Genomic Prediction: Progress and Perspectives for Rice Improvement

The BLUP method in evaluation of breeding values of Russian spring wheat lines using micro- and macroelements in seeds

Genomic selection is a technology that allows for the determination of the genetic value of varieties of agricultural plants and animal breeds, based on information about genotypes and phenotypes. The measured breeding value (BV) for varieties and breeds in relation to the target trait allows breeding stages to be thoroughly planned and the parent forms suitable for crossing to be chosen. In this work, the BLUP method was used to assess the breeding value of 149 Russian varieties and introgression lines (4 measurements for each variety or line, 596 phenotypic points) of spring wheat according to the content of seven chemical elements in the grain - K, Ca, Mg, Mn, Fe, Zn, Cu. The quality of the evaluation of breeding values was assessed using cross-validation, when the sample was randomly divided into five parts, one of which was chosen as a test population. The following average values of the Pearson correlation were obtained for predicting the concentration of trace elements: K - 0.67, Ca - 0.61, Mg - 0.4, Mn - 0.5, Fe - 0.38, Zn - 0.46, Cu - 0.48. Out of the 35 models studied, the p-value was below the nominal significant threshold (p-value < 0.05) for 28 models. For 11 models, the p-value was significant after correction for multiple testing (p-value < 0.001). For Ca and K, four out of five models and for Mn two out of five models had a p-value below the threshold adjusted for multiple testing. For 30 varieties that showed the best varietal values for Ca, K and Mn, the average breeding value was 296.43, 785.11 and 4.87 mg/kg higher, respectively, than the average breeding value of the population. The results obtained show the relevance of the application of genomic selection models even in such limited-size samples. The models for K, Ca and Mn are suitable for assessing the breeding value of Russian wheat varieties based on these characteristics.

Realized Genetic Gain in Rice: Achievements from Breeding Programs

Genetic improvement is crucial for ensuring food security globally. Indeed, plant breeding has contributed significantly to increasing the productivity of major crops, including rice, over the last century. Evaluating the efficiency of breeding strategies necessitates a quantification of this progress. One approach involves assessing the genetic gain achieved through breeding programs based on quantitative traits. This study aims to provide a theoretical understanding of genetic gain, summarize the major results of genetic gain studies in rice breeding, and suggest ways of improving breeding program strategies and future studies on genetic gain. To achieve this, we present the concept of genetic gain and the essential aspects of its estimation. We also provide an extensive literature review of genetic gain studies in rice (Oryza sativa L.) breeding programs to understand the advances made to date. We reviewed 29 studies conducted between 1999 and 2023, covering different regions, traits, periods, and estimation methods. The genetic gain for grain yield, in particular, showed significant variation, ranging from 1.5 to 167.6 kg/ha/year, with a mean value of 36.3 kg/ha/year. This translated into a rate of genetic gain for grain yield ranging from 0.1% to over 3.0%. The impact of multi-trait selection on grain yield was clarified by studies that reported genetic gains for other traits, such as plant height, days to flowering, and grain quality. These findings reveal that while breeding programs have achieved significant gains, further improvements are necessary to meet the growing demand for rice. We also highlight the limitations of these studies, which hinder accurate estimations of genetic gain. In conclusion, we offer suggestions for improving the estimation of genetic gain based on quantitative genetic principles and computer simulations to optimize rice breeding strategies.

Optimization of Multi-Generation Multi-location Genomic Prediction Models for Recurrent Genomic Selection in an Upland Rice Population

Genomic selection is a worthy breeding method to improve genetic gain in recurrent selection breeding schemes. The integration of multi-generation and multi-location information could significantly improve genomic prediction models in the context of shuttle breeding. The Cirad-CIAT upland rice breeding program applies recurrent genomic selection and seeks to optimize the scheme to increase genetic gain while reducing phenotyping efforts. We used a synthetic population (PCT27) of which S0 plants were all genotyped and advanced by selfing and bulk seed harvest to the S0:2, S0:3, and S0:4 generations. The PCT27 was then divided into two sets. The S0:2 and S0:3 progenies for PCT27A and the S0:4 progenies for PCT27B were phenotyped in two locations: Santa Rosa the target selection location, within the upland rice growing area, and Palmira, the surrogate location, far from the upland rice growing area but easier for experimentation. While the calibration used either one of the two sets phenotyped in one or two locations, the validation population was only the PCT27B phenotyped in Santa Rosa. Five scenarios of genomic prediction and 24 models were performed and compared. Training the prediction model with the PCT27B phenotyped in Santa Rosa resulted in predictive abilities ranging from 0.19 for grain zinc concentration to 0.30 for grain yield. Expanding the training set with the inclusion of the PCT27A resulted in greater predictive abilities for all traits but grain yield, with increases from 5% for plant height to 61% for grain zinc concentration. Models with the PCT27B phenotyped in two locations resulted in higher prediction accuracy when the models assumed no genotype-by-environment (G × E) interaction for flowering (0.38) and grain zinc concentration (0.27). For plant height, the model assuming a single G × E variance provided higher accuracy (0.28). The gain in predictive ability for grain yield was the greatest (0.25) when environment-specific variance deviation effect for G × E was considered. While the best scenario was specific to each trait, the results indicated that the gain in predictive ability provided by the multi-location and multi-generation calibration was low. Yet, this approach could lead to increased selection intensity, acceleration of the breeding cycle, and a sizable economic advantage for the program.

Genomic selection for salinity tolerance in japonica rice

Improving plant performance in salinity-prone conditions is a significant challenge in breeding programs. Genomic selection is currently integrated into many plant breeding programs as a tool for increasing selection intensity and precision for complex traits and for reducing breeding cycle length. A rice reference panel (RP) of 241 Oryza sativa L. japonica accessions genotyped with 20,255 SNPs grown in control and mild salinity stress conditions was evaluated at the vegetative stage for eight morphological traits and ion mass fractions (Na and K). Weak to strong genotype-by-condition interactions were found for the traits considered. Cross-validation showed that the predictive ability of genomic prediction methods ranged from 0.25 to 0.64 for multi-environment models with morphological traits and from 0.05 to 0.40 for indices of stress response and ion mass fractions. The performances of a breeding population (BP) comprising 393 japonica accessions were predicted with models trained on the RP. For validation of the predictive performances of the models, a subset of 41 accessions was selected from the BP and phenotyped under the same experimental conditions as the RP. The predictive abilities estimated on this subset ranged from 0.00 to 0.66 for the multi-environment models, depending on the traits, and were strongly correlated with the predictive abilities on cross-validation in the RP in salt condition (r = 0.69). We show here that genomic selection is efficient for predicting the salt stress tolerance of breeding lines. Genomic selection could improve the efficiency of rice breeding strategies for salinity-prone environments.

Population improvement via recurrent selection drives genetic gain in upland rice breeding

One of the main challenges of breeding programs is to identify superior genotypes from a large number of candidates. By gradually increasing the frequency of favorable alleles in the breeding population, recurrent selection improves the population mean for target traits, increasing the chance to identify promising genotypes. In rice, population improvement through recurrent selection has been used very little to date, except in Latin America. At Embrapa (Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation), the upland rice breeding program is conducted in two phases: population improvement followed by product development. In this study, the CNA6 population, evaluated over five cycles (3 to 7) of selection, including 20 field trials, was used to assess the realized genetic gain. A high rate of genetic gain was observed for grain yield, at 215 kg.ha-1 per cycle or 67.8 kg.ha-1 per year (3.08%). The CNA6 population outperformed the controls only for the last cycle, with a yield difference of 1128 kg.ha-1. An analysis of the product development pipeline, based on 29 advanced yield trials with lines derived from cycles 3 to 6, showed that lines derived from the CNA6 population had high grain yield, but did not outperform the controls. These results demonstrate that the application of recurrent selection to a breeding population with sufficient genetic variability can result in significant genetic gains for quantitative traits, such as grain yield. The integration of this strategy into a two-phase breeding program also makes it possible to increase quantitative traits while selecting for other traits of interest.

Multi-environment Genomic Selection in Rice Elite Breeding Lines

BACKGROUND

Assessing the performance of elite lines in target environments is essential for breeding programs to select the most relevant genotypes. One of the main complexities in this task resides in accounting for the genotype by environment interactions. Genomic prediction models that integrate information from multi-environment trials and environmental covariates can be efficient tools in this context. The objective of this study was to assess the predictive ability of different genomic prediction models to optimize the use of multi-environment information. We used 111 elite breeding lines representing the diversity of the international rice research institute breeding program for irrigated ecosystems. The lines were evaluated for three traits (days to flowering, plant height, and grain yield) in 15 environments in Asia and Africa and genotyped with 882 SNP markers. We evaluated the efficiency of genomic prediction to predict untested environments using seven multi-environment models and three cross-validation scenarios.

RESULTS

The elite lines were found to belong to the indica group and more specifically the indica-1B subgroup which gathered improved material originating from the Green Revolution. Phenotypic correlations between environments were high for days to flowering and plant height (33% and 54% of pairwise correlation greater than 0.5) but low for grain yield (lower than 0.2 in most cases). Clustering analyses based on environmental covariates separated Asia's and Africa's environments into different clusters or subclusters. The predictive abilities ranged from 0.06 to 0.79 for days to flowering, 0.25-0.88 for plant height, and - 0.29-0.62 for grain yield. We found that models integrating genotype-by-environment interaction effects did not perform significantly better than models integrating only main effects (genotypes and environment or environmental covariates). The different cross-validation scenarios showed that, in most cases, the use of all available environments gave better results than a subset.

CONCLUSION

Multi-environment genomic prediction models with main effects were sufficient for accurate phenotypic prediction of elite lines in targeted environments. These results will help refine the testing strategy to update the genomic prediction models to improve predictive ability.