Using Natural Pelt Patterns to Estimate Population Abundance with Mark–Resight Models

AbundanceR: A Novel Method for Estimating Wildlife Abundance Based on Distance Sampling and Species Distribution Models

Appropriate field survey methods and robust modeling approaches play an important role in wildlife protection and habitat management because reliable information on wildlife distribution and abundance is important for conservation planning and actions. However, accurately estimating animal abundance is challenging in most species, as usually only a small proportion of the population can be detected during surveys. Species distribution models can predict the habitat suitability index, which differs from species abundance. We designed a method to adjust the results from species distribution models to achieve better accuracy for abundance estimation. This method comprises four steps: (1) conducting distance sampling, recording species occurrences, and surveying routes; (2) performing species distribution modeling using occurrence records and predicting animal abundance in each quadrat in the study area; (3) comparing the difference between field survey results and predicted abundance in quadrats along survey routes, adjusting model prediction, and summing up to obtain total abundance in the study area; (4) calculating uncertainty from three sources, i.e., distance sampling (using detection rate), species distribution models (using R squared), and differences between the field survey and model prediction [using the standard deviation of the ratio (observation/prediction) at different zones]. We developed an R package called abundanceR to estimate wildlife abundance and provided data for the Tibetan wild ass (Equus kiang) based on field surveys at the Three-River-Source National Park, as well as 29 layers of environmental variables covering the terrestrial areas of the planet. Our method can provide accurate estimation of abundance for animals inhabiting open areas that can be easily observed during distance sampling, and whose spatial heterogeneity of animal density within the study area can be accurately predicted using species distribution models.