Neighborhood Effects in Bird Distributions, Navarre, Spain

Spatial-temporal model of haemorrhagic disease in white-tailed deer in south-east USA, 1983 to 2000

The present study constructed a spatial-temporal statistical model to identify the risk and protective factors for haemorrhagic disease (HD) in white-tailed deer in the five states of Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina and Tennessee. The response variable was binary, indicating the presence or absence of HD in an individual county, measured annually from 1983 to 2000. Predictor variables included climatic factors of temperature, rainfall, wind speed and dew point, remotely sensed data of normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) and land surface temperature derived from archived remotely sensed advanced very-high-resolution radiometer (AVHRR) satellite data, elevation, a spatial autocorrelation (SA) term and a temporal autocorrelation term. This study first applied principal component factor analysis to reduce the volume of climatic data and remotely sensed data. Then, a generalised linear mixed model framework (GLMM) was used to develop a spatial-temporal statistical model. The results showed that the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was 0.728, indicating a good overall fit of the model. The total prediction accuracy over the 18 year period with optimal cut-off probability was 67 per cent. The prediction accuracy for individual years ranged from 48 to 75 per cent.

Habitat occupancy patterns of a forest dwelling songbird: causes and consequences

We examined patterns of habitat use and reproductive performance of a migratory songbird, the black-throated blue warbler (Dendroica caerulescens (Gmelin, 1789)), within a 3160-ha forested landscape. We surveyed 371 sites over a 3-year period. Some sites were never occupied, while others were occupied for 1, 2, or 3 years. For these 3 years we found that warbler abundance increased with frequency of occupancy. Additionally, we found that (i) deciduousness and understory shrub density increased with frequency of occupancy; (ii) in 1 of 3 years, food abundance was higher at the most frequently occupied sites; and (iii) nest predators exhibited predator-specific abundance patterns across occupancy categories. We next used occupancy patterns documented in the first 3 years of the study to predict settlement, age structure, and reproductive performance at a subset of sites in the final year of the study. We found that males settled earlier in the breeding season at sites with a high frequency of occupancy. There were no differences in arrival times of females. Additionally, age structure did not vary for either males or females across sites with different occupancy levels. Although we found no difference in mean reproductive output across sites with different occupancy levels, over 50% of the young produced fledged from territories overlapping the high occupancy sites.