Disease Progression Analysis: Towards Mechanism-Based Models

A population model of early rheumatoid arthritis disease activity during treatment with methotrexate, sulfasalazine and hydroxychloroquine

AIMS

To develop a population model describing the disease activity (DAS28) time course in patients with early rheumatoid arthritis (RA) treated with triple disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drug (DMARD) therapy (methotrexate, sulfasalazine and hydroxychloroquine).

METHODS

DAS28 was obtained in 263 patients with early RA from initiation of therapy until 60 weeks. Using NONMEM(®), base models (DAS28 vs. time) and covariate influences were investigated for the population.

RESULTS

The best model was an exponential model of DAS28 vs. time that was additive to baseline DAS28, with covariance between parameters, and a combined residual error model. Age and patient smoking history were covariates significantly affecting response to therapy. Population estimates were baseline DAS28 (5.7), extent of change in DAS28 (-2.8) and the half-life of disease activity (6.2 weeks; time to steady disease state achieved within approximately 30 weeks). Older individuals exhibited more severe baseline DAS28, described by a power function centred around 57 years (baseline DAS28 for 40- and 70-year-old patients were 5.4 vs. 5.8, respectively) and current smokers took longer to achieve a steady disease state (approximately 50 weeks). There was considerable within-patient random variability in DAS28 over time (empirical 90% CI for DAS28 in a population typical patient at 60 weeks: 1.8, 4.2 with median value of 2.8).

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first report of a disease activity model for early RA treated with triple DMARD therapy. Smoking and age were identified as covariates.

Modeling of age-dependent amyloid accumulation and γ-secretase inhibition of soluble and insoluble Aβ in a transgenic mouse model of amyloid deposition

According to the “amyloid hypothesis,” accumulation of amyloid beta (Aβ) peptides in the brain is linked to the development of Alzheimer's disease. The aims of this investigation were to develop a model for the age-dependent amyloid accumulation and to quantify the age- and treatment-duration-dependent efficacy of the γ-secretase inhibitor MRK-560 in the Tg2576 transgenic mouse model of amyloid deposition. Soluble and insoluble Aβ40 and Aβ42 brain concentrations were compiled from multiple naïve, vehicle, and MRK-560-treated animals. The age of Tg2576 mice in the studies ranged between 3.5 and 26 months. Single doses of MRK-560 inhibited soluble Aβ40 levels in animals up to 9 months old. In contrast, MRK-560 did not cause significant acute effects on soluble Aβ40 levels in animals older than 13 months. Absolute levels of Aβ variants increased exponentially over age and reached a plateau at ∼20 months. In the final model, it was assumed that MRK-560 inhibited the Aβ production rate with an Aβ level-dependent IC₅₀.The age-dependent increase in Aβ levels was best described by a logistic model that stimulated the production rate of soluble Aβ. The increase in insoluble Aβ was defined as a function of soluble Aβ by using a scaling factor and a different turnover rate. The turnover half-life for insoluble Aβ was estimated at 30 days, explaining that at least a 4-week treatment in young animals was required to demonstrate a reduction in insoluble Aβ. Taken together, the derived knowledge could be exploited for an improved design of new experiments in Tg2576 mice.