Economical optimization of a breeding scheme by selective phenotyping of the calibration set in a multi-trait context: application to bread making quality

Genomic selection in plant breeding: Key factors shaping two decades of progress

Genomic selection, the application of genomic prediction (GP) models to select candidate individuals, has significantly advanced in the past two decades, effectively accelerating genetic gains in plant breeding. This article provides a holistic overview of key factors that have influenced GP in plant breeding during this period. We delved into the pivotal roles of training population size and genetic diversity, and their relationship with the breeding population, in determining GP accuracy. Special emphasis was placed on optimizing training population size. We explored its benefits and the associated diminishing returns beyond an optimum size. This was done while considering the balance between resource allocation and maximizing prediction accuracy through current optimization algorithms. The density and distribution of single-nucleotide polymorphisms, level of linkage disequilibrium, genetic complexity, trait heritability, statistical machine-learning methods, and non-additive effects are the other vital factors. Using wheat, maize, and potato as examples, we summarize the effect of these factors on the accuracy of GP for various traits. The search for high accuracy in GP-theoretically reaching one when using the Pearson's correlation as a metric-is an active research area as yet far from optimal for various traits. We hypothesize that with ultra-high sizes of genotypic and phenotypic datasets, effective training population optimization methods and support from other omics approaches (transcriptomics, metabolomics and proteomics) coupled with deep-learning algorithms could overcome the boundaries of current limitations to achieve the highest possible prediction accuracy, making genomic selection an effective tool in plant breeding.

Maximizing efficiency in sunflower breeding through historical data optimization

Genomic selection (GS) has become an increasingly popular tool in plant breeding programs, propelled by declining genotyping costs, an increase in computational power, and rediscovery of the best linear unbiased prediction methodology over the past two decades. This development has led to an accumulation of extensive historical datasets with genotypic and phenotypic information, triggering the question of how to best utilize these datasets. Here, we investigate whether all available data or a subset should be used to calibrate GS models for across-year predictions in a 7-year dataset of a commercial hybrid sunflower breeding program. We employed a multi-objective optimization approach to determine the ideal years to include in the training set (TRS). Next, for a given combination of TRS years, we further optimized the TRS size and its genetic composition. We developed the Min_GRM size optimization method which consistently found the optimal TRS size, reducing dimensionality by 20% with an approximately 1% loss in predictive ability. Additionally, the Tails_GEGVs algorithm displayed potential, outperforming the use of all data by using just 60% of it for grain yield, a high-complexity, low-heritability trait. Moreover, maximizing the genetic diversity of the TRS resulted in a consistent predictive ability across the entire range of genotypic values in the test set. Interestingly, the Tails_GEGVs algorithm, due to its ability to leverage heterogeneity, enhanced predictive performance for key hybrids with extreme genotypic values. Our study provides new insights into the optimal utilization of historical data in plant breeding programs, resulting in improved GS model predictive ability.

Portability of genomic predictions trained on sparse factorial designs across two maize silage breeding cycles

KEY MESSAGE

We validated the efficiency of genomic predictions calibrated on sparse factorial training sets to predict the next generation of hybrids and tested different strategies for updating predictions along generations. Genomic selection offers new prospects for revisiting hybrid breeding schemes by replacing extensive phenotyping of individuals with genomic predictions. Finding the ideal design for training genomic prediction models is still an open question. Previous studies have shown promising predictive abilities using sparse factorial instead of tester-based training sets to predict single-cross hybrids from the same generation. This study aims to further investigate the use of factorials and their optimization to predict line general combining abilities (GCAs) and hybrid values across breeding cycles. It relies on two breeding cycles of a maize reciprocal genomic selection scheme involving multiparental connected reciprocal populations from flint and dent complementary heterotic groups selected for silage performances. Selection based on genomic predictions trained on a factorial design resulted in a significant genetic gain for dry matter yield in the new generation. Results confirmed the efficiency of sparse factorial training sets to predict candidate line GCAs and hybrid values across breeding cycles. Compared to a previous study based on the first generation, the advantage of factorial over tester training sets appeared lower across generations. Updating factorial training sets by adding single-cross hybrids between selected lines from the previous generation or a random subset of hybrids from the new generation both improved predictive abilities. The CDmean criterion helped determine the set of single-crosses to phenotype to update the training set efficiently. Our results validated the efficiency of sparse factorial designs for calibrating hybrid genomic prediction experimentally and showed the benefit of updating it along generations.

Genomic prediction for agronomic traits in a diverse Flax (Linum usitatissimum L.) germplasm collection

Breeding programs require exhaustive phenotyping of germplasms, which is time-demanding and expensive. Genomic prediction helps breeders harness the diversity of any collection to bypass phenotyping. Here, we examined the genomic prediction's potential for seed yield and nine agronomic traits using 26,171 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers in a set of 337 flax (Linum usitatissimum L.) germplasm, phenotyped in five environments. We evaluated 14 prediction models and several factors affecting predictive ability based on cross-validation schemes. Models yielded significant variation among predictive ability values across traits for the whole marker set. The ridge regression (RR) model covering additive gene action yielded better predictive ability for most of the traits, whereas it was higher for low heritable traits by models capturing epistatic gene action. Marker subsets based on linkage disequilibrium decay distance gave significantly higher predictive abilities to the whole marker set, but for randomly selected markers, it reached a plateau above 3000 markers. Markers having significant association with traits improved predictive abilities compared to the whole marker set when marker selection was made on the whole population instead of the training set indicating a clear overfitting. The correction for population structure did not increase predictive abilities compared to the whole collection. However, stratified sampling by picking representative genotypes from each cluster improved predictive abilities. The indirect predictive ability for a trait was proportionate to its correlation with other traits. These results will help breeders to select the best models, optimum marker set, and suitable genotype set to perform an indirect selection for quantitative traits in this diverse flax germplasm collection.

Comparison of genomic-enabled cross selection criteria for the improvement of inbred line breeding populations

A crucial step in inbred plant breeding is the choice of mating design to derive high-performing inbred varieties while also maintaining a competitive breeding population to secure sufficient genetic gain in future generations. In practice, the mating design usually relies on crosses involving the best parental inbred lines to ensure high mean progeny performance. This excludes crosses involving lower performing but more complementary parents in terms of favorable alleles. We predicted the ability of crosses to produce putative outstanding progenies (high mean and high variance progeny distribution) using genomic prediction models. This study compared the benefits and drawbacks of 7 genomic cross selection criteria (CSC) in terms of genetic gain for 1 trait and genetic diversity in the next generation. Six CSC were already published, and we propose an improved CSC that can estimate the proportion of progeny above a threshold defined for the whole mating plan. We simulated mating designs optimized using different CSC. The 835 elite parents came from a real breeding program and were evaluated between 2000 and 2016. We applied constraints on parental contributions and genetic similarities between selected parents according to usual breeder practices. Our results showed that CSC based on progeny variance estimation increased the genetic value of superior progenies by up to 5% in the next generation compared to CSC based on the progeny mean estimation (i.e. parental genetic values) alone. It also increased the genetic gain (up to 4%) and/or maintained more genetic diversity at QTLs (up to 4% more genic variance when the marker effects were perfectly estimated).

A comparison of methods for training population optimization in genomic selection

Maximizing CDmean and Avg_GRM_self were the best criteria for training set optimization. A training set size of 50-55% (targeted) or 65-85% (untargeted) is needed to obtain 95% of the accuracy.  With the advent of genomic selection (GS) as a widespread breeding tool, mechanisms to efficiently design an optimal training set for GS models became more relevant, since they allow maximizing the accuracy while minimizing the phenotyping costs. The literature described many training set optimization methods, but there is a lack of a comprehensive comparison among them. This work aimed to provide an extensive benchmark among optimization methods and optimal training set size by testing a wide range of them in seven datasets, six different species, different genetic architectures, population structure, heritabilities, and with several GS models to provide some guidelines about their application in breeding programs. Our results showed that targeted optimization (uses information from the test set) performed better than untargeted (does not use test set data), especially when heritability was low. The mean coefficient of determination was the best targeted method, although it was computationally intensive. Minimizing the average relationship within the training set was the best strategy for untargeted optimization. Regarding the optimal training set size, maximum accuracy was obtained when the training set was the entire candidate set. Nevertheless, a 50-55% of the candidate set was enough to reach 95-100% of the maximum accuracy in the targeted scenario, while we needed a 65-85% for untargeted optimization. Our results also suggested that a diverse training set makes GS robust against population structure, while including clustering information was less effective. The choice of the GS model did not have a significant influence on the prediction accuracies.

Building a Calibration Set for Genomic Prediction, Characteristics to Be Considered, and Optimization Approaches

The efficiency of genomic selection strongly depends on the prediction accuracy of the genetic merit of candidates. Numerous papers have shown that the composition of the calibration set is a key contributor to prediction accuracy. A poorly defined calibration set can result in low accuracies, whereas an optimized one can considerably increase accuracy compared to random sampling, for a same size. Alternatively, optimizing the calibration set can be a way of decreasing the costs of phenotyping by enabling similar levels of accuracy compared to random sampling but with fewer phenotypic units. We present here the different factors that have to be considered when designing a calibration set, and review the different criteria proposed in the literature. We classified these criteria into two groups: model-free criteria based on relatedness, and criteria derived from the linear mixed model. We introduce criteria targeting specific prediction objectives including the prediction of highly diverse panels, biparental families, or hybrids. We also review different ways of updating the calibration set, and different procedures for optimizing phenotyping experimental designs.

Phenomic selection in wheat breeding: identification and optimisation of factors influencing prediction accuracy and comparison to genomic selection

Phenomic selection is a promising alternative or complement to genomic selection in wheat breeding. Models combining spectra from different environments maximise the predictive ability of grain yield and heading date of wheat breeding lines. Phenomic selection (PS) is a recent breeding approach similar to genomic selection (GS) except that genotyping is replaced by near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy. PS can potentially account for non-additive effects and has the major advantage of being low cost and high throughput. Factors influencing GS predictive abilities have been intensively studied, but little is known about PS. We tested and compared the abilities of PS and GS to predict grain yield and heading date from several datasets of bread wheat lines corresponding to the first or second years of trial evaluation from two breeding companies and one research institute in France. We evaluated several factors affecting PS predictive abilities including the possibility of combining spectra collected in different environments. A simple H-BLUP model predicted both traits with prediction ability from 0.26 to 0.62 and with an efficient computation time. Our results showed that the environments in which lines are grown had a crucial impact on predictive ability based on the spectra acquired and was specific to the trait considered. Models combining NIR spectra from different environments were the best PS models and were at least as accurate as GS in most of the datasets. Furthermore, a GH-BLUP model combining genotyping and NIR spectra was the best model of all (prediction ability from 0.31 to 0.73). We demonstrated also that as for GS, the size and the composition of the training set have a crucial impact on predictive ability. PS could therefore replace or complement GS for efficient wheat breeding programs.

Assessment of genomic prediction reliability and optimization of experimental designs in multi-environment trials

New forms of the coefficient of determination can help to forecast the accuracy of genomic prediction and optimize experimental designs in multi-environment trials with genotype-by-environment interactions. In multi-environment trials, the relative performance of genotypes may vary depending on the environmental conditions, and this phenomenon is commonly referred to as genotype-by-environment interaction (G[Formula: see text]E). With genomic prediction, G[Formula: see text]E can be accounted for by modeling the genetic covariance between trials, even when the overall experimental design is highly unbalanced between trials, thanks to the genomic relationship between genotypes. In this study, we propose new forms of the coefficient of determination (CD, i.e., the expected model-based square correlation between a genetic value and its corresponding prediction) that can be used to forecast the genomic prediction reliability of genotypes, both for their trial-specific performance and their mean performance. As the expected prediction reliability based on these new CD criteria is generally a good approximation of the observed reliability, we demonstrate that they can be used to optimize multi-environment trials in the presence of G[Formula: see text]E. In addition, this reliability may be highly variable between genotypes, especially in unbalanced designs with complex pedigree relationships between genotypes. Therefore, it can be useful for breeders to assess it before selecting genotypes based on their predicted genetic values. Using a wheat population evaluated both for simulated and phenology traits, and two maize populations evaluated for grain yield, we illustrate this approach and confirm the value of our new CD criteria.

Prospectus of Genomic Selection and Phenomics in Cereal, Legume and Oilseed Breeding Programs

The last decade witnessed an unprecedented increase in the adoption of genomic selection (GS) and phenomics tools in plant breeding programs, especially in major cereal crops. GS has demonstrated the potential for selecting superior genotypes with high precision and accelerating the breeding cycle. Phenomics is a rapidly advancing domain to alleviate phenotyping bottlenecks and explores new large-scale phenotyping and data acquisition methods. In this review, we discuss the lesson learned from GS and phenomics in six self-pollinated crops, primarily focusing on rice, wheat, soybean, common bean, chickpea, and groundnut, and their implementation schemes are discussed after assessing their impact in the breeding programs. Here, the status of the adoption of genomics and phenomics is provided for those crops, with a complete GS overview. GS’s progress until 2020 is discussed in detail, and relevant information and links to the source codes are provided for implementing this technology into plant breeding programs, with most of the examples from wheat breeding programs. Detailed information about various phenotyping tools is provided to strengthen the field of phenomics for a plant breeder in the coming years. Finally, we highlight the benefits of merging genomic selection, phenomics, and machine and deep learning that have resulted in extraordinary results during recent years in wheat, rice, and soybean. Hence, there is a potential for adopting these technologies into crops like the common bean, chickpea, and groundnut. The adoption of phenomics and GS into different breeding programs will accelerate genetic gain that would create an impact on food security, realizing the need to feed an ever-growing population.

Breeding for Economically and Environmentally Sustainable Wheat Varieties: An Integrated Approach from Genomics to Selection

There is currently a strong societal demand for sustainability, quality, and safety in bread wheat production. To address these challenges, new and innovative knowledge, resources, tools, and methods to facilitate breeding are needed. This starts with the development of high throughput genomic tools including single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) arrays, high density molecular marker maps, and full genome sequences. Such powerful tools are essential to perform genome-wide association studies (GWAS), to implement genomic and phenomic selection, and to characterize the worldwide diversity. This is also useful to breeders to broaden the genetic basis of elite varieties through the introduction of novel sources of genetic diversity. Improvement in varieties particularly relies on the detection of genomic regions involved in agronomical traits including tolerance to biotic (diseases and pests) and abiotic (drought, nutrient deficiency, high temperature) stresses. When enough resolution is achieved, this can result in the identification of candidate genes that could further be characterized to identify relevant alleles. Breeding must also now be approached through in silico modeling to simulate plant development, investigate genotype × environment interactions, and introduce marker-trait linkage information in the models to better implement genomic selection. Breeders must be aware of new developments and the information must be made available to the world wheat community to develop new high-yielding varieties that can meet the challenge of higher wheat production in a sustainable and fluctuating agricultural context. In this review, we compiled all knowledge and tools produced during the BREEDWHEAT project to show how they may contribute to face this challenge in the coming years.

Genomic Prediction: Progress and Perspectives for Rice Improvement

Genomic prediction can be a powerful tool to achieve greater rates of genetic gain for quantitative traits if thoroughly integrated into a breeding strategy. In rice as in other crops, the interest in genomic prediction is very strong with a number of studies addressing multiple aspects of its use, ranging from the more conceptual to the more practical. In this chapter, we review the literature on rice (Oryza sativa) and summarize important considerations for the integration of genomic prediction in breeding programs. The irrigated breeding program at the International Rice Research Institute is used as a concrete example on which we provide data and R scripts to reproduce the analysis but also to highlight practical challenges regarding the use of predictions. The adage "To someone with a hammer, everything looks like a nail" describes a common psychological pitfall that sometimes plagues the integration and application of new technologies to a discipline. We have designed this chapter to help rice breeders avoid that pitfall and appreciate the benefits and limitations of applying genomic prediction, as it is not always the best approach nor the first step to increasing the rate of genetic gain in every context.

Genome and Environment Based Prediction Models and Methods of Complex Traits Incorporating Genotype × Environment Interaction

Genomic-enabled prediction models are of paramount importance for the successful implementation of genomic selection (GS) based on breeding values. As opposed to animal breeding, plant breeding includes extensive multienvironment and multiyear field trial data. Hence, genomic-enabled prediction models should include genotype × environment (G × E) interaction, which most of the time increases the prediction performance when the response of lines are different from environment to environment. In this chapter, we describe a historical timeline since 2012 related to advances of the GS models that take into account G × E interaction. We describe theoretical and practical aspects of those GS models, including the gains in prediction performance when including G × E structures for both complex continuous and categorical scale traits. Then, we detailed and explained the main G × E genomic prediction models for complex traits measured in continuous and noncontinuous (categorical) scale. Related to G × E interaction models this review also examine the analyses of the information generated with high-throughput phenotype data (phenomic) and the joint analyses of multitrait and multienvironment field trial data that is also employed in the general assessment of multitrait G × E interaction. The inclusion of nongenomic data in increasing the accuracy and biological reliability of the G × E approach is also outlined. We show the recent advances in large-scale envirotyping (enviromics), and how the use of mechanistic computational modeling can derive the crop growth and development aspects useful for predicting phenotypes and explaining G × E.

Genomic selection of parents and crosses beyond the native gene pool of a breeding program

Genomic selection has become a valuable tool for selecting cultivar candidates in many plant breeding programs. Genomic selection of elite parents and crossing combinations with germplasm developed outside a breeding program has, however, hardly been explored until now. The aim of this study was to assess the potential of this method for commonly ranking and selecting elite germplasm developed within and beyond a given breeding program. A winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) population consisting of 611 in-house and 87 externally developed lines was used to compare training population compositions and statistical models for genomically predicting baking quality in this framework. Augmenting training populations with lines from other breeding programs had a larger influence on the prediction ability than adding in-house generated lines when aiming to commonly rank both germplasm sets. Exploiting preexisting information of secondary correlated traits resulted likewise in more accurate predictions both in empirical analyses and simulations. Genotyping germplasm developed beyond a given breeding program is moreover a convenient way to clarify its relationships with a breeder's own germplasm because pedigree information is oftentimes not available for this purpose. Genomic predictions can thus support a more informed diversity management, especially when integrating simply to phenotype correlated traits to partly circumvent resource reallocations for a costly phenotyping of germplasm from other programs.

Development of a highly efficient ion-ozone cavitation technology for accelerated bread production

The bakery market is one of the most capacious in Kazakhstan. Manufacturers of bread products are in dire need of the introduction of intensive technologies for improving product quality and safety. This article presents the results of research to develop technology for accelerated production of bread with ion-ozone cavitation treatment. The influence of various modes of exposure to ion-ozone cavitation has been investigated. After baking, bread samples were examined for organoleptic, physicochemical, rheological and microbiological indicators. The optimal method is treatment with ion-ozone at a concentration of 0.0025 units/mg, at a pressure of 1.0 atm for 1 min. As a result, it was proved that this mode accelerates the process of obtaining dough and shortens the fermentation time, and baking bread increases the qualitative and quantitative indicators according to the control method. The results showed that the ion-ozone technology reduces the length of the process of making dough and bread by three times compared to traditional technologies. The developed products with existing analogues in the Kazakhstan market will differ due to their high taste and consumer properties, product safety, long shelf life and low cost.

Training Set Optimization for Sparse Phenotyping in Genomic Selection: A Conceptual Overview

Genomic selection (GS) is becoming an essential tool in breeding programs due to its role in increasing genetic gain per unit time. The design of the training set (TRS) in GS is one of the key steps in the implementation of GS in plant and animal breeding programs mainly because (i) TRS optimization is critical for the efficiency and effectiveness of GS, (ii) breeders test genotypes in multi-year and multi-location trials to select the best-performing ones. In this framework, TRS optimization can help to decrease the number of genotypes to be tested and, therefore, reduce phenotyping cost and time, and (iii) we can obtain better prediction accuracies from optimally selected TRS than an arbitrary TRS. Here, we concentrate the efforts on reviewing the lessons learned from TRS optimization studies and their impact on crop breeding and discuss important features for the success of TRS optimization under different scenarios. In this article, we review the lessons learned from training population optimization in plants and the major challenges associated with the optimization of GS including population size, the relationship between training and test set (TS), update of TRS, and the use of different packages and algorithms for TRS implementation in GS. Finally, we describe general guidelines to improving the rate of genetic improvement by maximizing the use of the TRS optimization in the GS framework.

Genotyping crossing parents and family bulks can facilitate cost-efficient genomic prediction strategies in small-scale line breeding programs

Genomic relationship matrices based on mid-parent and family bulk genotypes represent cost-efficient alternatives to full genomic prediction approaches with individually genotyped early generation selection candidates. The routine usage of genomic selection for improving line varieties has gained an increasing popularity in recent years. Harnessing the benefits of this approach can, however, be too costly for many small-scale breeding programs, as in most genomic breeding strategies several hundred or even thousands of lines have to be genotyped each year. The aim of this study was thus to compare a full genomic prediction strategy using individually genotyped selection candidates with genomic predictions based on genotypes obtained from pooled DNA of progeny families as well as genotypes inferred from crossing parents. A population of 722 wheat lines representing 63 families tested in more than 100 multi-environment trials during 2010-2019 was for this purpose employed to conduct an empirical study, which was supplemented by a simulation with genotypic data from further 3855 lines. A similar or higher prediction ability was achieved for grain yield, protein yield, and the protein content when using mid-parent or family bulk genotypes in comparison with pedigree selection in the empirical across family prediction scenario. The difference of these methods with a full genomic prediction strategy became furthermore marginal if pre-existing phenotypic data of the selection candidates was already available. Similar observations were made in the simulation, where the usage of individually genotyped lines or family bulks was generally preferable with smaller family sizes. The proposed methods can thus be regarded as alternatives to full genomic or pedigree selection strategies, especially when pedigree information is limited like in the exchange of germplasm between breeding programs.

Favorable Conditions for Genomic Evaluation to Outperform Classical Pedigree Evaluation Highlighted by a Proof-of-Concept Study in Poplar

Forest trees like poplar are particular in many ways compared to other domesticated species. They have long juvenile phases, ongoing crop-wild gene flow, extensive outcrossing, and slow growth. All these particularities tend to make the conduction of breeding programs and evaluation stages costly both in time and resources. Perennials like trees are therefore good candidates for the implementation of genomic selection (GS) which is a good way to accelerate the breeding process, by unchaining selection from phenotypic evaluation without affecting precision. In this study, we tried to compare GS to pedigree-based traditional evaluation, and evaluated under which conditions genomic evaluation outperforms classical pedigree evaluation. Several conditions were evaluated as the constitution of the training population by cross-validation, the implementation of multi-trait, single trait, additive and non-additive models with different estimation methods (G-BLUP or weighted G-BLUP). Finally, the impact of the marker densification was tested through four marker density sets. The population under study corresponds to a pedigree of 24 parents and 1,011 offspring, structured into 35 full-sib families. Four evaluation batches were planted in the same location and seven traits were evaluated on 1 and 2 years old trees. The quality of prediction was reported by the accuracy, the Spearman rank correlation and prediction bias and tested with a cross-validation and an independent individual test set. Our results show that genomic evaluation performance could be comparable to the already well-optimized pedigree-based evaluation under certain conditions. Genomic evaluation appeared to be advantageous when using an independent test set and a set of less precise phenotypes. Genome-based methods showed advantages over pedigree counterparts when ranking candidates at the within-family levels, for most of the families. Our study also showed that looking at ranking criteria as Spearman rank correlation can reveal benefits to genomic selection hidden by biased predictions.