[Characterization and management of incidentally detected solitary pulmonary nodules]

LIONS PREY: A New Logistic Scoring System for the Prediction of Malignant Pulmonary Nodules

OBJECTIVES

Classifying radiologic pulmonary lesions as malignant is challenging. Scoring systems like the Mayo model lack precision in predicting the probability of malignancy. We developed the logistic scoring system 'LIONS PREY' (Lung lesION Score PREdicts malignancY), which is superior to existing models in its precision in determining the likelihood of malignancy.

METHODS

We evaluated all patients that were presented to our multidisciplinary team between January 2013 and December 2020. Availability of pathological results after resection or CT-/EBUS-guided sampling was mandatory for study inclusion. Two groups were formed: Group A (malignant nodule; n = 238) and Group B (benign nodule; n = 148). Initially, 22 potential score parameters were derived from the patients' medical histories.

RESULTS

After uni- and multivariate analysis, we identified the following eight parameters that were integrated into a scoring system: (1) age (Group A: 64.5 ± 10.2 years vs. Group B: 61.6 ± 13.8 years; multivariate p-value: 0.054); (2) nodule size (21.8 ± 7.5 mm vs. 18.3 ± 7.9 mm; p = 0.051); (3) spiculation (73.1% vs. 41.9%; p = 0.024); (4) solidity (84.9% vs. 62.8%; p = 0.004); (5) size dynamics (6.4 ± 7.7 mm/3 months vs. 0.2 ± 0.9 mm/3 months; p < 0.0001); (6) smoking history (92.0% vs. 43.9%; p < 0.0001); (7) pack years (35.1 ± 19.1 vs. 21.3 ± 18.8; p = 0.079); and (8) cancer history (34.9% vs. 24.3%; p = 0.052). Our model demonstrated superior precision to that of the Mayo score (p = 0.013) with an overall correct classification of 96.0%, a calibration (observed/expected-ratio) of 1.1, and a discrimination (ROC analysis) of AUC (95% CI) 0.94 (0.92-0.97).

CONCLUSIONS

Focusing on essential parameters, LIONS PREY can be easily and reproducibly applied based on computed tomography (CT) scans. Multidisciplinary team members could use it to facilitate decision making. Patients may find it easier to consent to surgery knowing the likelihood of pulmonary malignancy. The LIONS PREY app is available for free on Android and iOS devices.

Incidence of solitary pulmonary nodules in Northeastern France: a population-based study in five regions

Background

The discovery of a solitary pulmonary nodule (SPN) on a chest imaging exam is of major clinical concern. However, the incidence rates of SPNs in a general population have not been estimated. The objective of this study was to provide incidence estimates of SPNs in a general population in 5 northeastern regions of France.

Methods

This population-based study was undertaken in 5 regions of northeastern France in May 2002-March 2003 and May 2004-June 2005. SPNs were identified by chest CT reports collected from all radiology centres in the study area by trained readers using a standardised procedure. All reports for patients at least 18 years old, without a previous history of cancer and showing an SPN between 1 and 3 cm, were included.

Results

A total of 11,705 and 20,075 chest CT reports were collected for the 2002–2003 and 2004–2005 periods, respectively. Among them, 154 and 297 reports showing a SPN were included, respectively for each period. The age-standardised incidence rate (IR) was 10.2 per 100,000 person-years (95% confidence interval 8.5–11.9) for 2002–2003 and 12.6 (11.0–14.2) for 2004–2005. From 2002 to 2005, the age-standardised IR evolved for men from 16.4 (13.2–19.6) to 17.7 (15.0–20.4) and for women from 4.9 (3.2–6.6) to 8.2 (6.4–10.0). In multivariate Poisson regression analysis, gender, age, region and period were significantly associated with incidence variation.

Conclusions

This study provides reference incidence rates of SPN in France. Incidence was higher for men than women, increased with age for both gender and with time for women. Trends in smoking prevalence and improvement in radiological equipment may be related to incidence variations.

[Management of solid pulmonary nodules]

The increasing availability of computed tomography has meant that the number of incidentally detected solitary pulmonary nodules (SPN) has greatly increased in recent years. A reasonable management of these SPN is necessary in order to firstly be able to detect malignant lesions early on and secondly to avoid upsetting the patient unnecessarily or carrying out further stressful diagnostic procedures. This review article shows how the dignity of SPNs can be estimated and based on this how the management can be accomplished taking established guidelines into consideration.