Physically Consistent Responses of the Global Atmospheric Hydrological Cycle in Models and Observations. In: Bengtsson L, Bonnet R, Calisto M, Destouni G, Gurney R, Johannessen J, Kerr Y, Lahoz W, Rast M, editors. The Earth's Hydrological Cycle. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands; 2014. pp. 533-52. [DOI: 10.1007/978-94-017-8789-5_4]

Potential climate engineering effectiveness and side effects during a high carbon dioxide-emission scenario

The realization that mitigation efforts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions have, until now, been relatively ineffective has led to an increasing interest in climate engineering as a possible means of preventing the potentially catastrophic consequences of climate change. While many studies have addressed the potential effectiveness of individual methods there have been few attempts to compare them. Here we use an Earth system model to compare the effectiveness and side effects of afforestation, artificial ocean upwelling, ocean iron fertilization, ocean alkalinization and solar radiation management during a high carbon dioxide-emission scenario. We find that even when applied continuously and at scales as large as currently deemed possible, all methods are, individually, either relatively ineffective with limited (<8%) warming reductions, or they have potentially severe side effects and cannot be stopped without causing rapid climate change. Our simulations suggest that the potential for these types of climate engineering to make up for failed mitigation may be very limited.

The effectiveness of climate engineering in averting potentially catastrophic climate change has thus far been poorly evaluated. Keller et al. use an Earth system model to show that five different climate engineering scenarios are likely to have either a limited impact or potentially severe side effects.