effective. Common types of studies on screening tests include those that establish test characteristics, such as sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value, as well as cost-effective analyses. In this paper, we review the criteria for effective screening tests, and discuss the strengths and pitfalls of common study designs evaluating screening tests.

Cost-effectiveness of cervical length screening and progesterone treatment to prevent spontaneous preterm delivery in Sweden

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the cost-effectiveness of strategies to prevent spontaneous preterm delivery (PTD) in asymptomatic singleton pregnancies, using prevalence and healthcare cost data from the Swedish healthcare context.

METHODS

We designed a decision analytic model based on the Swedish CERVIX study to estimate the cost-effectiveness of strategies to prevent spontaneous PTD in asymptomatic women with a singleton pregnancy. The model was constructed as a combined decision-tree model and Markov model with a time horizon of 100 years. Four preventive strategies, namely 'Universal screening', 'High-risk-based screening' (i.e. screening of high-risk women only), 'Low-risk-based screening' (i.e. treatment of high-risk population and screening of remaining women) and 'Nullipara screening' (i.e. treatment of high-risk population and screening of nulliparous women only), included second-trimester cervical length (CL) screening by transvaginal ultrasound followed by vaginal progesterone treatment in the case of a short cervix. A fifth preventive strategy involved vaginal progesterone treatment of women with previous spontaneous PTD or late miscarriage but no CL screening ('No screening, treat high-risk group'). For comparison, we used a sixth strategy implying no specific intervention to prevent spontaneous PTD, reflecting the current situation in Sweden ('No screening'). Probabilities for a short cervix (CL ≤ 25 mm; base-case) and for spontaneous PTD at < 33 + 0 weeks and at 33 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks were derived from the CERVIX study, and probabilities for stillbirth, neonatal mortality and long-term morbidity (cerebral palsy) from Swedish health data registers. Costs were based on Swedish data, except costs for cerebral palsy, which were based on Danish data. We assumed that vaginal progesterone reduces spontaneous PTD before 33 weeks by 30% and spontaneous PTD at 33-36 weeks by 10% (based on the literature). All analyses were from a societal perspective. We expressed the effectiveness of each strategy as gained quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and presented cost-effectiveness as average (ACER; average cost per gained QALY compared with 'No screening') and incremental (ICER; difference in costs divided by the difference in QALYs for each of two strategies being compared) cost-effectiveness ratios. We performed deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. The results of the latter are shown as cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. Willingness-to-pay was set at a maximum of 500 000 Swedish krona (56 000 US dollars (USD)), as suggested by the Swedish National Board of Health and Welfare.

RESULTS

All interventions had better health outcomes than did 'No screening', with fewer screening-year deaths and more lifetime QALYs. The best strategy in terms of improved health outcomes was 'Low-risk-based screening', irrespective of whether screening was performed at 18 + 0 to 20 + 6 weeks (Cx1) or at 21 + 0 to 23 + 6 weeks (Cx2). 'Low-risk-based screening' at Cx1 was cost-effective, while 'Low-risk-based screening' at Cx2 entailed high costs compared with other alternatives. The ACERs were 2200 USD for 'Low-risk-based screening' at Cx1 and 36 800 USD for 'Low-risk-based screening' at Cx2. Cost-effectiveness was particularly sensitive to progesterone effectiveness and to productivity loss due to sick leave during pregnancy. The probability that 'Low-risk-based screening' at Cx1 is cost-effective compared with 'No screening' was 71%.

CONCLUSION

Interventions to prevent spontaneous PTD in asymptomatic women with a singleton pregnancy, including CL screening with progesterone treatment of cases with a short cervix, may be cost-effective in Sweden. © 2022 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Controversies in treatment practices of the mother-infant dyad at the limit of viability

In the setting of threatened extreme preterm birth, balancing maternal and fetal risks and benefits in order to choose the best available treatment options is of utmost importance. Inconsistency in treatment practices for infants born between 22 and 24 weeks of gestatotional age may account for inter-hospital variation in survival rates with and without impairment. Most importantly, non-biased and accurate information must be presented to the family as soon as extremely preterm birth is suspected, including counseling on morbidities and mortality associated with delivery at the limits of viability. This review will focus on different therapeutic medical and surgical practices available for threatened extremely preterm birth to improve fetal and maternal outcomes while highlighting the importance of patient-centered approaches.

Frequency of cerclage in consecutive pregnancies of women with history of preterm birth

BACKGROUND

Serial cervical length screening is performed in women with a history of preterm birth to determine indication for cerclage placement. Our aim is to evaluate the frequency of cerclage placement in consecutive pregnancies with preterm birth history to determine whether performing serial cervical length screening for women with a history of late (34-36 6/7 weeks) spontaneous preterm birth (SPTB) should be reconsidered.

METHODS

Retrospective evaluation of cerclage frequency and gestational age of delivery for consecutive singleton births for 69,671 women whose first birth was a SPTB.

RESULTS

History of late SPTB was associated with a lower frequency of cerclage than history of early SPTB (0.83% vs 4.88%, OR 0.16, 95% CI 0.14-0.18). Rates of recurrent SPTB were lower for women with history of late SPTB than those with history of early SPTB (13.45%, 3.74% early, 9.71% late vs 20.69%, 9.12% early, 11.57% late).

CONCLUSION

Women with a history of late PTB have a lower risk of recurrent PTB than those with a history of early PTB but constitute most of those undergoing serial cervical length screening for potential cerclage placement. Practice guidelines for screening women with a history of late PTB should be re-evaluated.

Prediction of Preterm Using Time Series Technology Based Machine Learning: Retrospective Cohort Study (Preprint)

Background

Objective

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Prediction and Prevention of Spontaneous Preterm Birth: ACOG Practice Bulletin, Number 234

Preterm birth is among the most complex and important challenges in obstetrics. Despite decades of research and clinical advancement, approximately 1 in 10 newborns in the United States is born prematurely. These newborns account for approximately three-quarters of perinatal mortality and more than one half of long-term neonatal morbidity, at significant social and economic cost (1-3). Because preterm birth is the common endpoint for multiple pathophysiologic processes, detailed classification schemes for preterm birth phenotype and etiology have been proposed (4, 5). In general, approximately one half of preterm births follow spontaneous preterm labor, about a quarter follow preterm prelabor rupture of membranes (PPROM), and the remaining quarter of preterm births are intentional, medically indicated by maternal or fetal complications. There are pronounced racial disparities in the preterm birth rate in the United States. The purpose of this document is to describe the risk factors, screening methods, and treatments for preventing spontaneous preterm birth, and to review the evidence supporting their roles in clinical practice. This Practice Bulletin has been updated to include information on increasing rates of preterm birth in the United States, disparities in preterm birth rates, and approaches to screening and prevention strategies for patients at risk for spontaneous preterm birth.

Higher estradiol levels are associated with lower neonatal birthweight after fresh and frozen embryo transfers. A cohort study of 3631 singleton IVF pregnancies

AIM

To assess the birthweight of neonates conceived after fresh and frozen embryo transfers (FET) and, if different, to investigate whether estradiol levels during the late follicular phase were associated with the observed difference.

METHODS

Singleton pregnancies from fresh and FET transfers between January 1990 and December 2013 were compared retrospectively. A total of 2885 singleton pregnancies after fresh embryo transfer and 746 after FET were analyzed. Obstetric and neonatal outcomes were compared between fresh and FET cycles.

RESULTS

The singletons born after FET were found to have a significantly higher birth weight (3313 g), compared to those born after fresh embryo transfer (3143 g); p < .001. The main predictor of this difference was found to be estradiol levels at the end of the follicular phase. The difference in birthweight was inversely correlated to estradiol levels considering all cycles together but also considering fresh and frozen cycles separately.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study demonstrates a link between high estradiol levels and low birth weight of singletons after IVF both in fresh and frozen-thawed embryo transfer cycles. It provides additional support to the involvement of hyperestrogenemia in the process of implantation and on the subsequent fetal development.

Vaginal progesterone for prevention of preterm birth in asymptomatic high-risk women with a normal cervical length: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Objective: To determine whether vaginal progesterone reduces spontaneous preterm birth (sPTB) before 37 weeks in asymptomatic high-risk women with a singleton pregnancy and normal mid-gestation cervical length.Study design: Databases were searched (from inception to December 2020) with the search terms "progesterone" and "premature birth" or "preterm birth". Studies were screened and included if they assessed vaginal progesterone compared to placebo in women with normal cervical length. Data were pooled and synthesized in a meta-analysis using a random effects model.Data sources: MEDLINE and Embase databases.Study synthesis: Following PRISMA screening guidelines, data from 1127 women across three studies were available for synthesis. All studies had low risk of bias and were of high quality. The primary outcome was sPTB <37 weeks, with secondary outcomes of sPTB <34 weeks. Vaginal progesterone did not significantly reduce sPTB before 37 weeks, or before 34 weeks with a relative risk (RR) of 0.76 (95% CI 0.37-1.55, p = .45) and 0.51 (95% CI 0.12-2.13, p = .35), respectively.Conclusions: Vaginal progesterone does not decrease the risk of sPTB in high-risk singleton pregnancies with a normal mid-gestation cervical length.

Cervical Assessment for Predicting Preterm Birth-Cervical Length and Beyond

Preterm birth is considered one of the main etiologies of neonatal death, as well as short- and long-term disability worldwide. A number of pathophysiological processes take place in the final unifying factor of cervical modifications that leads to preterm birth. In women at high risk for preterm birth, cervical assessment is commonly used for prediction and further risk stratification. This review outlines the rationale for cervical length screening for preterm birth prediction in different clinical settings within existing and evolving new technologies to assess cervical remodeling.

Prediction of preterm birth: the role cervical assessment by ultrasound and cervico-vaginal biomarkers

Preterm delivery (PTB) is one of the most common and serious complications of pregnancy. PTB accounts for approximately 70% of neonatal deaths and is a major cause of neonatal morbidity including respiratory distress syndrome, necrotising enterocolitis and long-term neurological disabilities. Prevention of PTB and its complications include identification among symptomatic women those at high risk of immediate delivery requiring prenatal corticosteroids administration. Transvaginal ultrasonographic evaluation of the cervical length (CL) is predictive of PTB and a value 15 mm identifies among symptomatic women approximately 70% of women who will deliver within one week. In the range of CL within 15 and 30 mm biomarkers n cervical-vaginal fluids (fetal fibronectin, phosphorylated insulin-like growth factor protein-1, placental alpha-microglobulin-, cytokines) and other ultrasonographic cervical variables (posterior cervical angle, elastography) improve the identification of women at risk, In asymptomatic women CL can be applied as screening and has been proposed as a universal screening during the second trimester in singleton gestations. The finding of a CL25mm is associated with an increased risk of subsequent PTB with a sensitivity between 30 and 60% that is improved with the combination of biomarkers. Asymptomatic women with a CL 25mm should be offered vaginal progesterone treatment for the prevention of preterm birth and neonatal morbidity. The role of cerclage and pessary is still controversial. In this review we discuss the evidence-based role of ultrasonographic cervical assessment and cervicovaginal biomarkers in the prediction of PTB in symptomatic and asymptomatic women

Preterm Birth Prevention in Appalachian Kentucky: Understanding Barriers and Facilitators Related to Transvaginal Ultrasound Cervical Length Surveillance Among Prenatal Care Providers

Background: Appalachian Kentucky has higher-than-average rates of preterm birth (PTB)-a health disparity associated with increased maternal and fetal/neonatal morbidity and neonatal mortality. Transvaginal ultrasound (TVU) cervical length measurement is the best predictor of PTB risk, but is underutilized in Appalachia. This study explores prenatal care providers' TVU-related knowledge and practices, and identifies barriers and facilitators, which impact the adoption of this evidence-based technology. Materials and Methods: This study recruited providers from three Appalachian Kentucky health care sites. Prenatal care providers took part in semistructured interviews and completed brief survey scales. Questions focused on PTB knowledge, TVU-related barriers, and suggestions for clinician and/or patient-focused interventions. Transcripts were coded using a multistage process based in grounded theory. Descriptive statistics were calculated. Results: Eleven physicians, one nurse practitioner, one physician assistant, and one midwife completed interviews. Average participant age was 44 years with 17 years in practice; 43% of providers were female. Practitioners described the sociodemographic characteristics, health behaviors (e.g., smoking, opioid abuse), and comorbid conditions (e.g., obesity, hypertension, and diabetes) endemic in Appalachia that heightened their patients' PTB risk. TVU use was reported as important by all respondents, but not all were satisfied with their level of training. The most commonly identified barriers to TVU were patient access to transportation and social support. Participants stressed a need for changing community perceptions regarding consequences of PTB. Conclusions: Providers identified multiple TVU-related barriers and facilitators. These data will inform the design of a multifaceted dissemination and implementation strategy targeting PTB prevention in Appalachia.

Comparison of management options for twin pregnancies with cervical shortening

Objective: To compare the effectiveness of expectant management (EM), cervical cerclage (CC) and vaginal progesterone (VP) in decreasing the rate of spontaneous preterm birth in twin gestations with midtrimester cervical shortening.Study design: This is a retrospective cohort study comparing pregnancy outcomes of twin gestations with midtrimester cervical shortening, defined as a cervical length (CL) on routine transvaginal ultrasound between 15 weeks 0 days and 24 weeks 6 days gestation of <2.5 cm, managed with either EM, CC or VP. Women were categorized by final management strategy. Primary outcome was gestational age at delivery. Secondary outcomes included latency period (defined as number of weeks between a diagnosis of cervical shortening and delivery), gestational age at delivery <32 weeks, mode of delivery, perinatal death, neonatal birthweight and rate of chorioamnionitis. Subanalysis of women with a CL < 1.5 cm was also performed. Logistic regression was used to identify predictors of delivery <32 weeks, controlling for potential confounders.Results: Between January 2006 and July 2016, 64 pairs of twins with midtrimester cervical shortening were identified, 18 managed with EM (28.1%), 29 CC (45.3%), and 17 VP (26.6%), 52 of which had information regarding delivery outcomes. 90.4% of women delivered prematurely (<37 weeks). Women in the CC group were diagnosed with cervical shortening at a significantly earlier mean gestational age (CC 20.6 ± 1.7 weeks versus EM 22.2 ± 2.9 weeks and VP 22.2 ± 2.0 weeks, p = .02) and had a shorter mean cervical length at the time of diagnosis (CC 1.18 ± 0.7 cm vs. EM 1.56 ± 0.7 and VP 1.95 ± 0.6, p = .002), as compared to those in the EM and VP groups. There was no difference in gestational age at delivery (EM 30.9 ± 5.2 weeks, CC 30.4 ± 4.9 weeks and VP 32.4 ± 4.1 weeks, respectively) or any of the secondary outcomes listed above. Women with a CL <1.5 cm delivered significantly earlier than those with a cervical length ≥1.5 cm (28.4 ± 4.7 weeks vs. 33.2 ± 3.6 weeks, p = .0001). After adjusting for potential confounders, cervical length <1.5 cm, not the management strategy, was the predictor of PTB before 32 weeks in this twin population [AOR 6.56 (95% CI 1.78, 24.20), p = .005].Conclusion: Twin pregnancies with midtrimester cervical shortening are at high risk for preterm delivery, and outcomes were similar regardless of management strategy. Large prospective trials are needed to evaluate the effect of different management strategies for cervical shortening in twins.

Prediction of time of delivery using cervical length measurement in women with threatened preterm labor

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the use of transvaginal (TV) sonographic cervical length (CL) measurement alone in predicting time of delivery in women who present in threatened preterm labor.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study at Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital of all women who presented between 22 weeks and 0 days and 35 weeks and six-day gestation in threatened preterm labor and were admitted for ongoing management including a TV sonographic CL measure. The accuracy of CL for predicting time of delivery was compared between women with a short cervix (CL  < 25 mm) and those with a normal cervix (CL ≥25 mm). The predictive accuracy of CL for spontaneous preterm delivery was analyzed with different outcome-specific thresholds.

RESULTS

One hundred and forty-six women with threatened preterm labor met the inclusion criteria; of which 74 (50.7%) had a short cervix and 72 (49.3%) had a normal cervix. The group with short cervix were more likely to deliver prematurely before 37-week gestation, as well as a shorter time interval between initial presentation and delivery and delivery within 14 days from presentation (p = .0002, p = .0001, and p = .0001, respectively). Similarly, with respect to the area under the receiver operator characteristic curves, CL measurement was found to be significant for time of delivery before or after 37 weeks (p < .0001), preterm delivery before 34 (p =  .0003) and 31 (p <  .0001) weeks; and preterm delivery within 14 days from presentation (p < .0001). Cervical length measurement has a high negative predictive value ranging from 94.9 to 97.1% depending on the different CL threshold used.

CONCLUSIONS

Cervical length measurement at the time of presentation was significantly associated with the risk of preterm delivery in women presenting with threatened preterm labor and a short cervix. Cervical length measurement was also helpful in predicting time of delivery within 14 days from presentation. The negative predictive value and predictive accuracy of CL as a single measure were of significance.

Cervical Pessary Compared With Vaginal Progesterone for Preventing Early Preterm Birth: A Randomized Controlled Trial

OBJECTIVE

To compare the effectiveness of a cervical pessary and vaginal progesterone to prevent spontaneous preterm births in pregnant women with cervical lengths 25 mm or less as measured by transvaginal ultrasonography.

METHODS

This was a multicenter, open-label, randomized, noninferiority trial. Women with singleton pregnancies and a short cervix (25 mm or less) measured transvaginally at the second-trimester ultrasonogram were invited to participate. They were computer-randomized (one to one) into cervical pessary placement or treatment with vaginal progesterone (200 mg/24 hours). The primary outcome was spontaneous preterm delivery before 34 weeks of gestation. The noninferiority margin was set at 4% with a 0.025 one-sided α level and a statistical power of 80%. That is, if the 95% CI upper bound exceeded 4%, the pessary could not be deemed noninferior. A sample size of 254 women was required to show noninferiority of the pessary to progesterone.

RESULTS

The trial was conducted from August 2012 to April 2016 with the participation of 27 Spanish hospitals. A total of 254 patients were enrolled and 246 included in the intention-to-treat analysis. Demographic and baseline characteristics were similar across groups. The rate of spontaneous delivery before 34 weeks of gestation was 14% (n=18/127) in the pessary group and 14% (n=17/119) in the progesterone group with a risk difference of -0.11% (95% CI -8.85% to 8.62%; P=.99), that is, noninferiority was not shown for the pessary. The incidence of increased vaginal discharge (87% vs 71%, P=.002) and discomfort (27% vs 3%, P<.001) was significantly higher in the pessary group.

CONCLUSION

A cervical pessary was not noninferior to vaginal progesterone for preventing spontaneous birth before 34 weeks of gestation in pregnant women with short cervixes.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

EU Clinical Trials Register, 2012-000241-13; ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01643980.

Monitoring caesarean births using the Robson ten group classification system: A cross-sectional survey of private for-profit facilities in urban Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

Globally, Caesarean section (CS) rates are mounting and currently exceed the safe upper limit of 15%. Monitoring CS rates using clinical indications and obstetric sub-group analysis could confirm that women in need have been served. In Bangladesh, the reported CS rate was 31% in 2016, and almost twice that rate in urban settings. Delivering in the private healthcare sector was a strong determinant. This study uses Robson Ten Group Classification System (TGCS) to report CS rates in urban Bangladesh. The clinical causes and determining factors for CS births have also been examined.

METHODS

This record linkage cross-sectional survey was undertaken in 34 urban for-profit private hospitals having CS facilities during the period June to August 2015. Data were supplied by inpatient case records and operation theatre registers. Descriptive analyses were performed to calculate the relative size of each group; the group-specific CS rate, and group contribution to total CS and overall CS rate. CS indications were grouped into eleven categories using ICD 10 codes. Binary logistic regression was performed to explore the determinants of CS.

RESULTS

Out of 1307 births, delivery by CS occurred in 1077 (82%). Three obstetric groups contributed the most to overall CS rate: previous CS (24%), preterm (23%) and term elective groups (22%). The major clinical indications for CS were previous CS (35%), prolonged and obstructed labor (15%), fetal distress (11%) and amniotic fluid disorder (11%). Multiple gestation, non-cephalic presentation, previous bad obstetric history were positive predictors while oxytocin used for labour induction and increased parity were negative predictors of CS.

CONCLUSIONS

As the first ever study in urban private for-profit health facilities in Bangladesh, this study usefully identifies the burden of CS and where to intervene. Engagement of multiple stakeholders including the private sector is crucial in planning effective strategies for safe reduction of CS.

Use of gestational surrogates for women with Eisenmenger syndrome: a cost-effectiveness analysis

Objective: Eisenmenger syndrome (ES) is regarded as a contraindication to pregnancy, with therapeutic abortion recommended in the event of unintended pregnancy. However, women with ES continue to desire and attempt pregnancy despite grave risks to their own health. This study compares the costs and outcomes of pregnancy in women with ES to the use of gestational surrogates in their pregnancies.Study design: A decision-analytic model was built using TreeAge software that compared use of gestational surrogates and pregnancy in women with ES. Maternal death and neonatal outcomes including intrauterine fetal demise, preterm birth, cerebral palsy, and death were assessed. All probabilities and costs were derived from the literature. Utilities were discounted at a rate of 3% across the expected lifespan to generate quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Univariate and multivariate sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate the robustness of the model given changes in baseline assumptions.Results: In a theoretical cohort of 1000 women with ES, pregnancy would result in 360 maternal deaths, 100 stillbirths, 477 preterm births, and 157 neonatal deaths . In these highly desired pregnancies, use of gestational surrogates would prevent 99 and 98% of maternal and neonatal death, respectively. Cases and costs of preterm birth and associated cerebral palsy are also significantly reduced. Use of a gestational surrogate would save $518,255 per woman with a gain of 6.77 QALYs, a dominant strategy. The approach is cost-effective up to a cost of surrogacy of $1.2 million and even if the surrogate achieves pregnancy only 30% of the time.Conclusions: The use of surrogate mothers for those with ES is cost-effective and results in significantly improved maternal and neonatal outcomes. These benefits are robust in the face of high surrogacy costs largely due to the marked reduction in maternal mortality and preterm birth. These findings should be used to underscore the importance of broadening health care financing for medically-indicated assisted reproduction.

Threatened preterm birth: Validation of a nomogram to predict the individual risk of very preterm delivery in a secondary care center

INTRODUCTION

Very preterm delivery (22-32 weeks of gestation) remains a major cause of neonatal morbidity and mortality. The objective of this study was to validate a statistical model allowing to predict the risk of preterm delivery to use as a clinical decision-making tool for in utero transfer from a secondary to a tertiary care center.

METHODS

Retrospective observational study in a secondary care center (approximately 2500 births) in Paris, France. 137 women were admitted for threatened preterm delivery between 22 and 32 weeks. Women were retrospectively allocated to the following groups based on medical decision: "transfer group" (in utero transfer to a tertiary care unit) and "no transfer group" (no in utero transfer). The risk of preterm delivery within 48 h and before 32 weeks gestation was assessed for each group using a nomogram previously validated in a tertiary care center. The primary objective of the study was to determine the accuracy of the prediction model.

RESULTS

The discrimination and calibration of the nomogram were excellent (preterm delivery risk within 48 h, ROC AUC: 0.98, 95% CI: 0.95-1.00; probability of preterm delivery before 32 weeks gestation, ROC AUC: 0.94, 95% CI: 0.89-0.99). A threshold set at 0.16 helped minimize the risk of unnecessary in utero transfers with an excellent negative predictive value of 0.99.

CONCLUSIONS

We validated nomograms to predict the individual probability of preterm birth after admission in a secondary care center. Those nomograms could be helpful when making decisions regarding an in utero transfer to a tertiary care unit.

Universal cervical length screening with a cervicometer to prevent preterm birth <34 weeks: a decision and economic analysis

Background: Preterm birth is a leading cause of neonatal morbidity and mortality worldwide; evidence-based strategies to decrease preterm birth are desperately needed.Objective: The purpose of this study was to estimate which of three strategies for screening for shortened cervix in asymptomatic low-risk women is the most cost-effective in terms of prevention of preterm birth and associated morbidity.Study design: A decision analysis model was developed from available published evidence comparing three strategies in screening asymptomatic low-risk women for shortened cervix: (1) cervicometer with subsequent referral for transvaginal ultrasound, (2) transvaginal ultrasound screening, and (3) no screening. The cost and effectiveness of each strategy was assessed in terms of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and cost in US dollars.Results: Screening with a cervicometer with referral was the most cost-effective strategy and represented a savings of $999.65 ($11,617.28 versus $12,616.93) over screening with ultrasound, and a savings of $15,601.62 ($11,617.28 versus $27,218.90) over no screening. Costs for outcomes ranged from $3528 for a healthy neonate ≥34 weeks to $717,467.5 for a neonate <34 weeks with severe morbidity. The cervicometer strategy avoided 11.68 neonatal deaths per 1000 deliveries (3.59 deaths versus 15.27 deaths) compared with no screening, and avoided 0.73 neonatal deaths per 1000 deliveries (3.59 deaths versus 4.32 deaths) compared with ultrasound strategy. The cervicometer strategy prevented 82.44 preterm births per 1000 deliveries (22.56 versus 105.00) compared with no screening, and 5.10 preterm births per 1000 deliveries (22.56 versus 27.66) compared with ultrasound strategy. Per QALY, cervicometer screening cost $386.57, transvaginal ultrasound cost $420.31, and no screening cost $922.73. Sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of these findings, including evaluation across the range of quoted transvaginal ultrasound costs ($43-$300).Conclusion: A simulation of universal screening of asymptomatic low-risk women with a cervicometer with subsequent referral for ultrasound for those with a cervix <25 mm is cost-effective and yields the greatest reduction in preterm births at <34 weeks. A risk simulation trial noted that a cervicometer strategy may be more expensive than a universal transvaginal ultrasound strategy, but both are less expensive than a no screening strategy.

Temporal trends in neonatal mortality and morbidity following spontaneous and clinician-initiated preterm birth in Washington State, USA: a population-based study

OBJECTIVE

After a decade of increase, the preterm birth (PTB) rate has declined in the USA since 2006, with the largest decline at late preterm (34-36 weeks). We described concomitant changes in gestational age-specific rates of neonatal mortality and morbidity following spontaneous and clinician-initiated PTB among singleton infants.

DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

This retrospective population-based study included 754 763 singleton births in Washington State, USA, 2004-2013, using data from birth certificates and hospitalisation records. PTB subtypes included preterm premature rupture of membranes (PPROM), spontaneous onset of labour and clinician-initiated delivery.

OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcomes were neonatal mortality and a composite outcome including death or severe neonatal morbidity. Temporal trends in the outcomes and individual morbidities were assessed by PTB subtype. Logistic regression yielded adjusted odds ratios (AOR) per 1 year change in outcome and 95% CI.

RESULTS

The rate of PTB following PPROM and spontaneous labour declined, while clinician-initiated PTB increased (all p<0.01). Overall neonatal mortality remained unchanged (1.3%; AOR 0.99, CI 0.95 to 1.02), though gestational age-specific mortality following clinician-initiated PTB declined at 32-33 weeks (AOR 0.85, CI 0.74 to 0.97) and increased at 34-36 weeks (AOR 1.10, CI 1.01 to 1.20). The overall rate of the composite outcome increased (from 7.9% to 11.9%; AOR 1.06, CI 1.05 to 1.08). Among late preterm infants, combined mortality or severe morbidity increased following PPROM (AOR 1.13, CI 1.08 to 1.18), spontaneous labour (AOR 1.09, CI 1.06 to 1.13) and clinician-initiated delivery (AOR 1.10, CI 1.07 to 1.13). Neonatal sepsis rates increased among all preterm infants (AOR 1.09, CI 1.08 to 1.11).

CONCLUSIONS

Timing of obstetric interventions is associated with infant health outcomes at preterm. The temporal decline in late PTB among singleton infants was associated with increased mortality among late preterm infants born following clinician-initiated delivery and increased combined mortality or severe morbidity among all late preterm infants, mainly due to increased rate of sepsis.

Prior Uterine Evacuation and the Risk of Short Cervical Length: A Retrospective Cohort Study

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether a prior uterine evacuation procedure is associated with an increased risk of short cervical length (≤20 mm) in women without prior spontaneous preterm birth.

METHODS

This work was a retrospective cohort study from January 2012 to December 2014 of singletons without prior spontaneous preterm birth with cervical length screening between 18 weeks and 23 weeks 6 days. Women with a prior miscarriage/abortion were excluded if management (medical, surgical, or expectant) was not specified. Prior uterine evacuation was defined as dilation and curettage or dilation and evacuation of a spontaneous or induced abortion. The primary outcome was the risk of short cervical length (≤20 mm) among women with and without 1 of more prior uterine evacuations at any gestational age, assessed by the odds ratio and adjusted odds ratio for confounders.

RESULTS

Of 2672 women included, 714 (27%) had at least 1 prior uterine evacuation. The overall incidence of short cervical length in the cohort was 1% (n = 27). Women with at least 1 prior uterine evacuation were more likely to be African American (64% versus 41%; P < .001), smoke (14% versus 8%; P < .001), have a higher body mass index (mean ± SD, 28.1 ± 7.1 versus 26.8 ± 7.1 kg/m² ; P < .001), and have had prior full-term delivery (60% versus 41%; P < .001). Women with at least 1 prior uterine evacuation had a significantly higher incidence of short cervical length (2% versus 0.7%; P = .003; odds ratio, 2.99 [95% confidence interval, 1.40-6.40]). After adjustment for confounders, prior uterine evacuation remained a source of increased risk of short cervical length (adjusted odds ratio, 2.63 [95% confidence interval, 1.19-5.80]).

CONCLUSIONS

Although the overall incidence of short cervical length is low (1%-2%), women with at least 1 prior uterine evacuation have at least a 2-fold increased risk of a short second-trimester cervical length compared to women without a prior uterine evacuation.

Vaginal progesterone is as effective as cervical cerclage to prevent preterm birth in women with a singleton gestation, previous spontaneous preterm birth, and a short cervix: updated indirect comparison meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

An indirect comparison meta-analysis published in 2013 reported that both vaginal progesterone and cerclage are equally efficacious for preventing preterm birth and adverse perinatal outcomes in women with a singleton gestation, previous spontaneous preterm birth, and a sonographic short cervix. The efficacy of vaginal progesterone has been challenged after publication of the OPPTIMUM study. However, this has been resolved by an individual patient-data meta-analysis (Am J Obstet Gynecol. 2018;218:161-180).

OBJECTIVE

To compare the efficacy of vaginal progesterone and cerclage in preventing preterm birth and adverse perinatal outcomes in women with a singleton gestation, previous spontaneous preterm birth, and a midtrimester sonographic short cervix.

DATA SOURCES

MEDLINE, EMBASE, LILACS, and CINAHL (from their inception to March 2018); Cochrane databases, bibliographies, and conference proceedings.

STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Randomized controlled trials comparing vaginal progesterone to placebo/no treatment or cerclage to no cerclage in women with a singleton gestation, previous spontaneous preterm birth, and a sonographic cervical length <25 mm.

STUDY APPRAISAL AND SYNTHESIS METHODS

Updated systematic review and adjusted indirect comparison meta-analysis of vaginal progesterone vs cerclage using placebo/no cerclage as the common comparator. The primary outcomes were preterm birth <35 weeks of gestation and perinatal mortality. Pooled relative risks (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals were calculated.

RESULTS

Five trials comparing vaginal progesterone vs placebo (265 women) and 5 comparing cerclage vs no cerclage (504 women) were included. Vaginal progesterone, compared to placebo, significantly reduced the risk of preterm birth <35 and <32 weeks of gestation, composite perinatal morbidity/mortality, neonatal sepsis, composite neonatal morbidity, and admission to the neonatal intensive care unit (RRs from 0.29 to 0.68). Cerclage, compared to no cerclage, significantly decreased the risk of preterm birth <37, <35, <32, and <28 weeks of gestation, composite perinatal morbidity/mortality, and birthweight <1500 g (RRs from 0.64 to 0.70). Adjusted indirect comparison meta-analyses did not show statistically significant differences between vaginal progesterone and cerclage in the reduction of preterm birth or adverse perinatal outcomes.

CONCLUSION

Vaginal progesterone and cerclage are equally effective for preventing preterm birth and improving perinatal outcomes in women with a singleton gestation, previous spontaneous preterm birth, and a midtrimester sonographic short cervix. The choice of treatment will depend on adverse events and cost-effectiveness of interventions and patient/physician's preferences.

Risk Factors for Adverse Fetal Outcome in Hemodialysis Pregnant Women

Introduction

Pregnancy in women on dialysis is associated with a higher risk of adverse events, and the best care for this population remains to be established.

Methods

In this series, we aimed to identify factors associated with the risk of adverse fetal outcomes among 93 pregnancies in women on hemodialysis. Dialysis dose was initially assigned according to the presence of residual diuresis, body weight, and years on dialysis. Subsequent adjustments on dialysis dose were performed according to several parameters.

Results

The overall successful delivery rate was 89.2%, with a dialysis regimen of 2.6 ± 0.7 h/d, 15.4 ± 4.0 h/wk, and mean weekly standard urea Kt/V of 3.3 ± 0.6. In the logistic models, preeclampsia, lupus, primigravida, and average midweek blood urea nitrogen (BUN) level were positively related to the risk of a composite outcome of perinatal death or extreme prematurity, whereas polyhydramnios was inversely related to it. In multivariable linear regression, preeclampsia, polyhydramnios, primigravida, average midweek BUN, and residual diuresis remained significantly and independently related to fetal weight, which is a surrogate marker of fetal outcome. An average midweek BUN of 35 mg/dl was the best value for discriminating the composite outcome, and BUN ≥35 mg/dl was associated with a significant difference in a Kaplan-Meier curve (P = 0.01).

Conclusion

Our results showed that a good fetal outcome could be reached and that preeclampsia, lupus, primigravida, residual diuresis, polyhydramnios, and hemodialysis dose were important variables associated with this outcome. In addition, we suggested that a midweek BUN <35 mg/dl might be used as a target for adjusting dialysis dose until hard data were generated.

Routine second trimester cervical length screening in low risk women identified women at risk of a 'very' preterm birth but did not reduce the preterm birth rate: a randomised study from India

Women (n = 300) at 'low risk' for a preterm birth (PTB), a singleton pregnancy and for a 16-24 week period of gestation (POG) were randomised to undergo cervical length (CL) measurement by transvaginal sonography (TVS) or not. The aim was to see if routine CL measurement and treatment of a short CL reduced the PTB rate. 'Low risk' was defined by an absence of a prior abortion or PTB of a singleton infant (>16 to <37 weeks) due to a spontaneous preterm labour (PTL) or a preterm pre-labour rupture of membranes (pPROM). The PTB rate was similar in the screened and unscreened group (10.3 and 8%, respectively, p = .433). In the screened group, women who delivered at 'term' or 'moderate to late' preterm (32 to <37 weeks) had a significantly higher mean CL (3.46 ± 0.41 and 3.48 ± 0.65 cm, respectively) than the women who delivered 'very' preterm (28 to 31 + 6 weeks; 2.05 ± 0.5 cm; p = .01). A short CL ≤2.5 cm was observed in two primigravidas (2/147 or 1.3%). They delivered at 28 + 3 and 30 + 6 weeks POG, respectively, despite treatment with vaginal progesterone and rescue cerclage in one. Their neonates were discharged in a good condition. In our low risk cohort, a routine second trimester CL measurement did not reduce the overall PTB rate. However, it identified two primigravidas at risk of having a 'very' PTB.Clinical Trials Registry (CTRI), India: Registration number CTRI/2016/01/010438 Impact statement What is already known on this subject? In women with a singleton pregnancy who are at a 'low risk' for preterm birth (PTB), a short cervical length (CL) at mid trimester measured by transvaginal sonography (TVS) identifies those at risk for a PTB. This risk may be reduced by the treatment with vaginal progesterone. At present, though evidence in favour of CL measurement in low-risk women exists, it is not established as a part of antenatal care. What do the results of this study add? A routine second trimester CL measurement in low risk women did not reduce the PTB rate. However, screening for a short CL helped to identify two primigravidas at risk for a 'very' PTB. It may be possible that detection and treatment of a short CL averted an 'extremely' PTB (<28 weeks) in these two women. What are the implications of these findings for clinical practice and/or further research? Future studies should assess the outcome of women with a short mid-trimester CL to see whether its treatment resulted in pregnancy prolongation and an improved neonatal outcome.

Vaginal progesterone for preventing preterm birth and adverse perinatal outcomes in singleton gestations with a short cervix: a meta-analysis of individual patient data

BACKGROUND

The efficacy of vaginal progesterone for preventing preterm birth and adverse perinatal outcomes in singleton gestations with a short cervix has been questioned after publication of the OPPTIMUM study.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether vaginal progesterone prevents preterm birth and improves perinatal outcomes in asymptomatic women with a singleton gestation and a midtrimester sonographic short cervix.

STUDY DESIGN

We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, LILACS, and CINAHL (from their inception to September 2017); Cochrane databases; bibliographies; and conference proceedings for randomized controlled trials comparing vaginal progesterone vs placebo/no treatment in women with a singleton gestation and a midtrimester sonographic cervical length ≤25 mm. This was a systematic review and meta-analysis of individual patient data. The primary outcome was preterm birth <33 weeks of gestation. Secondary outcomes included adverse perinatal outcomes and neurodevelopmental and health outcomes at 2 years of age. Individual patient data were analyzed using a 2-stage approach. Pooled relative risks with 95% confidence intervals were calculated. Quality of evidence was assessed using the GRADE methodology.

RESULTS

Data were available from 974 women (498 allocated to vaginal progesterone, 476 allocated to placebo) with a cervical length ≤25 mm participating in 5 high-quality trials. Vaginal progesterone was associated with a significant reduction in the risk of preterm birth <33 weeks of gestation (relative risk, 0.62; 95% confidence interval, 0.47-0.81; P = .0006; high-quality evidence). Moreover, vaginal progesterone significantly decreased the risk of preterm birth <36, <35, <34, <32, <30, and <28 weeks of gestation; spontaneous preterm birth <33 and <34 weeks of gestation; respiratory distress syndrome; composite neonatal morbidity and mortality; birthweight <1500 and <2500 g; and admission to the neonatal intensive care unit (relative risks from 0.47-0.82; high-quality evidence for all). There were 7 (1.4%) neonatal deaths in the vaginal progesterone group and 15 (3.2%) in the placebo group (relative risk, 0.44; 95% confidence interval, 0.18-1.07; P = .07; low-quality evidence). Maternal adverse events, congenital anomalies, and adverse neurodevelopmental and health outcomes at 2 years of age did not differ between groups.

CONCLUSION

Vaginal progesterone decreases the risk of preterm birth and improves perinatal outcomes in singleton gestations with a midtrimester sonographic short cervix, without any demonstrable deleterious effects on childhood neurodevelopment.

Assessment of Transvaginal Ultrasound Cervical Length Image Quality

OBJECTIVE

To use data from the Cervical Length Education and Review program to evaluate the quality of transvaginal cervical length ultrasonography by trained imagers (ie, ultrasonographers, radiologists, perinatologists).

METHODS

This is a retrospective observational study of data from the Cervical Length Education and Review program. Candidates underwent an online lecture series, examination, and submitted a batch of images for review. For a candidate's batch of images to pass, all images must meet at least seven of the nine criteria assessed, the overall batch score needs to be 80% or greater, correct caliper placement must be met for all images, and the same criterion cannot be consistently missed. We also examined a subset of these criteria-appropriate image acquisitions, defined as an image that demonstrated both internal and external os and visualization of the entire endocervical canal. Primary outcome was the overall initial candidate pass rate; secondary outcomes included distribution of criteria missed in images and percentage of images that was inadequately acquired.

RESULTS

Six hundred eighty-seven candidates submitted 3,748 images between June 10, 2012, and August 18, 2016. Eighty-five percent of candidates were ultrasonographers. Of the 687 initial batches submitted, 105 (15%) did not pass. Eight hundred thirty-seven images (22%) of all images failed at least one criterion; the most common image deficiencies were in "anterior width of cervix equals the posterior width" (33%), "failure to visualize" the internal or external os (29%), "cervix occupies 75% of image and bladder area visible" (33%), and incorrect caliper placement (24%). Two hundred fifty-six (7%) of all images failed to meet our criteria for adequate image acquisition.

CONCLUSION

Fifteen percent of trained imagers failed to obtain appropriate cervical length imaging. This highlights the importance of a standardized cervical length training and certification program.

Can Transabdominal Scan Predict a Short Cervix by Transvaginal Scan?

Background. To determine whether transabdominal screening can be used to screen women with short cervix on transvaginal scan. Methods. The study was done between 18 and 20 weeks of gestation. Transabdominal scan was done and cervical length was measured. Transvaginal scan was also done and cervical length was measured. An attempt was made to find out whether transabdominal scan be used to predict a cervical length of 25 mm by transvaginal scan. Results. In our study the cut-off for transabdominal scan for detecting a short cervix of 25 mm by transvaginal scan was 29 mm. A transabdominal cervical length of 29 mm could predict a short cervix of 25 mm by transvaginal scan by 100% sensitivity and 92.4% sensitivity. Conclusion. A cut-off of 29 mm by transabdominal scan is very accurate in predicting a short cervix of 25 mm by transvaginal scan.

Applying Precision Public Health to Prevent Preterm Birth

Preterm birth (PTB) is one of the major health-care challenges of our time. Being born too early is associated with major risks to the child with potential for serious consequences in terms of life-long disability and health-care costs. Discovering how to prevent PTB needs to be one of our greatest priorities. Recent advances have provided hope that a percentage of cases known to be related to risk factors may be amenable to prevention; but the majority of cases remain of unknown cause, and there is little chance of prevention. Applying the principle of precision public health may offer opportunities previously unavailable. Presented in this article are ideas that may improve our abilities in the fields of studying the effects of migration and of populations in transition, public health programs, tobacco control, routine measurement of length of the cervix in mid-pregnancy by ultrasound imaging, prevention of non-medically indicated late PTB, identification of pregnant women for whom treatment of vaginal infection may be of benefit, and screening by genetics and other “omics.” Opening new research in these fields, and viewing these clinical problems through a prism of precision public health, may produce benefits that will affect the lives of large numbers of people.

Implementing universal cervical length screening in asymptomatic women with singleton pregnancies: challenges and opportunities

Cervical length (CL) screening has been successfully utilised to identify asymptomatic women, with a singleton pregnancy, at risk of preterm birth (PTB), thereby providing an opportunity to offer interventions that may reduce that risk. Cervical length screening with ultrasound is most effectively performed with a transvaginal approach. Universal cervical length screening, encompassing all singleton pregnancies rather than restricting screening to those considered at increased risk of PTB, is currently not widely used, despite a growing body of evidence in support of its utility for PTB prevention. There are a number of barriers that may prevent or restrict the implementation of a universal CL screening program. These include cost, availability of vaginal progesterone and other treatment options, reluctance of women to undergo transvaginal ultrasound and the perceptions and beliefs of medical practitioners. Given that mid-pregnancy CL measurement is a recognised predictor of spontaneous PTB, that most cases of PTB occur with no prior maternal history and that there are interventions available that may reduce the risk of PTB, we believe there is a clear role for routine CL screening to be adopted as a component of the fetal morphology ultrasound examination. As a strategy to reduce PTB rates, discussion and counselling about PTB prevention and CL screening should be adopted as a core element of prenatal care.

Transabdominal ultrasound is appropriate

Preterm birth remains a major cause of perinatal morbidity and mortality. A short cervix is strongly associated with spontaneous preterm birth. Professional organizations support cervical length screening for singleton gestations with a prior spontaneous preterm birth and second-trimester cervical length measurements between 16-24 weeks. All interventions used to decrease the risk of preterm birth in women with a short cervix are based on clinical trials that used transvaginal cervical length measurement, but transabdominal ultrasound has been shown to correlate well with transvaginal measurement in some observational studies. Transvaginal cervical length measurement is more accurate and more reliably obtained than the transabdominal approach. Conversely, transabdominal ultrasound could have the advantage of ease of implementation and, in general, is perceived by patients to be associated with less discomfort. Currently, there is no randomized clinical study that compares head-to-head the effectiveness of transvaginal vs transabdominal ultrasound for preterm birth risk screening. This point/counterpoint article summarizes the pros and cons of the 2 ultrasound approaches and debates whether transvaginal ultrasound should be used exclusively or if transabdominal ultrasound can be incorporated in cervical length screening for prevention of preterm birth.

[Is universal screening for cervical length among singleton pregnancies with no history of preterm birth justified?]

The ultrasonographic measurement of cervical length with a cutoff of 15mm is currently the best method to identify a group of asymptomatic women in the general population at risk of spontaneous preterm birth, especially among asymptomatic patients with a singleton pregnancy with no history of preterm birth. Cerclage and 17 alpha-hydroxyprogesterone caproate (17OHP-C) are ineffective to reduce the risk of preterm birth among asymptomatic patients with a short cervix in midtrimester. However, vaginal progesterone (200-mg capsules of micronized progesterone or gel containing 90mg progesterone) has been demonstrated effective in 2 large randomized trials to reduce the risk of preterm birth and possibly the composite morbidity and perinatal mortality associated among asymptomatic women with a short cervix in the general population screened by ultrasound of the cervix in midtrimester. Three cost-effectiveness analyses are converging to show that universal screening for cervical length with vaginal progesterone treatment seems to be cost-effective compared with no screening. However, it is too early to definitively conclude that universal screening is justified for several reasons: many women must be screened to prevent a relatively small number of preterm births. Moreover, the epidemiology of preterm delivery is such that the use of progesterone in asymptomatic women with a short cervix screened by ultrasound in midtrimester in the general population will not significantly reduce the prevalence of preterm births; there are no data comparing the effectiveness of universal ultrasound screening followed by vaginal progesterone treatment in case of short cervix versus no universal screening associated to a progesterone treatment in case of incidentally observed short cervix; the universal ultrasound screening may not produce the same results in practice than those observed in published randomized trials, due to population differences, "indication creep", or "stretching of the cutoff" defining the short cervix. Moreover, the implementation of unevaluated or not recommended treatments, such as bed rest, tocolytics, 17OHP-C or cerclage, can potentially cause unintended deleterious consequences and reduce the cost-effectiveness; the cost-effectiveness analyses evaluating universal screening for cervical length present uncertainties on critical variables, notably the short cervix prevalence and the progesterone efficacy. In conclusion, although the implementation of such a screening strategy can be considered by individual practitioners, this screening cannot be universally mandated.

Not transabdominal!

Preterm birth remains a major cause of perinatal morbidity and mortality. A short cervix is strongly associated with spontaneous preterm birth. Professional organizations support cervical length screening for singleton gestations with a prior spontaneous preterm birth and second-trimester cervical length measurements between 16-24 weeks. All interventions used to decrease the risk of preterm birth in women with a short cervix are based on clinical trials that used transvaginal cervical length measurement, but transabdominal ultrasound has been shown to correlate well with transvaginal measurement in some observational studies. Transvaginal cervical length measurement is more accurate and more reliably obtained than the transabdominal approach. Conversely, transabdominal ultrasound could have the advantage of ease of implementation and, in general, is perceived by patients to be associated with less discomfort. Currently, there is no randomized clinical study that compares head-to-head the effectiveness of transvaginal vs transabdominal ultrasound for preterm birth risk screening. This point/counterpoint article summarizes the pros and cons of the 2 ultrasound approaches and debates whether transvaginal ultrasound should be used exclusively or if transabdominal ultrasound can be incorporated in cervical length screening for prevention of preterm birth.

Vaginal progesterone decreases preterm birth ≤ 34 weeks of gestation in women with a singleton pregnancy and a short cervix: an updated meta-analysis including data from the OPPTIMUM study

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the efficacy of vaginal progesterone administration for preventing preterm birth and perinatal morbidity and mortality in asymptomatic women with a singleton gestation and a mid-trimester sonographic cervical length (CL) ≤ 25 mm.

METHODS

This was an updated systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials comparing the use of vaginal progesterone to placebo/no treatment in women with a singleton gestation and a mid-trimester sonographic CL ≤ 25 mm. Electronic databases, from their inception to May 2016, bibliographies and conference proceedings were searched. The primary outcome measure was preterm birth ≤ 34 weeks of gestation or fetal death. Two reviewers independently selected studies, assessed the risk of bias and extracted the data. Pooled relative risks (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated.

RESULTS

Five trials involving 974 women were included. A meta-analysis, including data from the OPPTIMUM study, showed that vaginal progesterone significantly decreased the risk of preterm birth ≤ 34 weeks of gestation or fetal death compared to placebo (18.1% vs 27.5%; RR, 0.66 (95% CI, 0.52-0.83); P = 0.0005; five studies; 974 women). Meta-analyses of data from four trials (723 women) showed that vaginal progesterone administration was associated with a statistically significant reduction in the risk of preterm birth occurring at < 28 to < 36 gestational weeks (RRs from 0.51 to 0.79), respiratory distress syndrome (RR, 0.47 (95% CI, 0.27-0.81)), composite neonatal morbidity and mortality (RR, 0.59 (95% CI, 0.38-0.91)), birth weight < 1500 g (RR, 0.52 (95% CI, 0.34-0.81)) and admission to the neonatal intensive care unit (RR, 0.67 (95% CI, 0.50-0.91)). There were no significant differences in neurodevelopmental outcomes at 2 years of age between the vaginal progesterone and placebo groups.

CONCLUSION

This updated systematic review and meta-analysis reaffirms that vaginal progesterone reduces the risk of preterm birth and neonatal morbidity and mortality in women with a singleton gestation and a mid-trimester CL ≤ 25 mm, without any deleterious effects on neurodevelopmental outcome. Clinicians should continue to perform universal transvaginal CL screening at 18-24 weeks of gestation in women with a singleton gestation and to offer vaginal progesterone to those with a CL ≤ 25 mm. Published 2016. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

When Future Change Matters: Modeling Future Price and Diffusion in Health Technology Assessments of Medical Devices

BACKGROUND

Health technology assessments (HTAs) that take account of future price changes have been examined in the literature, but the important issue of price reductions that are generated by the reimbursement decision has been ignored.

OBJECTIVES

To explore the impact of future price reductions caused by increasing uptake on HTAs and decision making for medical devices.

METHODS

We demonstrate the use of a two-stage modeling approach to derive estimates of technology price as a consequence of changes in technology uptake over future periods on the basis of existing theory and supported by empirical studies. We explore the impact on cost-effectiveness and expected value of information analysis in an illustrative example on the basis of a technology in development for preterm birth screening.

RESULTS

The application of our approach to the case study technology generates smaller incremental cost-effectiveness ratios compared with the commonly used single cohort approach. The extent of this reduction in the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio depends on the magnitude of the modeled price reduction, the speed of diffusion, and the length of the assumed technology life horizon. Results of value of information analysis are affected through changes in the expected net benefit calculation, the addition of uncertain parameters, and the diffusion-adjusted estimate of the affected patient population.

CONCLUSIONS

Because modeling future changes in price and uptake has the potential to affect HTA outcomes, modeling techniques that can address such changes should be considered for medical devices that may otherwise be rejected.

Cost-effectiveness of risk-based screening for cervical length to prevent preterm birth

BACKGROUND

Despite much debate, there is no consensus on whether women without a history of prior spontaneous preterm birth should receive universal cervical length screening. Risk-based screening has been proposed as an alternative to universal cervical length measurement and may represent a more cost-effective approach to preterm birth prevention.

OBJECTIVE

We sought to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of risk-based screening compared to universal cervical length screening or no screening for preterm birth prevention in low-risk women.

STUDY DESIGN

A decision analytic model compared the cost and effectiveness of 3 cervical length screening strategies in a population of women with no prior preterm birth. Risk-based screening, universal screening, and no screening were compared using cost, probability, and utility estimates derived from the existing literature and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for each strategy were calculated.

RESULTS

In the base-case analysis, risk-based screening and universal screening were more effective and less costly than no screening. In comparison to the risk-based strategy, universal screening of the United States population of women without a prior preterm birth (N = 3.5 million annually) would result in 2.19 million more transvaginal ultrasounds, 11,027 more women treated with vaginal progesterone, 913 fewer preterm births <35 weeks gestational age, and 63 fewer neonatal deaths at an additional cost of $51,936,699 annually. Despite costing more, the additional health benefits of universal screening resulted in that strategy being more cost-effective than risk-based screening, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $21,144 per quality-adjusted life-year.

CONCLUSION

In women without a prior spontaneous preterm birth, universal cervical length screening is cost-effective in comparison to both risk-based screening and no screening.

Revisiting the cost-effectiveness of universal cervical length screening: importance of progesterone efficacy

BACKGROUND

Preterm birth (PTB) is a significant cause of neonatal morbidity and mortality. Studies have shown that vaginal progesterone therapy for women diagnosed with shortened cervical length can reduce the risk of PTB. However, published cost-effectiveness analyses of vaginal progesterone for short cervix have not considered an appropriate range of clinically important parameters.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of universal cervical length screening in women without a history of spontaneous PTB, assuming that all women with shortened cervical length receive progesterone to reduce the likelihood of PTB.

STUDY DESIGN

A decision analysis model was developed to compare universal screening and no-screening strategies. The primary outcome was the cost-effectiveness ratio of both the strategies, defined as the estimated patient cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) realized by the children. One-way sensitivity analyses were performed by varying progesterone efficacy to prevent PTB. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed to address uncertainties in model parameter estimates.

RESULTS

In our base-case analysis, assuming that progesterone reduces the likelihood of PTB by 11%, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for screening was $158,000/QALY. Sensitivity analyses show that these results are highly sensitive to the presumed efficacy of progesterone to prevent PTB. In a 1-way sensitivity analysis, screening results in cost-saving if progesterone can reduce PTB by 36%. Additionally, for screening to be cost-effective at WTP=$60,000 in three clinical scenarios, progesterone therapy has to reduce PTB by 60%, 34% and 93%. Screening is never cost-saving in the worst-case scenario or when serial ultrasounds are employed, but could be cost-saving with a two-day hospitalization only if progesterone were 64% effective.

CONCLUSION

Cervical length screening and treatment with progesterone is a not a dominant, cost-effective strategy unless progesterone is more effective than has been suggested by available data for US women. Until future trials demonstrate greater progesterone efficacy, and effectiveness studies confirm a benefit from screening and treatment, the cost-effectiveness of universal cervical length screening in the United States remains questionable.