On the scatter in creep rupture times

Designing for the Extremes: Modeling Drivers' Response Time to Take Back Control From Automation Using Bayesian Quantile Regression

OBJECTIVE

Understanding the factors that affect drivers' response time in takeover from automation can help guide the design of vehicle systems to aid drivers. Higher quantiles of the response time distribution might indicate a higher risk of an unsuccessful takeover. Therefore, assessments of these systems should consider upper quantiles rather than focusing on the central tendency.

BACKGROUND

Drivers' responses to takeover requests can be assessed using the time it takes the driver to take over control. However, all the takeover timing studies that we could find focused on the mean response time.

METHOD

A study using an advanced driving simulator evaluated the effect of takeover request timing, event type at the onset of a takeover, and visual demand on drivers' response time. A mixed effects model was fit to the data using Bayesian quantile regression.

RESULTS

Takeover request timing, event type that precipitated the takeover, and the visual demand all affect driver response time. These factors affected the 85th percentile differently than the median. This was most evident in the revealed stopped vehicle event and conditions with a longer time budget and scenes with lower visual demand.

CONCLUSION

Because the factors affect the quantiles of the distribution differently, a focus on the mean response can misrepresent actual system performance. The 85th percentile is an important performance metric because it reveals factors that contribute to delayed responses and potentially dangerous outcomes, and it also indicates how well the system accommodates differences between drivers.