Effects of systematic data reduction on trend estimation from German registration trials

A framework for simulating genotype-by-environment interaction using multiplicative models

KEY MESSAGE

The simulation of genotype-by-environment interaction using multiplicative models provides a general and scalable framework to generate realistic multi-environment datasets and model plant breeding programmes. Plant breeding has been historically shaped by genotype-by-environment interaction (GEI). Despite its importance, however, many current simulations do not adequately capture the complexity of GEI inherent to plant breeding. The framework developed in this paper simulates GEI with desirable structure using multiplicative models. The framework can be used to simulate a hypothetical target population of environments (TPE), from which many different multi-environment trial (MET) datasets can be sampled. Measures of variance explained and expected accuracy are developed to tune the simulation of non-crossover and crossover GEI and quantify the MET-TPE alignment. The framework has been implemented within the R package FieldSimR, and is demonstrated here using two working examples supported by R code. The first example embeds the framework into a linear mixed model to generate MET datasets with low, moderate and high GEI, which are used to compare several popular statistical models applied to plant breeding. The prediction accuracy generally increases as the level of GEI decreases or the number of environments sampled in the MET increases. The second example integrates the framework into a breeding programme simulation to compare genomic and phenotypic selection strategies over time. Genomic selection outperforms phenotypic selection by ∼ 50-70% in the TPE, depending on the level of GEI. These examples demonstrate how the new framework can be used to generate realistic MET datasets and model plant breeding programmes that better reflect the complexity of real-world settings, making it a valuable tool for optimising a wide range of breeding methodologies.

Breeding progress of nitrogen use efficiency of cereal crops, winter oilseed rape and peas in long-term variety trials

KEY MESSAGE

Grain yield and NUE increased over time while nitrogen yield did not drop significantly despite reduced nitrogen input. Selection for grain and nitrogen yield is equivalent to selection for NUE. Breeding and registration of improved varieties with high yield, processing quality, disease resistance and nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) are of utmost importance for sustainable crop production to minimize adverse environmental impact and contribute to food security. Based on long-term variety trials of cereals, winter oilseed rape and grain peas tested across a wide range of environmental conditions in Germany, we quantified long-term breeding progress for NUE and related traits. We estimated the genotypic, environmental and genotype-by-environment interaction variation and correlation between traits and derived heritability coefficients. Nitrogen fertilizer application was considerably reduced between 1995 and 2021 in the range of 5.4% for winter wheat and 28.9% for spring wheat while for spring barley it was increased by 20.9%. Despite the apparent nitrogen reduction for most crops, grain yield (GYLD) and nitrogen accumulation in grain (NYLD) was increased or did not significantly decrease. NUE for GYLD increased significantly for all crops between 12.8% and 35.2% and for NYLD between 8% and 20.7%. We further showed that the genotypic rank of varieties for GYLD and NYLD was about equivalent to the genotypic rank of the corresponding traits of NUE, if all varieties in a trial were treated with the same nitrogen rate. Heritability of nitrogen yield was about the same as that of grain yield, suggesting that nitrogen yield should be considered as an additional criterion for variety testing to increase NUE and reduce negative environmental impact.

Models to estimate genetic gain of soybean seed yield from annual multi-environment field trials

KEY MESSAGE

Simulations demonstrated that estimates of realized genetic gain from linear mixed models using regional trials are biased to some degree. Thus, we recommend multiple selected models to obtain a range of reasonable estimates. Genetic improvements of discrete characteristics are obvious and easy to demonstrate, while quantitative traits require reliable and accurate methods to disentangle the confounding genetic and non-genetic components. Stochastic simulations of soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] breeding programs were performed to evaluate linear mixed models to estimate the realized genetic gain (RGG) from annual multi-environment trials (MET). True breeding values were simulated under an infinitesimal model to represent the genetic contributions to soybean seed yield under various MET conditions. Estimators were evaluated using objective criteria of bias and linearity. Covariance modeling and direct versus indirect estimation-based models resulted in a substantial range of estimated values, all of which were biased to some degree. Although no models produced unbiased estimates, the three best-performing models resulted in an average bias of [Formula: see text] kg/ha[Formula: see text]/yr[Formula: see text] ([Formula: see text] bu/ac[Formula: see text]/yr[Formula: see text]). Rather than relying on a single model to estimate RGG, we recommend the application of several models with minimal and directional bias. Further, based on the parameters used in the simulations, we do not think it is appropriate to use any single model to compare breeding programs or quantify the efficiency of proposed new breeding strategies. Lastly, for public soybean programs breeding for maturity groups II and III in North America, the estimated RGG values ranged from 18.16 to 39.68 kg/ha[Formula: see text]/yr[Formula: see text] (0.27-0.59 bu/ac[Formula: see text]/yr[Formula: see text]) from 1989 to 2019. These results provide strong evidence that public breeders have significantly improved soybean germplasm for seed yield in the primary production areas of North America.