Possible FRAX-based intervention thresholds for a cohort of Chinese postmenopausal women

Fracture risk prediction in old Chinese people-a narrative review

With aging, the burden of osteoporotic fracture (OF) increases substantially, while China is expected to carry the greatest part in the future. The risk of fracture varies greatly across racial groups and geographic regions, and systematically organized evidence on the potential predictors for fracture risk is needed for Chinese. This review briefly introduces the epidemiology of OF and expands on the predictors and predictive tools for the risk of OF, as well as the challenges for their potential translation in the old Chinese population. There are regional differences of fracture incidence among China. The fracture incidences in Hong Kong and Taiwan have decreased in recent years, while it is still increasing in mainland China. Although the application of dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) is limited among old Chinese in the mainland, bone mineral density (BMD) by DXA has a predictive value similar to that worldwide. Other non-DXA modalities, especially heel QUS, are helpful in assessing bone health. The fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX) has a good discrimination ability for OFs, especially the FRAX with BMD. And some clinical factors have added value to FRAX, which has been verified in old Chinese. In addition, although the application of the osteoporosis self-assessment tool for Asians (OSTA) in Chinese needs further validation, it may help identify high-risk populations in areas with limited resources. Moreover, the translation use of the muscle quality and genetic or serum biomarkers in fracture prediction needs further works. More applicable and targeted fracture risk predictors and tools are still needed for the old Chinese population.

A systematic review on the performance of fracture risk assessment tools: FRAX, DeFRA, FRA-HS

PURPOSE

Preventing fragility fractures by treating osteoporosis may reduce disability and mortality worldwide. Algorithms combining clinical risk factors with bone mineral density have been developed to better estimate fracture risk and possible treatment thresholds. This systematic review supported panel members of the Italian Fragility Fracture Guidelines in recommending the use of best-performant tool. The clinical performance of the three most used fracture risk assessment tools (DeFRA, FRAX, and FRA-HS) was assessed in at-risk patients.

METHODS

PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Library were searched till December 2020 for studies investigating risk assessment tools for predicting major osteoporotic or hip fractures in patients with osteoporosis or fragility fractures. Sensitivity (Sn), specificity (Sp), and areas under the curve (AUCs) were evaluated for all tools at different thresholds. Quality assessment was performed using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2; certainty of evidence (CoE) was evaluated using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation approach.

RESULTS

Forty-three articles were considered (40, 1, and 2 for FRAX, FRA-HS, and DeFRA, respectively), with the CoE ranging from very low to high quality. A reduction of Sn and increase of Sp for major osteoporotic fractures were observed among women and the entire population with cut-off augmentation. No significant differences were found on comparing FRAX to DeFRA in women (AUC 59-88% vs. 74%) and diabetics (AUC 73% vs. 89%). FRAX demonstrated non-significantly better discriminatory power than FRA-HS among men.

CONCLUSION

The task force formulated appropriate recommendations on the use of any fracture risk assessment tools in patients with or at risk of fragility fractures, since no statistically significant differences emerged across different prediction tools.

Efficacy, Mechanism, and Structure-Activity Relationship of 6-Methoxy Benzofuran Derivatives as a Useful Tool for Senile Osteoporosis

Most patients with senile osteoporosis (SOP) are severely deficient in bone mass, and treatments using bone resorption inhibitors, such as bisphosphonates, have shown limited efficacy. Small-molecule osteogenesis-promoting drugs are required to improve the treatment for this disease. Previously, we demonstrated that a compound with a benzofuran-like structure promoted bone formation by upregulating BMP-2, and it exhibited a therapeutic effect in SAMP-6 mice, glucocorticoid-induced osteoporosis rats, and ovariectomized rats. In this study, aged C57 and SAMP-6 mice models were used to investigate the therapeutic and preventive effects of compound 125 on SOP. scRNA-seq analysis showed that BMP-2 upregulation is the mechanism through which 125 accelerates bone turnover and increases the proportion of osteoblasts. We evaluated the structure-activity relationship of the candidate drugs and found that the derivative I-9 showed significantly higher efficacy than 125 and teriparatide in the zebrafish osteoporosis model. This study provides a foundation for the development of SOP drugs.

Executive summary: Italian guidelines for diagnosis, risk stratification, and care continuity of fragility fractures 2021

Background

Fragility fractures are a major public health concern owing to their worrying and growing burden and their onerous burden upon health systems. There is now a substantial body of evidence that individuals who have already suffered a fragility fracture are at a greater risk for further fractures, thus suggesting the potential for secondary prevention in this field.

Purpose

This guideline aims to provide evidence-based recommendations for recognizing, stratifying the risk, treating, and managing patients with fragility fracture. This is a summary version of the full Italian guideline.

Methods

The Italian Fragility Fracture Team appointed by the Italian National Health Institute was employed from January 2020 to February 2021 to (i) identify previously published systematic reviews and guidelines on the field, (ii) formulate relevant clinical questions, (iii) systematically review literature and summarize evidence, (iv) draft the Evidence to Decision Framework, and (v) formulate recommendations.

Results

Overall, 351 original papers were included in our systematic review to answer six clinical questions. Recommendations were categorized into issues concerning (i) frailty recognition as the cause of bone fracture, (ii) (re)fracture risk assessment, for prioritizing interventions, and (iii) treatment and management of patients experiencing fragility fractures. Six recommendations were overall developed, of which one, four, and one were of high, moderate, and low quality, respectively.

Conclusions

The current guidelines provide guidance to support individualized management of patients experiencing non-traumatic bone fracture to benefit from secondary prevention of (re)fracture. Although our recommendations are based on the best available evidence, questionable quality evidence is still available for some relevant clinical questions, so future research has the potential to reduce uncertainty about the effects of intervention and the reasons for doing so at a reasonable cost.

High Circulating Sphingosine 1-Phosphate is a Risk Factor for Osteoporotic Fracture Independent of Fracture Risk Assessment Tool

Circulating sphingosine 1-phosphate (S1P) levels may be a biomarker for osteoporotic fracture (OF). This study assessed whether the addition of S1P levels to the fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX) could improve predictability of OF risk. Plasma S1P concentrations and FRAX variables were measured in 81 subjects with and 341 subjects without OF. S1P levels were higher in subjects with than those without OF (3.11 ± 0.13 μmol/L vs. 2.65 ± 0.61 μmol/L, P = 0.001). Higher S1P levels were associated with a higher likelihood of OF (odds ratio [OR] = 1.33, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.05-1.68), even after adjusting for FRAX probabilities. Compared with the lowest S1P tertile, subjects in the middle (OR = 3.37, 95% CI = 1.58-7.22) and highest (OR = 3.65, 95% CI = 1.66-8.03) S1P tertiles had higher rates of OF after adjustment. The addition of S1P levels to FRAX probabilities improved the area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve (AUC) for OF, from 0.708 to 0.769 (P = 0.013), as well as enhancing category-free net reclassification improvement (NRI = 0.504, 95% CI = 0.271-0.737, P < 0.001) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI = 0.044, 95% CI = 0.022-0.065, P < 0.001). Adding S1P levels to FRAX probabilities especially in 222 subjects with osteopenia having a FRAX probability of 3.66-20.0% markedly improved the AUC for OF from 0.630 to 0.741 (P = 0.012), as well as significantly enhancing category-free NRI (0.571, 95% CI = 0.221-0.922, P = 0.001) and IDI (0.060, 95% CI = 0.023-0.097, P = 0.002). S1P is a consistent and significant risk factor of OF independent of FRAX, especially in subjects with osteopenia and low FRAX probability.

FRAX® with or without BMD and TBS predicts fragility fractures in community-dwelling rural southern Indian postmenopausal women

This study from southern India showed that FRAX® with or without BMD or TBS predicted fragility vertebral fractures at a cut-off of ≥ 9% for major osteoporotic fracture and ≥ 2.5% for hip fracture with sensitivities of 77-88% and specificities of 55-72%.

PURPOSE

There is limited information available with regard to utility of Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX® tool) in predicting fragility fractures in Indian postmenopausal women. We studied the performance of 3 categories: FRAX® (without BMD), FRAX® (with BMD), and FRAX® (with BMD and TBS) in predicting fragility vertebral fractures in rural postmenopausal women.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

It was a cross-sectional study conducted at a south Indian tertiary care center. Rural postmenopausal women (n = 301) were recruited by simple random sampling. The risk for major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) and hip fracture (HF) was calculated individually for the 3 categories. The BMD (at lumbar spine and femoral neck) and vertebral fractures were assessed by a DXA (dual energy X-ray absorptiometry) scanner and TBS by TBS iNsight software. ROC curves were constructed, and area under curve (AUC), sensitivity and specificity of FRAX® scores, which would best predict prevalent vertebral fractures (moderate to severe), was computed.

RESULTS

The mean (SD) age was 65.6(5.1) years. The prevalence of osteoporosis at spine was 45%, and femoral neck was 32.6%. Moderate to severe vertebral fractures was seen in 29.2% of subjects. The performance of all 3 categories for FRAX® (MOF) and FRAX® (HF) were good (AUC was 0.798, 0.806, and 0.800, respectively, for MOF) at a cut-off score of ≥ 9, and at a cut-off of ≥ 2.5 for HF, it was 0.818, 0.775, and 0.770, respectively. At these cut-offs, sensitivities were 77-89%, and specificities were 55-72% for predicting prevalent vertebral fractures.

CONCLUSION

All three categories of FRAX® showed good performance in predicting fractures in Indian postmenopausal women. Thus, it may be utilized for decision regarding treatment and referral for osteoporosis.

Predicting the intervention threshold for initiating osteoporosis treatment among postmenopausal women in China: a cost-effectiveness analysis based on real-world data

This study built a micro-simulation Markov model to determine the treatment threshold of osteoporosis in postmenopausal women in Mainland China. Treatment with zoledronate is cost-effective when FRAX-based (Fracture risk assessment tool) fracture probability is over 7%.

INTRODUCTION

The purpose of this study is to estimate FRAX-based fracture probabilities in Mainland China using real-world data, at which intervention could be cost-effective.

METHODS

We developed a micro-simulation Markov model to capture osteoporosis states and relevant morbidities including hip fracture, vertebral fracture, and wrist fracture. Baseline characteristics including incidences of osteoporosis and distribution of risk factors were derived from the Peking Vertebral Fracture study, the largest prospective cohort study of postmenopausal women in Mainland China. We projected incidences of fractures and deaths by age groups under two treatment scenarios: 1) no treatment, and 2) zoledronate. We also projected total quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) and total costs including fracture management and osteoporosis drugs for cost-effectiveness analysis. Cost-effective intervention thresholds were calculated based on the Chinese FRAX model.

RESULTS

Treatment with zoledronate was cost-effective when the 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture based on FRAX was above 7%. The FRAX threshold increased by age from 51 to 65 years old, and decreased in elder age groups, ranging from 4% to 9%.

CONCLUSIONS

Using real-world data, our model indicated that widespread use of zoledronate was of both clinical and economic benefit among Chinese postmenopausal women. Using a FRAX-based intervention threshold of 7% with zoledronate should permit cost-effective access to therapy to patients and contribute to reducing the disease burden of osteoporosis in Mainland China.

Performance of FRAX in Predicting Fractures in US Postmenopausal Women with Varied Race and Genetic Profiles

BACKGROUND

Whether the Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) performed differently in estimating the 10-year fracture probability in women of different genetic profiling and race remained unclear.

METHODS

The genomic data in the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) study was analyzed (n = 23,981). The genetic risk score (GRS) was calculated from 14 fracture-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for each participant. FRAX without bone mineral density (BMD) was used to estimate fracture probability.

RESULTS

FRAX significantly overestimated the risk of major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) in the WHI study. The most significant overestimation was observed in women with low GRS (predicted/observed ratio (POR): 1.61, 95% CI: 1.45-1.79) specifically Asian women (POR: 3.5, 95% CI 2.48-4.81) and in African American women (POR: 2.59, 95% CI: 2.33-2.87). Compared to the low GRS group, the 10-year probability of MOF adjusted for the FRAX score was 21% and 30% higher in the median GRS group and high GRS group, respectively. Asian, African American, and Hispanic women respectively had a 78%, 76%, and 56% lower hazard than Caucasian women after the FRAX score was adjusted. The results were similar for hip fractures.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study suggested the FRAX performance varies significantly by both genetic profile and race in postmenopausal women.

The diversity of Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX)-based intervention thresholds in Asia

Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX), introduced in 2008, is the most frequently used fracture risk calculator. Many Asian countries have developed own FRAX models to suit their country needs. Only a few Asian countries, however, have developed country-specific intervention thresholds to demarcate high-risk patients. A wide variation is seen in these intervention thresholds partly due to the different approaches used in developing the cutoff values. This paper discusses the diversity of the intervention thresholds in Asian countries and possible reasons. It also discusses the future directions for the countries in the Asian region.

Comparison of strategies for setting intervention thresholds for Chinese postmenopausal women using the FRAX model

PURPOSE

The two main strategies for managing osteoporosis using the Fracture Risk Assessment (FRAX®) are the fixed-probability threshold of the National Osteoporosis Foundation (NOF) and the age-dependent-probability threshold of the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group (NOGG), but there are no FRAX® Chinese-specific thresholds. This study examined the NOF and NOGG strategies for intervention thresholds using the Chinese FRAX® model for their appropriateness for Chinese postmenopausal women, and explored Chinese-specific thresholds.

METHODS

Postmenopausal women (N = 264) >50 years old from community-medical centers in China were randomly selected. They completed a self-report questionnaire and underwent bone mineral density measurements and spinal X-rays. The 10-year risks for a major osteoporosis fracture and hip fracture were calculated using the Chinese FRAX® model. Using an osteoporosis diagnosis as the gold standard, we compared the abilities of the NOF and NOGG thresholds to detect osteoporosis by analyzing their sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and positive and negative likelihood ratios.

RESULTS

The 10-year risks for hip fracture and a major osteoporotic fracture increased with age. The NOF's accuracy in detecting osteoporosis was 83.33% and the NOGG's was 74.24%. The NOF thresholds showed higher accuracy and specificity than the NOGG thresholds.

CONCLUSION

NOF thresholds are more appropriate for Chinese menopausal women.

Revised FRAX®-based intervention thresholds for the management of osteoporosis among postmenopausal women in Sri Lanka

This paper revised the fixed intervention thresholds (ITs) based on the Sri Lankan fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX) published in 2013 and introduced new ITs, hybrid and two-tier, aiming to help clinicians in the management of postmenopausal osteoporosis. The hybrid and two-tier ITs have a better discriminatory power than age-dependent and revised fixed ITs.

INTRODUCTION

This study revised the Sri Lankan FRAX®-based intervention thresholds (ITs) previously published in 2013.

METHOD

Age-dependent ITs were estimated, from 50-80 years with 5-year intervals, using a Sri Lankan FRAX® algorithm for a woman with a BMI of 24.8 kg/m² and history of prior fragility fracture without other clinical risk factors. Data of 653 postmenopausal women were used in estimating fixed, hybrid, and two-tier ITs. ITs were determined using the ROC curve and partial Youden index. New ITs were validated using data of 356 postmenopausal women who underwent DXA and 62 women who had a recent fragility fracture. Women in the two groups (n = 653 and n = 356) came from the Southern Province and had undergone DXA in our state-owned tertiary care hospital as a part of their routine clinical assessment.

RESULTS

The mean (SD) age and BMI of the subjects (n = 653) were 62 (8) years and 24.8 (1.2) kg/m², respectively. Age-dependent ITs of major osteoporotic fracture risk (MOFR) and hip fracture risk (HFR) ranged from 2.7 to 18% and from 0.4 to 7.1%. The best fixed ITs for women aged 50-80 years were 9% for MOFR and 3% for HFR. In the hybrid method, MOFR of 6% and HFR of 2% were found appropriate for women aged < 70 years. These were combined with age-dependent ITs for women aged 70 years and above. In the two-tier system, two sets of ITs were calculated (ITs of MOFR/HFR for women aged < 70 years and ≥ 70 years were 6%/2% and 12%/5%, respectively). When age-dependent ITs were considered the reference standard, sensitivities of the fixed, hybrid, and two-tier ITs were 0.63, 0.73, and 0.74, respectively. The specificities were 0.76, 0.86, and 0.80 in the same order. Sensitivities of the age-dependent, fixed, hybrid, and two-tier ITs in identifying a woman with an incident fracture were 26%, 48%, 61%, and 61%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The new fixed MOFR is slightly lower than the previous value and hybrid and two-tier ITs perform better than age-dependent and fixed ITs.

FRAX® based intervention thresholds for management of osteoporosis in Singaporean women

Potential FRAX®-based major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) and hip fracture (HF) intervention thresholds (ITs) for postmenopausal Singaporean women were explored. Age-dependent ethnic-specific and weighted mean ITs progressively increased with increasing age. Fixed ITs were derived via discriminatory value analysis. MOF and HF ITs with highest the Youden index were chosen as optimal.

INTRODUCTION

We aimed to explore FRAX®-based intervention thresholds (ITs) to potentially guide osteoporosis treatment in Singapore, a multi-ethnic nation.

METHOD

One thousand and one Singaporean postmenopausal community-dwelling women belonging to Chinese, Malay and Indian ethnicities underwent clinical risk factor (CRF) and BMD assessment. FRAX® major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) and hip fracture (HF) probabilities were calculated using ethnic-specific models. We employed the translational logic adopted by NOGG (UK), whereby osteoporosis treatment is recommended to any postmenopausal woman whose fracture probability based on other CRFs is similar to or exceeds that of an age-matched woman with a fracture. Using the same logic, ethnic-specific and mean weighted age-dependent ITs were computed. Employing these age-dependent ITs as a reference, the performance of fixed (age-independent) ITs were examined using ROC curves and discriminatory analysis, with the highest Youden index (YI) (sensitivity + specificity - 1) used to identify the optimal MOF and HF ITs.

RESULTS

The mean age was 58.9 (6.9) years. Seven hundred and eighty-nine (79%) women were Chinese, 136 (13.5%) Indian and 76 (7.5%) Malay. Age-dependent MOF ITs ranged from 3.1 to 33%, 2.5 to 17% and 2.5 to 16% whilst HF ITs ranged from 0.7 to 17%, 0.4 to 6% and 0.4 to 6.3% in Chinese, Malay and Indian women, respectively, between the ages of 50 and 90 years. The weighted age-dependent MOF and HF ITs ranged from 2.9% and 0.6%, respectively, at the age of 50, to 28% and 14% at 90 years of age. Fixed MOF/HF ITs of 5.5%/1%, 2.5%/1% and 2.5%/0.25% were identified as the most optimal by the highest YI in Chinese, Malay and Indian women, respectively. Fixed MOFP and HF ITs of 4% and 1%, respectively, were found to be most optimal on the weighted means analysis.

CONCLUSION

The ITs for osteoporosis treatment in Singapore show marked variations across ethnicities. Weighted mean thresholds may overcome the dilemma of intervening at different thresholds for different ethnicities. Choosing fixed ITs may have to involve trade-offs between sensitivity and specificity. FRAX®-based age-dependent or the fixed intervention thresholds suggested as an alternative to be considered for use in Singapore though further studies on the societal and health economic impacts of choosing these thresholds in Singapore are needed.

Individualized fracture risk assessment: State-of-the-art and room for improvement

Fragility fracture is a serious clinical event, because it is associated with increased risk of mortality and reduced quality of life. The risk of fracture is determined by multiple risk factors, and their effects may be interactional. Over the past 10 years, a number of predictive models (e.g., FRAX, Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator, and Qfracture) have been developed for individualized assessment of fracture risk. These models use different risk profiles to estimate the probability of fracture over 5- and 10-year period. The ability of these models to discriminate between those individuals who will and will not have a fracture (i.e., area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC]) is generally acceptable-to-good (AUC, 0.6 to 0.8), and is highly variable between populations. The calibration of existing models is poor, particularly in Asian populations. There is a strong need for the development and validation of new prediction models based on Asian data for Asian populations. We propose approaches to improve the accuracy of existing predictive models by incorporating new markers such as genetic factors, bone turnover markers, trabecular bone score, and time-variant factors. New and more refined models for individualized fracture risk assessment will help identify those most likely to sustain a fracture, those most likely to benefit from treatment, and encouraging them to modify their risk profile to decrease risk.

Fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX) and for the diagnosis of osteoporosis in Japanese middle-aged and elderly women: Chiba bone survey

Osteoporosis not only increases bone fracture risk but also affects survival in postmenopausal women. Although osteoporosis is diagnosed based on low bone mineral density (BMD) determined by dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), BMD measurement is sometimes difficult because DXA is not widely available in the community. The Fracture Risk Assessment tool (FRAX) can predict 10-year major osteoporotic fracture risk and hip fracture risk with or without femoral neck BMD. The FRAX has not been investigated adequately in community-dwelling Japanese women. We administered the FRAX tool in 13,421 Japanese women who underwent DXA-based forearm BMD measurement in Chiba Bone Survey, a population-based, multicenter, cross-sectional study of postmenopausal osteoporosis conducted in Chiba, Japan. Mean age was 57.77 ± 9.24 years. Mean forearm BMD was 87.94 ± 17.00% of young adult mean (YAM). Mean FRAX major osteoporotic fracture risk without femoral neck BMD was 7.06 ± 5.22%. BMD decreased and percentage of osteoporosis increased from age 55 onward. Age distribution of percentage of subjects with FRAX major osteoporotic fracture risk >15% was similar to that of percentage of osteoporosis subjects. We identified the cutoff value of FRAX major osteoporotic fracture risk for diagnosis of osteoporosis as 7.2%. With this cutoff, the positive likelihood ratio was over 1.0 at age 55 and above but accuracy was low. In conclusion, FRAX without femoral neck BMD reflects bone status, and may be useful to diagnose osteoporosis in Japanese women aged 55 and above, although the sensitivity was low for osteoporosis screening, especially in middle-aged women.

Evaluation of the validity of osteoporosis and fracture risk assessment tools (IOF One Minute Test, SCORE, and FRAX) in postmenopausal Palestinian women

The need for simple self-assessment tools is necessary to predict women at high risk for developing osteoporosis. In this study, tools like the IOF One Minute Test, Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX), and Simple Calculated Osteoporosis Risk Estimation (SCORE) were found to be valid for Palestinian women. The threshold for predicting women at risk for each tool was estimated.

PURPOSE

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the validity of the updated IOF (International Osteoporosis Foundation) One Minute Osteoporosis Risk Assessment Test, FRAX, SCORE as well as age alone to detect the risk of developing osteoporosis in postmenopausal Palestinian women.

METHODS

Three hundred eighty-two women 45 years and older were recruited including 131 women with osteoporosis and 251 controls following bone mineral density (BMD) measurement, 287 completed questionnaires of the different risk assessment tools. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were evaluated for each tool using bone BMD as the gold standard for osteoporosis.

RESULTS

The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was the highest for FRAX calculated with BMD for predicting hip fractures (0.897) followed by FRAX for major fractures (0.826) with cut-off values ˃1.5 and ˃7.8%, respectively. The IOF One Minute Test AUC (0.629) was the lowest compared to other tested tools but with sufficient accuracy for predicting the risk of developing osteoporosis with a cut-off value ˃4 total yes questions out of 18. SCORE test and age alone were also as good predictors of risk for developing osteoporosis. According to the ROC curve for age, women ≥64 years had a higher risk of developing osteoporosis. Higher percentage of women with low BMD (T-score ≤-1.5) or osteoporosis (T-score ≤-2.5) was found among women who were not exposed to the sun, who had menopause before the age of 45 years, or had lower body mass index (BMI) compared to controls. Women who often fall had lower BMI and approximately 27% of the recruited postmenopausal Palestinian women had accidents that caused fractures.

CONCLUSIONS

Simple self-assessment tools like FRAX without BMD, SCORE, and the IOF One Minute Tests were valid for predicting Palestinian postmenopausal women at high risk of developing osteoporosis.

The Effect of FRAX on the Prediction of Osteoporotic Fractures in Urban Middle-aged and Elderly Healthy Chinese Adults

OBJECTIVE:

We aimed to analyze the applicability of a fracture risk assessment tool for the prediction of osteoporotic fractures in middle-aged and elderly healthy Chinese adults.

METHODS:

A standard questionnaire was administered, and bone mineral density was measured in residents visiting the Dongliu Street Community Health Service Center. Paired t-tests were used to compare the FRAX-based probabilities of fractures estimated with and without consideration of bone mineral density. Risk stratification and partial correlation analyses were applied to analyze the associations between FRAX-based probabilities and body mass index or bone mineral density at different sites.

RESULTS:

A total of 444 subjects were included in this study. Of these subjects, 175 (39.59%) were diagnosed as osteoporotic, and 208 (47.06%) were diagnosed as osteopenic. The Kappa value for the detection of osteoporosis at the L1-L4 lumbar spine and femoral neck was 0.314. The FRAX-based 10-year major osteoporotic fracture probability and hip osteoporotic fracture probability estimated without considering bone mineral density were 4.93% and 1.64%, respectively; when estimated while considering bone mineral density, these probabilities were 4.97% and 1.54%, respectively. A significant positive association was observed between the FRAX-based fracture probabilities estimated with and without consideration of bone mineral density, while significant negative associations between body mass index and the estimated FRAX-based fracture probabilities after adjustment for age and the estimated FRAX-based fracture probabilities and femoral neck bone mineral density were identified. These results remained the same after controlling for lumbar spine bone mineral density.

CONCLUSIONS:

The Chinese FRAX model could predict osteoporotic fracture risk regardless of whether bone mineral density was considered and was especially appropriate for predicting osteoporotic fractures of the femoral neck.

The added value of trabecular bone score to FRAX® to predict major osteoporotic fractures for clinical use in Chinese older people: the Mr. OS and Ms. OS cohort study in Hong Kong

The association of trabecular bone score (TBS) with fracture risk and its added predictive value to FRAX® for clinical use have never been independently evaluated in a Chinese population. TBS may improve the predictive power of FRAX® for clinical use in older Chinese men.

INTRODUCTION

Trabecular bone score (TBS) of lumbar spine on Dual X-ray densitometry provides information on bone architecture. We therefore examined the additive value of TBS to FRAX® in predicting major osteoporotic fractures (MOFs) in older Chinese people.

METHODS

Four thousand community-dwelling Chinese men and women aged ≥65 years were followed up for fracture incidence for an average period of 9.94 and 8.82 years, respectively. At baseline, areal BMD of hip and lumbar spine were measured by DXA, TBS was estimated for the lumbar spine, and FRAX® for 10-year risk of MOFs (hip, clinical spine, shoulder, and wrist) was estimated. Cox regression model was used to evaluate the associations between TBS and FRAX® with the MOFs risk. The area under receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and category-based net reclassification improvement (NRI) were applied to evaluate the improved prediction ability.

RESULTS

During the follow-up, 126 men and 215 women had at least one incident MOF. Each SD decrease in TBS was significantly associated with incident MOFs, with HR (95%CI) of 1.53 (1.30-1.80) and 1.40 (1.22-1.61) in men and women, respectively. TBS-adjusted FRAX® predicts better than FRAX® with a significantly increased AUC and IDI in men. Using specific intervention thresholds, TBS-adjusted FRAX® brings about 5 % overall correct reclassification for MOFs prediction than FRAX® in men. The increased correct MOFs risk classifications were not significant in older women.

CONCLUSIONS

TBS-adjusted FRAX® may improve the predictive power of FRAX® on MOFs for clinical use in older Chinese men.

Establishing and evaluating FRAX® probability thresholds in Taiwan

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE

The Taiwanese FRAX^® calculator was launched in 2010. However, cost-effectiveness thresholds for the prescription of antiosteoporosis medications were not established. This study aims to establish and evaluate FRAX^®-based probability thresholds in Taiwan.

METHODS

Using previous data from Taiwan and literature, we determined cost-effectiveness thresholds for prevention of osteoporotic fractures by alendronate with a Markov model, as well as using two other translational approaches. Sensitivity analysis was applied using different alendronate prices. A clinical sample was used to test these Taiwan-specific thresholds by determining the percentages of high-risk patients who would be qualified for current National Health Insurance reimbursement.

RESULTS

With the Markov model, the intervention threshold for hip fracture was 7% for women and 6% for men; for major osteoporotic fracture, it was 15% for women and 12.5% for men. Both translational approach models were cost effective only for certain age groups. However, if branded alendronate was reimbursed at 60% of the current price, they became cost effective in almost all age groups. This clinical screening study showed that the National Health Insurance Administration model identified the highest proportion (44%) of patients qualified for National Health Insurance reimbursements, followed by the Markov model (30%), and the United States model (22%).

CONCLUSION

Three FRAX^®-based models of alendronate use were established in Taiwan to help optimize treatment strategies. The government is encouraged to incorporate FRAX^®-based approaches into the reimbursement policy for antiosteoporosis medicines.