Assessment of genomic prediction reliability and optimization of experimental designs in multi-environment trials

Revisiting superiority and stability metrics of cultivar performances using genomic data: derivations of new estimators

The selection of highly productive genotypes with stable performance across environments is a major challenge of plant breeding programs due to genotype-by-environment (GE) interactions. Over the years, different metrics have been proposed that aim at characterizing the superiority and/or stability of genotype performance across environments. However, these metrics are traditionally estimated using phenotypic values only and are not well suited to an unbalanced design in which genotypes are not observed in all environments. The objective of this research was to propose and evaluate new estimators of the following GE metrics: Ecovalence, Environmental Variance, Finlay-Wilkinson regression coefficient, and Lin-Binns superiority measure. Drawing from a multi-environment genomic prediction model, we derived the best linear unbiased prediction for each GE metric. These derivations included both a squared expectation and a variance term. To assess the effectiveness of our new estimators, we conducted simulations that varied in traits and environment parameters. In our results, new estimators consistently outperformed traditional phenotype-based estimators in terms of accuracy. By incorporating a variance term into our new estimators, in addition to the squared expectation term, we were able to improve the precision of our estimates, particularly for Ecovalence in situations where heritability was low and/or sparseness was high. All methods are implemented in a new R-package: GEmetrics. These genomic-based estimators enable estimating GE metrics in unbalanced designs and predicting GE metrics for new genotypes, which should help improve the selection efficiency of high-performance and stable genotypes across environments.

Genomic selection in plant breeding: Key factors shaping two decades of progress

Genomic selection, the application of genomic prediction (GP) models to select candidate individuals, has significantly advanced in the past two decades, effectively accelerating genetic gains in plant breeding. This article provides a holistic overview of key factors that have influenced GP in plant breeding during this period. We delved into the pivotal roles of training population size and genetic diversity, and their relationship with the breeding population, in determining GP accuracy. Special emphasis was placed on optimizing training population size. We explored its benefits and the associated diminishing returns beyond an optimum size. This was done while considering the balance between resource allocation and maximizing prediction accuracy through current optimization algorithms. The density and distribution of single-nucleotide polymorphisms, level of linkage disequilibrium, genetic complexity, trait heritability, statistical machine-learning methods, and non-additive effects are the other vital factors. Using wheat, maize, and potato as examples, we summarize the effect of these factors on the accuracy of GP for various traits. The search for high accuracy in GP-theoretically reaching one when using the Pearson's correlation as a metric-is an active research area as yet far from optimal for various traits. We hypothesize that with ultra-high sizes of genotypic and phenotypic datasets, effective training population optimization methods and support from other omics approaches (transcriptomics, metabolomics and proteomics) coupled with deep-learning algorithms could overcome the boundaries of current limitations to achieve the highest possible prediction accuracy, making genomic selection an effective tool in plant breeding.

Portability of genomic predictions trained on sparse factorial designs across two maize silage breeding cycles

KEY MESSAGE

We validated the efficiency of genomic predictions calibrated on sparse factorial training sets to predict the next generation of hybrids and tested different strategies for updating predictions along generations. Genomic selection offers new prospects for revisiting hybrid breeding schemes by replacing extensive phenotyping of individuals with genomic predictions. Finding the ideal design for training genomic prediction models is still an open question. Previous studies have shown promising predictive abilities using sparse factorial instead of tester-based training sets to predict single-cross hybrids from the same generation. This study aims to further investigate the use of factorials and their optimization to predict line general combining abilities (GCAs) and hybrid values across breeding cycles. It relies on two breeding cycles of a maize reciprocal genomic selection scheme involving multiparental connected reciprocal populations from flint and dent complementary heterotic groups selected for silage performances. Selection based on genomic predictions trained on a factorial design resulted in a significant genetic gain for dry matter yield in the new generation. Results confirmed the efficiency of sparse factorial training sets to predict candidate line GCAs and hybrid values across breeding cycles. Compared to a previous study based on the first generation, the advantage of factorial over tester training sets appeared lower across generations. Updating factorial training sets by adding single-cross hybrids between selected lines from the previous generation or a random subset of hybrids from the new generation both improved predictive abilities. The CDmean criterion helped determine the set of single-crosses to phenotype to update the training set efficiently. Our results validated the efficiency of sparse factorial designs for calibrating hybrid genomic prediction experimentally and showed the benefit of updating it along generations.

Multi-Omics Pipeline and Omics-Integration Approach to Decipher Plant's Abiotic Stress Tolerance Responses

The present day's ongoing global warming and climate change adversely affect plants through imposing environmental (abiotic) stresses and disease pressure. The major abiotic factors such as drought, heat, cold, salinity, etc., hamper a plant's innate growth and development, resulting in reduced yield and quality, with the possibility of undesired traits. In the 21st century, the advent of high-throughput sequencing tools, state-of-the-art biotechnological techniques and bioinformatic analyzing pipelines led to the easy characterization of plant traits for abiotic stress response and tolerance mechanisms by applying the 'omics' toolbox. Panomics pipeline including genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, metabolomics, epigenomics, proteogenomics, interactomics, ionomics, phenomics, etc., have become very handy nowadays. This is important to produce climate-smart future crops with a proper understanding of the molecular mechanisms of abiotic stress responses by the plant's genes, transcripts, proteins, epigenome, cellular metabolic circuits and resultant phenotype. Instead of mono-omics, two or more (hence 'multi-omics') integrated-omics approaches can decipher the plant's abiotic stress tolerance response very well. Multi-omics-characterized plants can be used as potent genetic resources to incorporate into the future breeding program. For the practical utility of crop improvement, multi-omics approaches for particular abiotic stress tolerance can be combined with genome-assisted breeding (GAB) by being pyramided with improved crop yield, food quality and associated agronomic traits and can open a new era of omics-assisted breeding. Thus, multi-omics pipelines together are able to decipher molecular processes, biomarkers, targets for genetic engineering, regulatory networks and precision agriculture solutions for a crop's variable abiotic stress tolerance to ensure food security under changing environmental circumstances.

Sample size determination for training set optimization in genomic prediction

A practical approach is developed to determine a cost-effective optimal training set for selective phenotyping in a genomic prediction study. An R function is provided to facilitate the application of the approach. Genomic prediction (GP) is a statistical method used to select quantitative traits in animal or plant breeding. For this purpose, a statistical prediction model is first built that uses phenotypic and genotypic data in a training set. The trained model is then used to predict genomic estimated breeding values (GEBVs) for individuals within a breeding population. Setting the sample size of the training set usually takes into account time and space constraints that are inevitable in an agricultural experiment. However, the determination of the sample size remains an unresolved issue for a GP study. By applying the logistic growth curve to identify prediction accuracy for the GEBVs and the training set size, a practical approach was developed to determine a cost-effective optimal training set for a given genome dataset with known genotypic data. Three real genome datasets were used to illustrate the proposed approach. An R function is provided to facilitate widespread application of this approach to sample size determination, which can help breeders to identify a set of genotypes with an economical sample size for selective phenotyping.

A comparison of methods for training population optimization in genomic selection

Maximizing CDmean and Avg_GRM_self were the best criteria for training set optimization. A training set size of 50-55% (targeted) or 65-85% (untargeted) is needed to obtain 95% of the accuracy.  With the advent of genomic selection (GS) as a widespread breeding tool, mechanisms to efficiently design an optimal training set for GS models became more relevant, since they allow maximizing the accuracy while minimizing the phenotyping costs. The literature described many training set optimization methods, but there is a lack of a comprehensive comparison among them. This work aimed to provide an extensive benchmark among optimization methods and optimal training set size by testing a wide range of them in seven datasets, six different species, different genetic architectures, population structure, heritabilities, and with several GS models to provide some guidelines about their application in breeding programs. Our results showed that targeted optimization (uses information from the test set) performed better than untargeted (does not use test set data), especially when heritability was low. The mean coefficient of determination was the best targeted method, although it was computationally intensive. Minimizing the average relationship within the training set was the best strategy for untargeted optimization. Regarding the optimal training set size, maximum accuracy was obtained when the training set was the entire candidate set. Nevertheless, a 50-55% of the candidate set was enough to reach 95-100% of the maximum accuracy in the targeted scenario, while we needed a 65-85% for untargeted optimization. Our results also suggested that a diverse training set makes GS robust against population structure, while including clustering information was less effective. The choice of the GS model did not have a significant influence on the prediction accuracies.

Building a Calibration Set for Genomic Prediction, Characteristics to Be Considered, and Optimization Approaches

The efficiency of genomic selection strongly depends on the prediction accuracy of the genetic merit of candidates. Numerous papers have shown that the composition of the calibration set is a key contributor to prediction accuracy. A poorly defined calibration set can result in low accuracies, whereas an optimized one can considerably increase accuracy compared to random sampling, for a same size. Alternatively, optimizing the calibration set can be a way of decreasing the costs of phenotyping by enabling similar levels of accuracy compared to random sampling but with fewer phenotypic units. We present here the different factors that have to be considered when designing a calibration set, and review the different criteria proposed in the literature. We classified these criteria into two groups: model-free criteria based on relatedness, and criteria derived from the linear mixed model. We introduce criteria targeting specific prediction objectives including the prediction of highly diverse panels, biparental families, or hybrids. We also review different ways of updating the calibration set, and different procedures for optimizing phenotyping experimental designs.