A multi‐metric movement model for identifying elk parturition events

Evaluating movement-based methods for estimating the frequency and timing of parturition in mule deer

BACKGROUND

Information on reproduction of harvested species such as mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) is vital for conservation and management. Furthermore, parturition in ungulates may be detected using patterns of movement logged by GPS transmitters. Several movement-based methods have been developed to detect parturition in ungulates including the Peterson method, behavioral change point analysis (BCPA), rolling minimum convex polygons (rMCP), individual-based method (IBM), and population-based method (PBM). Our objectives were to (1) test the accuracy and the precision of each previously described method and (2) develop an improved method optimized for mule deer that incorporated aspects of the other methods.

METHODS

We determined parturition timing and status for female mule deer fitted with GPS collars and implanted with vaginal implant transmitters (VITs). We used movement patterns before and after parturition to set movement thresholds for each movement-based method. Following model training, we used location and birth date data from an external dataset to test the effectiveness of each movement-based method. Additionally, we developed a novel method for detecting parturition called the analysis of parturition indicators (API). We used two regression analyses to determine the accuracy and precision of estimates generated by each method.

RESULTS

The six methods we employed varied in accuracy, with the API, rMCP, and BCPA being most accurate. Precision also varied among methods, with the API, rMCP, and PBM generating the most precise estimates of parturition dates. The API and the rMCP performed similarly and better overall than any of the other existing methods.

CONCLUSIONS

We found that movement-based methods could be used to accurately and precisely detect parturition in mule deer. Further, we determined that the API and rMCP methods had the greatest overall success at detecting parturition in mule deer. The relative success of the API and rMCP may be attributed to the fact that both methods use home range size to detect parturition and are validated using known parturition dates of collared deer. We present the API as an efficient method of estimating birth status and timing of parturition of mule deer fitted with GPS transmitters, as well as affirm the effectiveness of a previously developed method, rMCP.

Using Piecewise Regression to Identify Biological Phenomena in Biotelemetry Datasets

Technological advances in the field of animal tracking have greatly expanded the potential to remotely monitor animals, opening the door to exploring how animals shift their behaviour over time or respond to external stimuli. A wide variety of animal‐borne sensors can provide information on an animal's location, movement characteristics, external environmental conditions and internal physiological status.

Here, we demonstrate how piecewise regression can be used to identify the presence and timing of potential shifts in a variety of biological responses using multiple biotelemetry data streams. Different biological latent states can be inferred by partitioning a time‐series into multiple segments based on changes in modelled responses (e.g. their mean, variance, trend, degree of autocorrelation) and specifying a unique model structure for each interval.

We provide six example applications highlighting a variety of taxonomic species, data streams, timescales and biological phenomena. These examples include a short‐term behavioural response (flee and return) by a trumpeter swan Cygnus buccinator following a GPS collar deployment; remote identification of parturition based on movements by a pregnant moose Alces alces; a physiological response (spike in heart‐rate) in a black bear Ursus americanus to a stressful stimulus (presence of a drone); a mortality event of a trumpeter swan signalled by changes in collar temperature and overall dynamic body acceleration; an unsupervised method for identifying the onset, return, duration and staging use of sandhill crane Antigone canadensis migration; and estimation of the transition between incubation and brood‐rearing (i.e. hatching) for a breeding trumpeter swan.

We implement analyses using the mcp package in R, which provides functionality for specifying and fitting a wide variety of user‐defined model structures in a Bayesian framework and methods for assessing and comparing models using information criteria and cross‐validation measures.

These simple modelling approaches are accessible to a wide audience and offer a straightforward means of assessing a variety of biologically relevant changes in animal behaviour.