Viral contacts confound studies of childhood leukemia and high-voltage transmission lines

The sensitivity of reported effects of EMF on childhood leukemia to uncontrolled confounding by residential mobility: a hybrid simulation study and an empirical analysis using CAPS data

PURPOSE

Residential mobility is considered as a potential source of confounding in studies assessing environmental exposures, including in studies of electromagnetic field (EMF) exposures and childhood leukemia.

METHODS

We present a hybrid simulation study where we simulate a synthetic dataset based on an existing study and use it to assess the sensitivity of EMF-leukemia associations to different scenarios of uncontrolled confounding by mobility under two major hypotheses of the infectious etiology of childhood leukemia. We then used the findings to conduct sensitivity analysis and empirically offset the potential bias due to unmeasured mobility in the California Power Line Study dataset.

RESULTS

As expected, the stronger the assumed relationship between mobility and exposure and outcome, the greater the potential bias. However, no scenario created a bias strong enough to completely explain away previously observed associations.

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude that uncontrolled confounding by residential mobility had some impact on the estimated effect of EMF exposures on childhood leukemia, but that it was unlikely to be the primary explanation behind previously observed largely consistent, but unexplained associations.

Residential mobility and childhood leukemia

AIMS

Studies of environmental exposures and childhood leukemia studies do not usually account for residential mobility. Yet, in addition to being a potential risk factor, mobility can induce selection bias, confounding, or measurement error in such studies. Using data collected for California Powerline Study (CAPS), we attempt to disentangle the effect of mobility.

METHODS

We analyzed data from a population-based case-control study of childhood leukemia using cases who were born in California and diagnosed between 1988 and 2008 and birth certificate controls. We used stratified logistic regression, case-only analysis, and propensity-score adjustments to assess predictors of residential mobility between birth and diagnosis, and account for potential confounding due to residential mobility.

RESULTS

Children who moved tended to be older, lived in housing other than single-family homes, had younger mothers and fewer siblings, and were of lower socioeconomic status. Odds ratios for leukemia among non-movers living <50 meters (m) from a 200+ kilovolt line (OR: 1.62; 95% CI: 0.72-3.65) and for calculated fields ≥ 0.4 microTesla (OR: 1.71; 95% CI: 0.65-4.52) were slightly higher than previously reported overall results. Adjustments for propensity scores based on all variables predictive of mobility, including dwelling type, increased odds ratios for leukemia to 2.61 (95% CI: 1.76-3.86) for living < 50 m from a 200 + kilovolt line and to 1.98 (1.11-3.52) for calculated fields. Individual or propensity-score adjustments for all variables, except dwelling type, did not materially change the estimates of power line exposures on childhood leukemia.

CONCLUSION

The residential mobility of childhood leukemia cases varied by several sociodemographic characteristics, but not by the distance to the nearest power line or calculated magnetic fields. Mobility appears to be an unlikely explanation for the associations observed between power lines exposure and childhood leukemia.

Childhood leukaemia and distance from power lines in California: a population-based case-control study

Background:

Studies have reported an increased risk of childhood leukaemia associated with living near high-voltage electric power transmission lines that extend to distances at which magnetic fields from lines are negligible. We conducted a large records-based case-control study of childhood leukaemia risk in the population living near power lines in California.

Methods:

The study included 5788 childhood leukaemia and 3308 central nervous system (CNS) cancer cases (for comparison) born in and diagnosed in California (1986–2008), and matched to population-based controls by age and sex. We geocoded birth address and estimated the distance from residence to transmission lines using geographic information systems, aerial imagery, and, for some residences, site visits.

Results:

For leukaemia, there was a slight excess of cases within 50 m of a transmission line over 200 kV (odds ratio 1.4, 95% confidence interval 0.7–2.7). There was no evidence of increased risk for distances beyond 50 m, for lower-voltage lines, or for CNS cancers.

Conclusions:

Our findings did not clearly support an increased childhood leukaemia risk associated with close proximity (<50 m) to higher voltage lines, but could be consistent with a small increased risk. Reports of increased risk for distances beyond 50 m were not replicated.

Epidemiologic study of residential proximity to transmission lines and childhood cancer in California: description of design, epidemiologic methods and study population

We conducted a large epidemiologic case-control study in California to examine the association between childhood cancer risk and distance from the home address at birth to the nearest high-voltage overhead transmission line as a replication of the study of Draper et al. in the United Kingdom. We present a detailed description of the study design, methods of case ascertainment, control selection, exposure assessment and data analysis plan. A total of 5788 childhood leukemia cases and 3308 childhood central nervous system cancer cases (included for comparison) and matched controls were available for analysis. Birth and diagnosis addresses of cases and birth addresses of controls were geocoded. Distance from the home to nearby overhead transmission lines was ascertained on the basis of the electric power companies' geographic information system (GIS) databases, additional Google Earth aerial evaluation and site visits to selected residences. We evaluated distances to power lines up to 2000 m and included consideration of lower voltages (60-69 kV). Distance measures based on GIS and Google Earth evaluation showed close agreement (Pearson correlation >0.99). Our three-tiered approach to exposure assessment allowed us to achieve high specificity, which is crucial for studies of rare diseases with low exposure prevalence.

Residential mobility of populations near UK power lines and implications for childhood leukaemia

Epidemiological studies suggest associations between childhood leukaemia and living near high-voltage power lines, but the most obvious potential causative agent, the magnetic fields produced by the power lines, is not supported by laboratory studies or a known mechanism. An alternative hypothesised explanation is if there is greater population mobility near power lines, linking to the findings of Kinlen that population mixing increases leukaemia rates. We used the names recorded in electoral registers to see whether people near power lines move house more often than the population as a whole. We did find variations, but only small ones, and not such as to support the hypothesis.

Do studies of wire code and childhood leukemia point towards or away from magnetic fields as the causal agent?

A long-standing point of controversy in the epidemiologic literature concerns the meaning of a wire code-childhood leukemia association for assessing the role of magnetic field exposure. Six studies of wire codes and childhood leukemia in North America were examined, three of which reported positive associations and all of which found some relation between wire codes and measured magnetic fields. Supporting magnetic fields as the basis for the wire code associations are the correspondence between those wire code levels which predict distinct magnetic fields and those which predict leukemia risk in the positive studies. Geographic locations and methods that refine wire codes as magnetic fields predictors also tend to strengthen the association with leukemia. Opposing arguments are based on the failure of the wire code-magnetic field association to predict the strength of association across studies, including the unexplained lack of association between wire codes and leukemia in the Midwest and in Canada. Alternatives to magnetic fields are less supported; residential mobility, social class, and neighborhood characteristics are unlikely to explain a wire code effect. Ambiguity persists because of the modest strength of the wire code-leukemia association, the complexity of the relation between wire codes and magnetic fields, lack of knowledge of risk factors for childhood leukemia, and the limited evaluation of wire code correlates other than magnetic fields.

A pooled analysis of magnetic fields, wire codes, and childhood leukemia. Childhood Leukemia-EMF Study Group

We obtained original individual data from 15 studies of magnetic fields or wire codes and childhood leukemia, and we estimated magnetic field exposure for subjects with sufficient data to do so. Summary estimates from 12 studies that supplied magnetic field measures exhibited little or no association of magnetic fields with leukemia when comparing 0.1-0.2 and 0.2-0.3 microtesla (microT) categories with the 0-0.1 microT category, but the Mantel-Haenszel summary odds ratio comparing >0.3 microT to 0-0.1 microT was 1.7 (95% confidence limits = 1.2, 2.3). Similar results were obtained using covariate adjustment and spline regression. The study-specific relations appeared consistent despite the numerous methodologic differences among the studies. The association of wire codes with leukemia varied considerably across studies, with odds ratio estimates for very high current vs low current configurations ranging from 0.7 to 3.0 (homogeneity P = 0.005). Based on a survey of household magnetic fields, an estimate of the U.S. population attributable fraction of childhood leukemia associated with residential exposure is 3% (95% confidence limits = -2%, 8%). Our results contradict the idea that the magnetic field association with leukemia is less consistent than the wire code association with leukemia, although analysis of the four studies with both measures indicates that the wire code association is not explained by measured fields. The results also suggest that appreciable magnetic field effects, if any, may be concentrated among relatively high and uncommon exposures, and that studies of highly exposed populations would be needed to clarify the relation of magnetic fields to childhood leukemia.

Meta-analyses of studies on the association between electromagnetic fields and childhood cancer

During the last 15 years several studies have investigated a possible relationship between exposure to electromagnetic fields (EMF) and childhood cancer. There is considerable variation between these studies with respect to methods of exposure assessment and reported results. Methods of exposure assessment range from simple visual criteria to costly and time consuming measurements or estimations of electric flux density. Additional individual refinements further hinder the comparability of results. We carried out several meta-analyses of data published so far taking into account the heterogeneity between studies as far as possible. Our particular interest was to investigate a potential dose-response-like relationship by comparing analyses for different cut-off points of exposure. Our meta-analyses suggest a marginal association between all cancer diagnoses combined and EMF exposure assessed by the two-level wire code (odds ratio, OR = 1.37, 95% confidence interval, CI: 0.94-2.00). Based on this criterion a significant effect was found for bases of leukemia (OR = 1.66, CI: 1.11-2.49) but not for central nervous system (CNS) tumors (OR = 1.5, CI: 0.69-3.26) or lymphomas (OR = 1.32, CI: 0.52-3.37). A significant increase in overall cancer risk with increasing stages of the four-level wire code (P = 0.003) could not be confirmed when data of the initial study performed by Wertheimer and Leeper were excluded (P = 0.17). When the exposure criterion was based on distance to the transmission line, estimated ORs for all cancers combined and for leukemias increased with distances decreasing from 100 to 25 m. Those analyses incorporating data on measured or calculated EMFs demonstrated also an increase of overall cancer risk with higher cut-off points. However, regarding individual diagnoses, this finding was reflected only in the group of brain tumors. One possible explanation for the high degree of heterogeneity between studies--especially with respect to methods of exposure assessment and choice of the respective cutpoint relevant for an increase in cancer risk--could be that published cut-off points were not always chosen in advance, but were selected because in exploratory analyses the most striking results were obtained with these specific cut-off values. Should this speculation be true at least partially, any meta-analysis will yield a false-positive finding. Further results of comparable studies with strictly a priori planned analyses are necessary to properly investigate a possible link between EMF and childhood cancer.