Re: The calcium scare: what would Austin Bradford Hill have thought?

Calcium Supplements and Risk of Cardiovascular Disease: A Meta-Analysis of Clinical Trials

Background: Recent systematic reviews and meta-analyses of randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trials (double-blind, placebo-controlled RCTs) have reported controversial findings regarding the associations between calcium supplements on the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). This meta-analysis aimed to investigate the association between them. Methods: We searched PubMed, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library, and the bibliographies of relevant articles for double-blind, placebo-controlled RCTs in November, 2020. Relative risks (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the risk of cardiovascular disease were calculated using a random effects model. The main outcomes were CVD, coronary heart disease (CHD), and cerebrovascular disease. Results: A total of 13 double-blind, placebo-controlled RCTs (n = 28,935 participants in an intervention group and 14,243 in a control group)) were included in the final analysis. Calcium supplements significantly increased the risk of CVD (RR 1.15, 95% CI 1.06–1.25], I2 = 0.0%, n = 14) and CHD (RR 1.16, 95% CI 1.05–1.28], I2 = 0.0%, n = 9) in double-blind, placebo-controlled RCTs, specifically in healthy postmenopausal women. In the subgroup meta-analysis, dietary calcium intake of 700–1000 mg per day or supplementary calcium intake of 1000 mg per day significantly increased the risk of CVD and CHD. Conclusions: The current meta-analysis found that calcium supplements increased a risk of CVD by about 15% in healthy postmenopausal women.

European guidance for the diagnosis and management of osteoporosis in postmenopausal women

Guidance is provided in a European setting on the assessment and treatment of postmenopausal women at risk from fractures due to osteoporosis.

INTRODUCTION

The International Osteoporosis Foundation and European Society for Clinical and Economic Aspects of Osteoporosis and Osteoarthritis published guidance for the diagnosis and management of osteoporosis in 2013. This manuscript updates these in a European setting.

METHODS

Systematic reviews were updated.

RESULTS

The following areas are reviewed: the role of bone mineral density measurement for the diagnosis of osteoporosis and assessment of fracture risk; general and pharmacological management of osteoporosis; monitoring of treatment; assessment of fracture risk; case-finding strategies; investigation of patients; health economics of treatment. The update includes new information on the evaluation of bone microstructure evaluation in facture risk assessment, the role of FRAX® and Fracture Liaison Services in secondary fracture prevention, long-term effects on fracture risk of dietary intakes, and increased fracture risk on stopping drug treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

A platform is provided on which specific guidelines can be developed for national use.

Calcium supplements and cardiovascular risk: 5 years on

Calcium supplements have been widely used by older men and women. However, in little more than a decade, authoritative recommendations have changed from encouraging the widespread use of calcium supplements to stating that they should not be used for primary prevention of fractures. This substantial shift in recommendations has occurred as a result of accumulated evidence of marginal antifracture efficacy, and important adverse effects from large randomized controlled trials of calcium or coadministered calcium and vitamin D supplements. In this review, we discuss this evidence, with a particular focus on increased cardiovascular risk with calcium supplements, which we first described 5 years ago. Calcium supplements with or without vitamin D marginally reduce total fractures but do not prevent hip fractures in community-dwelling individuals. They also cause kidney stones, acute gastrointestinal events, and increase the risk of myocardial infarction and stroke. Any benefit of calcium supplements on preventing fracture is outweighed by increased cardiovascular events. While there is little evidence to suggest that dietary calcium intake is associated with cardiovascular risk, there is also little evidence that it is associated with fracture risk. Therefore, for the majority of people, dietary calcium intake does not require close scrutiny. Because of the unfavorable risk/benefit profile, widespread prescribing of calcium supplements to prevent fractures should be abandoned. Patients at high risk of fracture should be encouraged to take agents with proven efficacy in preventing vertebral and nonvertebral fractures.

Genetic profiling and individualized assessment of fracture risk

Osteoporosis and its consequence of fragility fracture impose a considerable demand on health-care services because fracture is associated with a series of adverse events, including re-fracture and mortality. One of the major priorities in osteoporosis care is the development of predictive models to identify individuals at high risk of fracture for early intervention and management. Existing predictive models include clinical factors and anthropometric characteristics but have not considered genetic variants in the prediction. Genome-wide association studies conducted in the past decade have identified several genetic variants relevant to fracture risk. These genetic variants are common in frequency but have very modest effect sizes. A remaining challenge is to use these genetic data to individualize fracture risk assessment on the basis of an individual's genetic risk profile. Empirical and simulation studies have shown that the usefulness of a single genetic variant for fracture risk assessment is very limited, but a profile of 50 genetic variants, each with odds ratio ranging from 1.02 to 1.15, could improve the accuracy of fracture prediction beyond that obtained by use of existing clinical risk factors. Thus, genetic profiling when integrated with existing risk assessment models could inform a more accurate prediction of fracture risk in an individual.

European guidance for the diagnosis and management of osteoporosis in postmenopausal women

Guidance is provided in a European setting on the assessment and treatment of postmenopausal women at risk of fractures due to osteoporosis.

INTRODUCTION

The International Osteoporosis Foundation and European Society for Clinical and Economic Aspects of Osteoporosis and Osteoarthritis published guidance for the diagnosis and management of osteoporosis in 2008. This manuscript updates these in a European setting.

METHODS

Systematic literature reviews.

RESULTS

The following areas are reviewed: the role of bone mineral density measurement for the diagnosis of osteoporosis and assessment of fracture risk, general and pharmacological management of osteoporosis, monitoring of treatment, assessment of fracture risk, case finding strategies, investigation of patients and health economics of treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

A platform is provided on which specific guidelines can be developed for national use.