Prediction of historical and contemporary luminosity (UFO) reports by seismic variables within Western Europe

An environmental analysis of public UAP sightings and sky view potential

Sightings of unidentified flying objects (UFOs) or unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) have been reported throughout history. Given the potential security and safety risks they pose, as well as scientific curiosity, there is increasing interest in understanding what these sighting reports represent. We approach this problem as an important one of the human experience and that can be examined through a geographical lens: what local factors may increase or decrease the number of sighting reports? Using a Bayesian regression method, we test hypotheses based on variables representing sky view potential (light pollution, tree canopy, and cloud cover) and the potential for objects to be present in the sky (aircraft and military installations). The dependent variable includes over 98,000 publicly reported UAP sightings in the conterminous United States during the 20-year period from 2001 to 2020. The model results find credible correlations between variables that suggest people see more "phenomena" when they have more opportunity to. This analysis is one of few investigations of UAP sighting reports at a national scale providing context to help examine individual reports. Given that these objects are labeled unidentifiable in the personal sense, there are many natural and/or human based explanations worth exploring.

Geophysical Variables and Behavior: XXXII. Evaluations of UFO Reports in an Area of Infrequent Seismicity: The Carman, Manitoba Episode

A critical test of the observation that most well documented episodes (“flaps”) of UFO reports (UFORs) display a temporal relationship to the nearest release of seismic energy was completed for the Carman episode. These reports occurred over a 3-yr. period (1974-1977) near Winnipeg, Manitoba; yet, this province has no recorded seismicity. Visual inspection of the numbers of UFORs per month during this period indicated they were strongly correlated with the amount of seismic energy released within 1000 km. The Carman episode occurred during the time of the closest and strongest recorded earthquake in the recent history (since 1950) of the area. Characteristics of the local geology and crustal morphology were considered as factors that might influence the furthest distance at which seismicity is associated with UFORs. The results were interpreted as supporting the hypothesis that most well documented episodes of UFORs refer to actual geophysical phenomena that are generated by tectonic strain.

Geophysical Variables and Behavior: LXII. Temporal Coupling of UFO Reports and Seismic Energy Release within the Rio Grande Rift System: Discriminative Validity of the Tectonic Strain Theory

Persistent, moderately strong temporal correlations (0.7 < rho < 0.8) between the numbers of UFO reports (UFORs) and the amount of seismic energy release were evident for approximately 30 years within New Mexico and Colorado, surrounding the active Rio Grande Rift System. The hypothetical construct of a moving “strain field” was suggested by the gradually closer occurrence of UFORs over time to an imminent epicenter. Tests of discriminative validity involved partial correlation analyses for different types of UFORs. The results indicated that only classic luminous phenomena, similar to historical descriptions of earthquake lights, were strongly correlated with the release of seismic energy within the area. Anomalous luminosities similar to conventional transients, such as meteors, or putative extraterrestrial intelligence, were not correlated significantly with the energy release. Both the validity and reliability of the tectonic strain theory were supported.

Geophysical Variables and Behavior: LXIII. Quasi-Experimental Evidence of the Tectonic Strain Theory of Luminous Phenomena: The Derby, Colorado Earthquakes

This study provides the first quasi-experimental evidence for the Tectonic Strain Theory for luminous phenomena. Approximately 1500 earthquakes occurred near Derby, Colorado during the years 1962 through 1967 as a result of injection of several millions of gallons of industrial waste fluid into the crystalline bedrock. Correlations between numbers of luminous phenomena within successive 100-km rings from the injection site and the release of seismic energy gave significant coefficients for distances as great as 400 km. Lag/lead analyses between the monthly volume of fluid injection and the monthly numbers of luminous phenomena at various distances indicated that some process was diffusing away from the injection site at a rate of 50 to 100 km/month to distances as far as 300 km. Partial correlation analyses supported the hypothesis that both the luminous phenomena and the Derby quakes were generated by the stresses evoked by the amount of fluid injection during that period. Unprecedented increases in luminous phenomena occurred before releases of strain energy that exceeded magnitudes of 1017 ergs/month.

Geopsychology and geopsychopathology: mental processes and disorders associated with geochemical and geophysical factors

Temporal and regional variations in psychological processes have been associated with three geological factors. They are geochemical profiles, geomagnetic variations, and tectonic stresses. In the geochemical domain, copper, aluminum, zinc, and lithium may influence the incidence of thought disorders such as schizophrenia and senile dementia. These common elements are found in many soils and ground water. Geomagnetic variations have been correlated with enhanced anxiety, sleep disturbances, altered moods, and greater incidences of psychiatric admissions. The effects are usually brief but pervasive. Transient and very local epidemics of bizarre and unusual behaviors are sociological phenomena that sometimes precede increases in earthquake activity within a region; they have been hypothesized to be associated with tectonic strain. Many of the contemporary correlations between geological factors and human behavior are also apparent within historical data. The effects of geophysical and geochemical factors upon human behavior are not artifactual, but they are complex and often not detected by the limited scope of most studies.

Geophysical Variables and Behavior: XXXV. Positive Correlations between Numbers of UFO Reports and Earthquake Activity in Sweden

The numbers of major UFO reports per 6-mo. increment and the numbers of earthquakes per 6-mo. increment within Sweden were calculated for the years 1963 through 1977. Symmetrical lag/lead multiple regression analyses gave a positive intermediate strength correlation (0.59) between the numbers of earthquakes per increment and the numbers of UFO reports (UFORs) during the previous increment only. These results are similar to UFOR-seismic temporal relationships that have been found in the central USA, Utah, Washington State, and Manitoba. These patterns strongly suggest a general relationship between reports of luminous phenomena, frequently labelled as UFOs, and consequent seismic activity.

Geophysical variables and behavior: XXVI. A response to Rutkowski's critique of the tectonic strain hypothesis for UFO phenomena

The tectonic strain hypothesis for many reports of UFOs (UFORs), primarily odd luminosities and metallic-looking phenomena, has been criticized on the basis of inadequate data. This reply begins with the distinction between the empirical basis for the association between UFORs and seismic activity, the hypothesis, and laboratory experiments. It is emphasized that criticisms of data should be based upon empirical criteria rather than value judgments about scientific credibility. Multivariate and bivariate analyses have indicated systematic relationships between UFORs and earthquake measures within several different areas and for different historical periods. However, the physical mechanisms for the generation of individual UFO events and their relationship to UFORs require closer examination.

Geophysical variables and behavior: XXIII. Relations between UFO reports within the Uinta Basin and local seismicity

A strong temporal correlation was found between the numbers of reports of UFOs (unidentified flying objects) and nearby seismic activity within the Uinta Basin for the year 1967. The numbers of UFO reports per month during this classic UFO flap were correlated 0.80 with the sum of the earthquake magnitudes per month for events within 150 km of the report area. Numbers of UFO reports were not correlated significantly with earthquake activity at distances greater than 150 km but less than 250 km away. The strongest correlation occurred between UFO reports and nearby seismic activity within the same month but not for previous or consequent months. Close scrutiny of daily shifts in epicenters and reports of UFOs indicate that they occurred when the locus of successive epicenters shifted across the area. These analyses were interpreted as support for the existence of strain fields whose movements generate natural phenomena that are reported as UFOs.