Determinants of time to death in hospital in critically ill patients around the world

Critically ill patients with high predicted mortality: Incidence and outcome

OBJECTIVE

As calculated by the severity scores, an unknown number of patients are admitted to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) with a very high risk of death. Clinical studies have poorly addressed this population, and their prognosis is largely unknown.

DESIGN

Post hoc analysis of a multicenter, cohort, longitudinal, observational, retrospective study (CIMbA).

SETTING

Sixteen Portuguese multipurpose ICUs.

PATIENTS

Patients with a Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II) predicted hospital mortality above 80% on admission to the ICU (high-risk group); A comparison with the remaining patients was obtained.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MAIN VARIABLES OF INTEREST

Hospital, 30 days, 1 year mortality.

RESULTS

We identified 4546 patients (59.9% male), 12.2% of the whole population. Their SAPS II predicted hospital mortality was 89.0±5.8%, whilst the observed mortality was lower, 61.0%. This group had higher mortality, both during the first 30 days (aHR 3.52 [95% CI 3.34-3.71]) and from day 31 to day 365 after ICU admission (aHR 1.14 [95%CI 1.04-1.26]), respectively. However, their hospital standardized mortality ratio was similar to the other patients (0.69 vs. 0.69, P=.92). At one year of follow-up, 30% of patients in the high-risk group were alive.

CONCLUSIONS

Roughly 12% of patients admitted to the ICU for more than 24h had a SAPS II score predicted mortality above 80%. Their hospital standardized mortality was similar to the less severe population and 30% were alive after one year of follow-up.

Ethisch begründet entscheiden in der Intensivmedizin

The process recommendations of the Ethics Section of the German Interdisciplinary Association for Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine (DIVI) for ethically based decision-making in intensive care medicine are intended to create the framework for a structured procedure for seriously ill patients in intensive care. The processes require appropriate structures, e.g., for effective communication within the treatment team, with patients and relatives, legal representatives, as well as the availability of palliative medical expertise, ethical advisory committees and integrated psychosocial and spiritual care services. If the necessary competences and structures are not available in a facility, they can be consulted externally or by telemedicine if necessary. The present recommendations are based on an expert consensus and are not the result of a systematic review or a meta-analysis.

The association of oral health with length of stay and mortality in the intensive care unit

OBJECTIVES

To analyze the relationship between the oral and systemic health status of adult patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) with the length of stay and mortality.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

A daily oral examination and oral hygiene were performed in patients admitted to an adult ICU. Dental and oral lesions, systemic health status, the need for mechanical ventilation, length of stay, and mortality were registered. Multivariate linear and logistic regression analyses were performed to identify associations between length of stay and death of patients, respectively, with oral and systemic health status.

RESULTS

In total, 207 patients were included, 107 (51.7%) male. Ventilated patients presented an increased length of stay (p < 0.001), mortality (p < 0.0001), number of medications (p < 0.0001), edentulism (p = 0.001), mucous lesions and bleeding (p < 0.0001), oropharyngitis (p = 0.03), and drooling (p < 0.001) compared to non-ventilated patients. The number of days in the ICU was associated with mechanical ventilation (p = 0.04), nosocomial pneumonia (p = 0001), end-stage renal disease (p < 0.0007), death (p < 0.0001), mucous bleeding (p = 0.01), tongue coating (p = 0.001), and cheilitis (p = 0.01). Mortality was associated with length of stay in the ICU (p < 0.0001), number of medications (p < 0.0001), and the need for mechanical ventilation (p = 0.006).

CONCLUSION

ICU patients present poor oral health. Soft tissue biofilm and mucous ulcerations were associated with the length of stay in the ICU, but not with the mortality rate.

CLINICAL RELEVANCE

Mucous lesions are associated with an increased length of stay in the ICU, and critically ill patients should receive oral care to control oral foci of infection and mucous lesions.

Factors associated with in-hospital mortality of patients admitted to an intensive care unit in a tertiary hospital in Malawi

Objective

To determine factors associated with in-hospital death among patients admitted to ICU and to evaluate the predictive values of single severely deranged vital signs and several severity scoring systems.

Methods

A combined retrospective and prospective cohort study of patients admitted to the adult ICU in a tertiary hospital in Malawi was conducted between January 2017 and July 2019. Predefined potential risk factors for in-hospital death were studied with univariable and multivariable logistic regression models, and the performance of severity scores was assessed.

Results

The median age of the 822 participants was 31 years (IQR 21–43), and 50% were female. Several factors at admission were associated with in-hospital mortality: the presence of one or more severely deranged vital signs, adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.9 (1.4–2.6); treatment with vasopressor aOR 2.3 (1.6–3.4); received cardiopulmonary resuscitation aOR 1.7 (1.2–2.6) and treatment with mechanical ventilation aOR 1.5 (1.1–2.1). Having had surgery had a negative association with in-hospital mortality aOR 0.5 (0.4–0.7). The predictive accuracy of the severity scoring systems had varying sensitivities and specificities, but none were sufficiently accurate to be clinically useful.

Conclusions

In conclusion, the presence of one or more severely deranged vital sign in patients admitted to ICU may be useful as a simple marker of an increased risk of in-hospital death.

Evaluation of time to death after admission to an intensive care unit and factors associated with mortality: A retrospective longitudinal study

Background

Among nonsurvivors admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU), some present early mortality while other patients, despite having a favorable evolution regarding the initial disease, die later due to complications related to hospitalization. This study aims to identify factors associated with the time until death after admission to an ICU of a university hospital.

Methods

Retrospective longitudinal study that included adult patients admitted to the ICU between January 1, 2008, and December 31, 2017. Nonsurviving patients were divided into groups according to the length of time from admission to the ICU until death: Early (0-5 days), intermediate (6-28 days), and late (>28 days). Patients were considered septic if they had this diagnosis on admission to the ICU. Simple linear regression analysis was performed to evaluate the association between time to death over the years of the study. Multivariate cox regression was used to assess risk factors for the outcome in the ICU.

Results

In total, 6596 patients were analyzed. Mortality rate was 32.9% in the ICU. Most deaths occurred in the early (42.8%) and intermediate periods (47.9%). Patients with three or more dysfunctions on admission were more likely to die early (P < 0.001). The diagnosis of sepsis was associated with a higher mortality rate. The multivariate analysis identified age >60 years (hazard ratio [HR] 1.009), male (HR 1.192), mechanical ventilation (HR 1.476), dialysis (HR 2.297), and sequential organ failure assessment >6 (HR 1.319) as risk factors for mortality.

Conclusion

We found a higher proportion of early and intermediate deaths in the study period. The presence of three or more organ dysfunctions at ICU admission was associated with early death. The diagnosis of sepsis evident on ICU admission was associated with higher mortality.

Profile of Sepsis Patients Treated in Intensive Care Unit of Sanglah Hospital Denpasar

BACKGROUND: Primary data regarding sepsis patients in Indonesia, especially in Denpasar, are still limited in number in reporting. The lack of information about sepsis made the authors interested in conducting this study. AIM: The aim of the study was to obtain more in-depth information about the profile of sepsis patients treated in Sanglah Hospital, Denpasar. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This was a cross-sectional descriptive research. Target population in this study are data on patient registers that are included in the inclusion criteria from June 1, 2019 to June 30, 2021, at intensive care unit Sanglah Hospital, Denpasar. The variables in this study included: Demographic conditions such as age, gender, and address, qSOFA score, comorbidities, ventilator, and patient’s outcome (survival or non-survival). RESULTS: A total samples were 173 patients. The average age of patients in this study was 54 years old with 56.6% male and 32.9% lived in Denpasar. Patients suspected of having early sepsis had a qSOFA 0 score of 35.3%, qSOFA 1 was 33.5%, qSOFA 2 was 23.7%, and qSOFA 3 was 7.5%. Patients with sepsis and suspected sepsis with comorbidities were 96% and 79.8% of patients were on a ventilator. The mortality rate in this study was 67.1%. CONCLUSION: These primary data hopefully become references for the future research.

Soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor and lactate as prognostic biomarkers in patients presenting with non-specific chief complaints in the pre-hospital setting - the PRIUS-study

BACKGROUND

Emergency Medical Services (EMS) are faced daily with patients presenting with non-specific chief complaints (NSC). Patients presenting with NSCs often have normal vital signs. It has previously been established that NSCs may have a serious underlying condition that has yet to be identified. The aim of the current study was to determine if soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) and lactate could be used to identify serious conditions among patients presenting with NSCs to the EMS. The secondary aim was to describe the prognostic value for mortality in the group.

METHOD

A blinded prospective observational cohort study was conducted of patients brought to the ED by ambulance after calling the national emergency number 112 and who were assessed as having NSC by the EMS. Biomarkers were measured during index EMS assessment before transportation to the ED. Patients were followed via EMS and hospital electronic health records. Descriptive and logistic regression analyses were used.

RESULTS

A total of 414 patients were included, with a median age of 82 years. A serious condition was present in 15.2% of the patients. Elevated suPAR above 3 ng/ml had a positive likelihood ratio (LR+) of 1.17 and a positive predictive value (PPV) of 17.3% as being predictive of a prevalent serious condition. Elevated suPAR above 9 ng/ml had LR+ 4.67 and a PPV of 16.7% as being predictive of 30-day mortality. Lactate was not significantly predictive.

CONCLUSION

Pre-hospital suPAR and lactate cannot differentiate serious conditions in need of urgent treatment and assessment in the ED among patients presenting with non-specific chief complaints. suPAR has shown to be predictive of 30-day mortality, which could add some value to the clinical assessment.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT03089359. Registered 20 March 2017, retrospectively registered, https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03089359 .

Clinical relevance of copeptin plasma levels as a biomarker of disease severity and mortality in critically ill patients

BACKGROUND

Copeptin, also termed C-terminal pre-pro-vasopressin or CTproAVP, mirrors endogenous vasopressin (anti-diuretic hormone, ADH) activity and might thereby serve as a biomarker reflecting the biological stress level. We therefore hypothesized that copeptin plasma concentrations are associated with disease severity in critically ill patients and could predict mortality.

METHODS

We analyzed plasma copeptin levels in a prospective, single-center, observational study comprising 218 critically ill patients at admission to the medical intensive care unit (ICU). Mortality was assessed during a 2-year observational follow-up period.

RESULTS

Copeptin plasma levels were significantly elevated in critically ill patients (n = 218) at ICU admission, as compared with 66 healthy controls. Neither sepsis as the cause of critical illness nor pre-existing metabolic disorders (type 2 diabetes, obesity) were found to influence copeptin levels. On the contrary, plasma copeptin was closely associated with disease severity (eg APACHE-II score) and correlated with biomarkers of inflammation, renal failure, metabolism, vascular tone, and tissue perfusion. Elevated copeptin levels at ICU admission predicted short-term and long-term mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Copeptin plasma concentrations are significantly elevated in critically ill patients, correlate with disease severity and predict ICU and long-term outcome. Thus, copeptin could be a promising tool for prognostication and management of critically ill patients.

Global trends in the awareness of sepsis: insights from search engine data between 2012 and 2017

BACKGROUND

Sepsis is an established global health priority with high mortality that can be curtailed through early recognition and intervention; as such, efforts to raise awareness are potentially impactful and increasingly common. We sought to characterize trends in the awareness of sepsis by examining temporal, geographic, and other changes in search engine utilization for sepsis information-seeking online.

METHODS

Using time series analyses and mixed descriptive methods, we retrospectively analyzed publicly available global usage data reported by Google Trends (Google, Palo Alto, CA, USA) concerning web searches for the topic of sepsis between 24 June 2012 and 24 June 2017. Google Trends reports aggregated and de-identified usage data for its search products, including interest over time, interest by region, and details concerning the popularity of related queries where applicable. Outlying epochs of search activity were identified using autoregressive integrated moving average modeling with transfer functions. We then identified awareness campaigns and news media coverage that correlated with epochs of significantly heightened search activity.

RESULTS

A second-order autoregressive model with transfer functions was specified following preliminary outlier analysis. Nineteen significant outlying epochs above the modeled baseline were identified in the final analysis that correlated with 14 awareness and news media events. Our model demonstrated that the baseline level of search activity increased in a nonlinear fashion. A recurrent cyclic increase in search volume beginning in 2012 was observed that correlates with World Sepsis Day. Numerous other awareness and media events were correlated with outlying epochs. The average worldwide search volume for sepsis was less than that of influenza, myocardial infarction, and stroke.

CONCLUSIONS

Analyzing aggregate search engine utilization data has promise as a mechanism to measure the impact of awareness efforts. Heightened information-seeking about sepsis occurs in close proximity to awareness events and relevant news media coverage. Future work should focus on validating this approach in other contexts and comparing its results to traditional methods of awareness campaign evaluation.

Who Dies after ICU Discharge? Retrospective Analysis of Prognostic Factors for In-Hospital Mortality of ICU Survivors

We investigated the causes of inpatient death after intensive care unit (ICU) discharge and determined predictors of in-hospital mortality in Korea. Using medical ICU registry data of Seoul National University Hospital, we performed a retrospective cohort study involving patients who were discharged alive from their first ICU admission with at least 24 hours of ICU length of stay (LOS). From January 2011 to August 2013, 723 patients were admitted to ICU and 383 patients were included. The estimated in-hospital mortality rate was 11.7% (45/383). The most common cause of death was respiratory failure (n = 25, 56%) followed by sepsis and cancer progression; the causes of hospital death and ICU admission were the same in 64% of all deaths; sudden unexpected deaths comprised about one-fifth of all deaths. In order to predict in-hospital mortality among ICU survivors, multivariate analysis identified presence of solid tumor (odds ratio [OR], 4.06; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.01-8.2; P < 0.001), hematologic disease (OR, 4.75; 95% CI, 1.51-14.96; P = 0.013), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score upon ICU admission (OR, 1.08; 95% CI, 0.99-1.17; P = 0.075), and hemoglobin (Hb) level (OR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.52-0.86; P = 0.001) and platelet count (Plt) (OR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.99-1.00; P = 0.033) upon ICU discharge as significant factors. In conclusion, a significant proportion of in-hospital mortality is predictable and those who die in hospital after ICU discharge tend to be severely-ill, with comorbidities of hematologic disease and solid tumor, and anemic and thrombocytopenic upon ICU discharge.