Computational Aspects in Uncertainty Analyses of Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic Models

Uncertainty in biomonitoring and kinetic modeling

Uncertainty in exposure assessment and uncertainty in kinetic models of early effects after exposure to a toxin are addressed in this paper. Sources of uncertainty in the determination of exposure of workers in chemical industry exposed to dioxins are exhibited and a simple kinetic model for biomonitor measurements of the concentrations from occupational exposure is derived. Model uncertainty, and uncertainty in the model parameters of physiologically-based pharmacokinetic models (PBPK models) are addressed when these models are used to estimate the effective dose in risk assessment. Uncertainty in the model parameters originating from the use of different statistical analysis methods is exhibited for Hill type nonlinear kinetics of enzyme induction mediated by a toxin.