Policy functions of smoking control in Japan

Trends and Determinants of Cigarette Tax Increases in Japan: The Role of Revenue Targeting

Cigarette prices in Japan are lower than those in most other high-income countries. A more striking fact is that cigarette tax revenues have been kept almost flat at just over two trillion JPY (Japanese yen; 18.2 billion US dollars) over more than three decades, despite steadily declining cigarette sales and seemingly weakening pressure from stakeholders with a vested interest in the tobacco industry. We attempted to examine trends and determinants of cigarette tax increases in Japan. In particular, we hypothesized that the Japanese finance ministry adjusts cigarette taxes to meet a revenue target. Under this hypothesis, we searched for the most plausible amount of the minimum target of tax revenue that corresponds to cigarette tax increases over the past 37 years (1985–2021) using public data on cigarette sales and taxes. The results revealed that two trillion JPY was the minimal revenue target that could plausibly explain the increase in cigarette tax. In addition, the timing and magnitude of cigarette tax increases have been successfully set to maintain stable tax revenues. A key determinant of cigarette tax increases in Japan has been hard revenue targets, rather than public health concerns.

Decision-making under uncertainty in environmental health policy: new approaches

Decision-making in environmental health policy is a complex procedure even in well-known conditions. Thus, in the case of uncertainty, decision-making becomes a hurdle race. We address scientific uncertainty, methods to reduce uncertainty, biomedical doubt and science communication, and the role of stakeholders, activists, lobbies and media that together influence policy decisions. We also consider the major responsibility and role of the medico-scientific community in this process. This community can and should teach the principle of scientific uncertainty to all stakeholders, advise policy-makers and underline the ethical issues, considering that our brains are not only the deposit of our humanity but also the route to environmental health and societal harmony.

Self-reported tobacco smoke exposure and plasma cotinine levels during pregnancy--a validation study in Northern Japan

Maternal smoking is a critical public health concern requiring the establishment of its prevalence rate and clinical impact. Maternal self-reported information of tobacco smoke exposure requires validation using accurate biochemical analysis. This study examined the association between self-reported exposure to tobacco smoke and plasma cotinine level in Japanese pregnant women. We collected information about smoking and secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure during pregnancy from 5128 pregnant women in a prospective cohort design, and analyzed biochemically maternal blood samples using the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) technique. Based on self-reports, the subjects were classified into three groups: 650 smokers, 728 ex-smokers and 3750 non-smokers. Using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, plasma cotinine cut-off value of 11.48 ng/mL was established for separating smokers from non-smokers, resulting in a smoking prevalence of 14%. A cotinine cut-off value of 0.21 ng/mL for discriminating exposed and unexposed nonsmokers resulted in a 63% prevalence of exposure to tobacco smoke among nonsmokers. Cotinine biomarker analysis proved accurate in validating self-reported smoking information in the subjects. Lower validity of SHS exposure suggests a need to confirm questionnaire information with biochemical analysis.