The HATCH and CHA2DS2-VASc scores

Development and validation of a novel risk model for predicting atrial fibrillation recurrence risk among paroxysmal atrial fibrillation patients after the first catheter ablation

AIMS

Several models have been developed to predict the risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) recurrence after radiofrequency catheter ablation (RFCA). However, these models are of poor quality from the start. We, therefore, aimed to develop and validate a predictive model for post-operative recurrence of AF.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In a study including 433 patients undergoing the first circumferential pulmonary vein isolation (CPVI) procedure, independent predictors of AF recurrence were retrospectively identified. Using the Cox regression of designated variables, a risk model was developed in a random sample of 70% of the patients (development cohort) and validated in the remaining (validation cohort) 30%. The accuracy and discriminative power of the predictive models were evaluated in both cohorts.

RESULTS

During the established 12 months follow-up, 134 patients (31%) recurred. Six variables were identified in the model including age, coronary artery disease (CAD), heart failure (HF), hypertension, transient ischemic attack (TIA) or cerebrovascular accident (CVA), and left atrial diameter (LAD). The model showed good discriminative power in the development cohort, with an AUC of 0.77 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.69-0.86). Furthermore, the model shows good agreement between actual and predicted probabilities in the calibration curve. The above results were confirmed in the validation cohort. Meanwhile, decision curve analysis (DCA) for this model also demonstrates the advantages of clinical application.

CONCLUSION

A simple risk model to predict AF recurrence after ablation was developed and validated, showing good discriminative power and calibration.

CHA2DS2VASc score as a predictor of ablation success defined by continuous long-term monitoring

BACKGROUND

There are few reliable risk stratification tools for successful atrial fibrillation catheter ablation (AFCA) and most prior studies have used short-term external monitors to define success. CHA₂DS₂VASc score may be useful in predicting AF recurrence. We investigated whether CHA₂DS₂VASc score correlates with AFCA success as measured by continuous monitoring via cardiac implantable electronic devices (CIEDs).

METHODS

Using the Optum® de-identified Electronic Health Record dataset (01/2007 to 06/2019) linked with the Medtronic CareLink™ database, we identified patients who underwent a 1st AFCA procedure following CIED implantation. Success was defined as absence of ≥ 1 h of AF following a 3-month blanking period.

RESULTS

A total of 632 patients (age 67 ± 9.1 years, 73.3% male, CHA₂DS₂VASc 3.6 ± 1.8, 36.9% paroxysmal AF) were analyzed and included 35.1% insertable cardiac monitor, 28.8% PPM, 21.4% ICD, 13.6% CRT-D, and 1.1% CRT-P. Success at 24 months post blanking period was 40.3% (95% CI 32.6-49.7%), 36.2% (95% CI 26.9-45.4%), and 21.8% (95% CI 14.6-32.5%) for CHA₂DS₂VASc subgroups of 0-2, 3-4, and ≥ 5, respectively. Median daily burden of AF was reduced to zero regardless of CHA₂DS₂VASc score, but there were significant differences in survival free from any AF ≥ 1 h between the three CHA₂DS₂VASc subgroups (p = 0.013). Patients with a score ≥ 5 had a HR of 1.29 (95% CI 1.00-1.67) for AF recurrence compared to patients with a score of 0-2, with similar results after controlling for AF type.

CONCLUSIONS

In real-world patients with continuous monitoring undergoing AFCA, only CHA₂DS₂VASc scores ≥ 5 predicted higher AF recurrence.

Subjective assessment of complexity and prognosis after pulmonary vein isolation as significant predictor for procedural success

PURPOSE

Subjective estimation of recurrence after atrial fibrillation ablation is an important tool in clinical use. The aim of this study is to evaluate (1) if the subjective complexity of an atrial fibrillation ablation procedure is correlated with rhythm stability and (2) if the subjective prognosis of the operator has a predictive value.

METHODS

We prospectively enrolled patients admitted for ablation of atrial fibrillation. Two scores were given immediately after the procedure by the operator: the complexity and the prognosis scores. With routine follow-ups, we tried to evaluate the correlation between the subjective scores and measured outcome.

RESULTS

The study population included 611 patients (63 ± 10 years, 37% females, 61% persistent AF). During follow-up (FU) (median 24, IQR 7-36 months), recurrences occurred in 44% patients. Both scores (prognosis and complexity) correlated significantly with age, persistent AF, LA diameter, procedural characteristics, and recurrences. On multivariable analysis, complexity (OR 1.304, 95%CI 1.016-1.675, p = 0.037) and prognosis (OR 1.443, 95%CI 1.080-1.982, p = 0.013) scores remained significant predictors for arrhythmia recurrences. On ROC analysis, both scores showed significant predictive value for rhythm outcomes after catheter ablation (AUC 0.599 and 0.613, both p < 0.001 for complexity and prognosis scores, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Complexity and prognosis scores are significant predictors for arrhythmia recurrences after AF catheter ablations and even independent when competing with simple risk factors.

Predicting recurrent atrial fibrillation after catheter ablation: a systematic review of prognostic models

AIMS

We assessed the performance of modelsf (risk scores) for predicting recurrence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in patients who have undergone catheter ablation.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Systematic searches of bibliographic databases were conducted (November 2018). Studies were eligible for inclusion if they reported the development, validation, or impact assessment of a model for predicting AF recurrence after ablation. Model performance (discrimination and calibration) measures were extracted. The Prediction Study Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST) was used to assess risk of bias. Meta-analysis was not feasible due to clinical and methodological differences between studies, but c-statistics were presented in forest plots. Thirty-three studies developing or validating 13 models were included; eight studies compared two or more models. Common model variables were left atrial parameters, type of AF, and age. Model discriminatory ability was highly variable and no model had consistently poor or good performance. Most studies did not assess model calibration. The main risk of bias concern was the lack of internal validation which may have resulted in overly optimistic and/or biased model performance estimates. No model impact studies were identified.

CONCLUSION

Our systematic review suggests that clinical risk prediction of AF after ablation has potential, but there remains a need for robust evaluation of risk factors and development of risk scores.

A new predictor of atrial fibrillation after coronary artery bypass graft surgery: HATCH score

The aim of this study was to investigate the association between HATCH score and atrial fibrillation (AF) after coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery. 369 patients (103 patients with AF and 266 patients without AF) undergoing isolated CABG surgery were analyzed. Complete medical records were retrospectively collected to investigate HATCH score. The median age of patients with AF was significantly higher than the median age of non-AF group (60.8±10.0 years vs 67.8±9.5 years, P<0.001). HATCH score was significantly higher in patients who developed AF after CABG surgery than the non-AF group (P=0.017). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that HATCH score (OR 1.334; 95% CI 1.022 to 1.741, P=0.034) was an independent predictor of AF after CABG surgery. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that the cut-off point of HATCH score related to predict AF was >1 (two or more), with a sensitivity of 42% and specificity of 70%. Patients with elevated preoperative HATCH score may have higher risk for AF after CABG surgery.

CHA2 DS2 VASc score predicts unsuccessful electrical cardioversion in patients with persistent atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common arrhythmia occurring in 2% of the population. It is known that AF increases morbidity and limits quality of life. The CHA₂ DS₂ VASc score (congestive heart failure/left ventricular dysfunction, hypertension, age ≥75 (doubled), diabetes, stroke (doubled), vascular disease, age 65-74 and sex category (female)) is widely used to assess thrombotic complications. The CHA₂ DS₂ VASc score was not used until now in predicting the effectiveness of electrical cardioversion.

AIM

To assess the value of CHA₂ DS₂ VASc score in predicting unsuccessful electrical cardioversion.

METHODS

We analysed 258 consecutive patients with persistent AF who underwent electrical cardioversion between January 2012 and April 2016 in a Cardiology University Centre in Poland.

RESULTS

Out of 3500 hospitalised patients with AF, 258 (mean age 64 ± 11 years, 64% men) underwent electrical cardioversion. The CHA₂ DS₂ VASc score in analysed population (258 patients) was 2.5 ± 1.7 (range 0-8), and the HAS-BLED (hypertension, abnormal liver or renal function, stroke, bleeding, labile international normalised ratio, elderly, drugs or alcohol) was 1 ± 0.9 (range 0-4). Electrical cardioversion was unsuccessful in 12%. Factors associated with unsuccessful cardioversion were age (P = 0.0005), history of ischaemic stroke (P = 0.04), male gender (P = 0.01) and CHA₂ DS₂ VASc score (P = 0.002). The CHA₂ DS₂ VASc score in patients who had unsuccessful cardioversion was higher compared to patients who had successful cardioversion - 3.5 versus 2.4 (P = 0.001). In the logistic regression model, if the CHA₂ DS₂ VASc score increases by 1, the odds of unsuccessful cardioversion increase by 39% (odds ratio (OR) 1.39; confidence interval (CI): 1.12-1.71; P = 0.002). The odds of unsuccessful cardioversion are three times higher in patients with a CHA₂ DS₂ VASc score ≥ 2 than in patients with a CHA₂ DS₂ VASc score of 0 or 1 (OR 3.06; CI: 1.03-9.09; P = 0.044).

CONCLUSION

The CHA₂ DS₂ VASc score routinely used in thromboembolic risk assessment may be a simple, easy and reliable scoring system that can be used to predict unsuccessful electrical cardioversion.

Addition of B-Type Natriuretic Peptide to Existing Clinical Risk Scores Enhances Identification of Patients at Risk for Atrial Fibrillation Recurrence After Pulmonary Vein Isolation

INTRODUCTION

Predicting which patients will be free from atrial fibrillation (AF) after pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) remains challenging. Clinical risk prediction scores show modest ability to identify patients at risk for AF recurrence after PVI. B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) is associated with risk for incident and recurrent AF but is not currently included in existing AF risk scores. We sought to evaluate the incremental benefit of adding preoperative BNP to existing risk scores for predicting AF recurrence during the 6 months after PVI.

METHODS

One hundred sixty-one patients with paroxysmal or persistent AF underwent an index PVI procedure between 2010 and 2013; 77 patients (48%) had late AF recurrence after PVI (>3 months post-PVI) over the 6-month follow-up period.

RESULTS

A BNP greater than or equal to 100 pg/dL (P=0.01) and AF recurrence within 3 months after PVI (P<0.001) were associated with late AF recurrence in multivariate analyses. Addition of BNP to existing clinical risk scores significantly improved the areas under the curve for each score, with an integrated discrimination improvement of 0.08 (P=0.001) and a net reclassification improvement of 60% (P=0.001) for all risk scores.

CONCLUSIONS

Circulating BNP levels are independently associated with late AF recurrence after PVI. Inclusion of BNP significantly improves the discriminative ability of CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, R2CHADS2, and the HATCH score in predicting clinically significant, late AF recurrence after PVI and should be incorporated in decision-making algorithms for management of AF. B-R2CHADS2 is the best score model for prediction of late AF recurrence.

Long-term Prognosis of Paroxysmal Atrial Fibrillation and Predictors for Progression to Persistnt or Chronic Atrial Fibrillation in the Korean Population

Little is known about the long-term prognosis of or predictors for the different clinical types of atrial fibrillation (AF) in Korean populations. The aim of this study was to validate a risk stratification to assess the probability of AF progression from paroxysmal AF (PAF) to persistent AF (PeAF) or permanent AF. A total of 434 patients with PAF were consecutively enrolled (mean age; 71.7 ± 10.7 yr, 60.6% male). PeAF was defined as episodes that are sustained > 7 days and not self-terminating, while permanent AF was defined as an ongoing long-term episode. Atrial arrhythmia during follow-up was defined as atrial premature complex, atrial tachycardia, and atrial flutter. During a mean follow-up of 72.7 ± 58.3 months, 168 patients (38.7%) with PAF progressed to PeAF or permanent AF. The mean annual AF progression was 10.7% per year. In univariate analysis, age at diagnosis, body mass index, atrial arrhythmia during follow-up, left ventricular ejection fraction, concentric left ventricular hypertrophy, left atrial diameter (LAD), and severe mitral regurgitation (MR) were significantly associated with AF progression. In multivariate analysis, age at diagnosis (P = 0.009), atrial arrhythmia during follow-up (P = 0.015), LAD (P = 0.002) and MR grade (P = 0.026) were independent risk factors for AF progression. Patients with younger age at diagnosis, atrial arrhythmia during follow-up, larger left atrial chamber size, and severe MR grade are more likely to progress to PeAF or permanent AF, suggesting more intensive medical therapy with close clinical follow-up would be required in those patients.

Long-term comparison of cryoballoon and radiofrequency ablation of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation: a propensity score matched analysis

BACKGROUND

Although radiofrequency (RF) and cryoballoon (CB) based technologies for pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) have both individually been demonstrated to be effective and safe for the treatment of paroxysmal AF, head-to-head comparisons are lacking. The purpose of this study was to compare the outcome of cryoballoon versus radiofrequency ablation in patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation undergoing pulmonary vein isolation.

METHODS

Out of a prospective registry of 327 patients undergoing PVI, 208 patients (age 58±11 years, ejection fraction 59±6%, left atrial size 39±6 mm) with paroxysmal AF were identified. The presented dataset was obtained by 1:1 propensity score matching and contained 142 patients undergoing CB-PVI or RF-PVI in conjunction with a 3D mapping system, respectively. We compared single procedure efficacy of the two methods using a Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

After a mean follow-up of 28 months and a single procedure, AF recurred in 37 of 71 (52%) in the CB-PVI group and in 31 of 71 patients (44%) in the RF-PVI group (HR [95% CI]=1.19 [0.74, 1.92], p=0.48). Recurrence of AF for PVI using solely the CB was observed in 23 of 51 (45%) patients and in 23 of 51 (45%) patients in the corresponding RF-PVI group (HR [95% CI]=0.93 [0.52, 1.66], p=0.81). Complication rate was not different between the groups.

CONCLUSION

A propensity score matched comparison between CB-PVI and RF-PVI using a 3D-mapping system for AF ablation showed similar long-term success rates.