Screening for osteoporosis in Chinese post-menopausal women: a health economic modelling study

Clinical Outcomes and Cost-Effectiveness of Osteoporosis Screening With Dual-Energy X-ray Absorptiometry

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to evaluate the clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness of dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) for osteoporosis screening.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Eligible patients who had and had not undergone DXA screening were identified from among those aged 50 years or older at Kaohsiung Veterans General Hospital, Taiwan. Age, sex, screening year (index year), and Charlson comorbidity index of the DXA and non-DXA groups were matched using inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) for propensity score analysis. For cost-effectiveness analysis, a societal perspective, 1-year cycle length, 20-year time horizon, and discount rate of 2% per year for both effectiveness and costs were adopted in the incremental cost-effectiveness (ICER) model.

RESULTS

The outcome analysis included 10337 patients (female:male, 63.8%:36.2%) who were screened for osteoporosis in southern Taiwan between January 1, 2012, and December 31, 2021. The DXA group had significantly better outcomes than the non-DXA group in terms of fragility fractures (7.6% vs. 12.5%, P < 0.001) and mortality (0.6% vs. 4.3%, P < 0.001). The DXA screening strategy gained an ICER of US$ -2794 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) relative to the non-DXA at the willingness-to-pay threshold of US$ 33004 (Taiwan's per capita gross domestic product). The ICER after stratifying by ages of 50-59, 60-69, 70-79, and ≥ 80 years were US$ -17815, US$ -26862, US$ -28981, and US$ -34816 per QALY, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Using DXA to screen adults aged 50 years or older for osteoporosis resulted in a reduced incidence of fragility fractures, lower mortality rate, and reduced total costs. Screening for osteoporosis is a cost-saving strategy and its effectiveness increases with age. However, caution is needed when generalizing these cost-effectiveness results to all older populations because the study population consisted mainly of women.

Socio-demographic disparities in health-related quality of life after hip fracture in China: evidence from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study

This study analyzed the impact of hip fractures on people's health-related quality of life and its socio-demographic disparities in China.

PURPOSE

Hip fractures cause high mortality and worsened health-related quality of life (HRQoL). This study aimed to investigate whether socio-demographic-related inequities in post-hip fracture participants' HRQoL exist in China.

METHODS

Data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (waves 2013, 2015, and 2018) were used. The measurement of HRQoL in this study focused on 5 health dimensions: depression, body pain, mobility, basic activities of daily living, and instrumental activities of daily living. A difference-in-differences (DID) analysis with multiple time periods was performed to gauge the impact of hip fracture on HRQoL. A multivariate regression approach was used to explore socio-demographic-related factors associated with inequities of HRQoL.

RESULTS

A total of 23,622 individuals were included, and 341 participants reported hip fracture events during the survey period. In participants with hip fracture, the presentation rate of body pain increased by 14% (p < 0.01) and the HRQoL of other health dimensions worsened (p ≤ 0.01) after hip fracture. The DID analysis showed that hip fracture had a negative impact on all HRQoL dimensions (p < 0.01). Socioeconomic-related factors of HRQoL inequities included school education level and location of residence. Study participants with hip fracture with greater educational attainment or living in urban areas had higher (p < 0.05) levels of HRQoL. In addition, comorbidities also correlated with a worse HRQoL (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Hip fracture significantly affects people's HRQoL in China, and the impact is more profound for those with lower educational attainment or living in rural areas. Targeted interventions should be designed to narrow this inequity.

METTL14 upregulates TCF1 through m6A mRNA methylation to stimulate osteogenic activity in osteoporosis

Alteration of N6-methyladenosine (m6A) is closely linked to spanning biological processes including osteoporosis (OP) development. This research focuses on the function of methyltransferase like 14 (METTL14) in bone turnover and its interaction with T cell factor 1 (TCF1). A mouse model of OP was established by ovariectomy (OVX). The bone mass parameters were evaluated by micro-CT analysis. Mouse MC3T3-E1 cells and mouse bone marrow macrophages (BMMs) were induced for osteogenic or osteoclastic differentiation, respectively, for in vitro experiments. The osteogenesis or osteoclasis activity was analyzed by measuring the biomarkers such as OPG, ALP, NFATC1, CTSK, RANKL, and TRAP. RT-qPCR and IHC assays identified reduced METTL14 expression in bone tissues of osteoporotic patients and ovariectomized mice. Artificial METTL14 overexpression increased bone mass of mice and promoted osteogenesis whereas suppressed osteoclasis both in vivo and in vitro. METTL14 promoted TCF1 expression through m6A mRNA methylation, and TCF1 increased the osteogenic activity by elevating the protein level of RUNX2, a key molecule linked to bone formation. In rescue experiments, TCF1 restored the RUNX2 level and osteogenic activity of cells suppressed by METTL14 silencing. In summary, this research demonstrates that METTL14 plays a protective role against OP by promoting the TCF1/RUNX2 axis.

A model-based cost-effectiveness analysis of fracture liaison services in China

This study is a model-based cost-effectiveness analysis of fracture liaison services (FLS) in China, suggesting that FLS could potentially lead to lifetime cost-saving in patients who have experienced a fracture. However, Chinese-specific real-world data is needed to confirm the results of our study.

PURPOSE

The study aimed to assess the potential cost-effectiveness of fracture liaison services (FLS) from the Chinese healthcare perspective with a lifetime horizon.

METHODS

A previously validated Markov microsimulation model was adapted to estimate the cost-effectiveness of FLS compared to no-FLS. The evaluation was conducted in patients aged 65 years with a recent fracture. Treatment pathways were differentiated by gender, FLS attendance, osteoporosis diagnosis, treatment initiation, and adherence. Given the uncertainty in FLS cost, the cost in the base-case analysis was assumed at US$200. Analyses were also performed to determine the maximum cost for making the FLS cost-saving and cost-effective at the Chinese willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold. One-way sensitivity analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

When compared with no-FLS, the FLS was dominant (lower costs, higher quality-adjusted life years) in our target population at the FLS cost of US$200 per patient. For every 100 patients who were admitted to the FLS, approximately four hip fractures, nine clinical vertebral fractures, and three wrist fractures would be avoided over their lifetimes. Our findings were robust to numerous one-way sensitivity analyses; however, the FLS was not cost-effective in patients aged 80 years and older.

CONCLUSION

FLS could potentially lead to lifetime cost-saving in patients who have experienced a fracture. Our study informs the potential cost-effectiveness of FLS and the knowledge gap in China; more future research incorporating Chinese-specific real-world data are needed to confirm the results of our study and to better evaluate the cost-effectiveness of FLS in China.

Cost-Effectiveness of Sequential Denosumab/Zoledronic Acid Compared With Zoledronic Acid Monotherapy for Postmenopausal Osteoporotic Women in China

Objective: The primary purpose of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of sequential denosumab/zoledronic acid versus zoledronic acid monotherapy for postmenopausal osteoporotic women in China.

Methods: We updated and utilized a previously validated Markov microsimulation model to obtain the cost-effectiveness of two strategies for treating postmenopausal osteoporotic women. We compared the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) (US dollars [$] per quality-adjusted life year [QALY]) of sequential denosumab/zoledronic acid (i.e., biannual subcutaneous denosumab for 3 years followed by annual intravenous zoledronic acid for 3 years) with zoledronic acid monotherapy for 3 years in Chinese women with postmenopausal osteoporosis at ages 65, 70, 75, and 80 from the health care payer perspective. Our study’s willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold was set to three times the value of China’s per capita GDP in 2020 ($31,512).

Results: The ICERs of sequential denosumab/zoledronic acid versus zoledronic acid monotherapy were $59,389/QALY, $23,821/QALY, $22,710/QALY, and $14,027/QALY at age 65, 70, 75, and 80 years, respectively. One-way sensitivity analyses showed that the most impactful parameter was the persistence rate of the medications. If the persistence rate of denosumab or zoledronic acid was increased by 10%, sequential denosumab/zoledronic acid would be cost-effective at age 65. In probabilistic sensitivity analyses, the probabilities of sequential denosumab/zoledronic being cost-effective compared to zoledronic acid monotherapy were approximately 29.3%, 68.7%, 86.1%, and 99.4% for ages 65, 70, 75, and 80 years, respectively, at the WTP threshold of $31,512/QALY.

Conclusion: Among Chinese postmenopausal osteoporosis women over 70 years old, sequential denosumab/zoledronic acid was cost-effective compared with zoledronic acid monotherapy at the pre-determined WTP threshold.

Cost-Effectiveness of Sequential Teriparatide/Zoledronic Acid Compared With Zoledronic Acid Monotherapy for Postmenopausal Osteoporotic Women in China

Objective

We aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of sequential teriparatide/zoledronic acid relative to zoledronic acid monotherapy for postmenopausal osteoporotic women in China.

Methods

A previously validated Markov microsimulation model was updated to examine the cost-effectiveness of daily subcutaneous teriparatide for 2 years followed by annual intravenous zoledronic acid for 3 years (sequential teriparatide/zoledronic acid), compared with zoledronic acid monotherapy for 3 years in Chinese women with postmenopausal osteoporosis at ages 65, 70, 75, and 80 from the health care payer perspective.

Results

The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) (US dollars [$] per quality-adjusted life-year [QALY]) of sequential teriparatide/zoledronic acid vs. zoledronic acid monotherapy was $173,223/QALY at age 65 years, which was much higher than the pre-determined willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $ 31,512/QALY, and the results were similar at other ages. In one-way sensitivity analyses, the two most impactful parameters were the cost of teriparatide and the residual effects of the medications included in this study. Sequential teriparatide/zoledronic acid became cost-effective at age 80 with the cost of teriparatide reduced by 50%. Without the residual effect, the ICER increased to $257,982/QALY. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses shown that the probabilities of zoledronic acid monotherapy being cost-effective were 100% at a WTP of $31,512/QALY.

Conclusions

Among Chinese women with postmenopausal osteoporosis, sequential teriparatide/zoledronic acid was not cost-effective unless the cost of teriparatide was reduced by 50% only for the participants over 80 years.

Risk of osteoporotic fracture in women using the FRAX tool with and without bone mineral density score in patients followed at a tertiary outpatient clinic ‒ An observational study

OBJECTIVES

Fragility fractures increase morbidity and mortality. Adding assessment of clinical risk factors independently or as a previous step to Bone Densitometry (BD) should provide better accuracy in fracture risk prediction. FRAX tool might be used to stratify patients in order to rationalize the need for BD and risk classification. The primary objective of this study is to describe and perform comparisons between the estimated risk of fractures in 10 years using the FRAX calculator based on clinical factors with and without BD results for women aged 40 or more with clinical diseases monitored in tertiary care service in internal medicine.

METHODS

Cross-sectional. Women over 40 years with BD in the previous year. After medical chart review, identification of risk factors and risk estimations using FRAX-BRAZIL with (FRAX BDI) and without (FRAX BDNI) the inclusion of T-score.

RESULTS

239 women. Age 65 ± 10.35 years. BMI 29.68 ± 6.27kg/m².

RISK FACTORS

32(13.4%) previous fractures; 23 (9.6%) current smoking; 78 (32.6%) corticosteroids use; 44 (18.4%) rheumatoid arthritis; 38 (15.9%) secondary causes; FRAX scores were higher when BD was not included. Spearman correlation coefficients between FRAX BDNI and FRAX BDI for major fractures r = 0.793 (95% CI 0.7388‒0.836). For hip fractures r = 0.6922 (95% CI 0.6174‒0.75446) CONCLUSION: Using FRAX to estimate 10-year fracture risk without BD data might be a reliable tool for screening, even for patients with a high prevalence of risk factors, improving accessibility and equity in health systems. The present study's data suggest an overestimation of fracture risk with FRAX BDNI, suggesting that it is safe to be widely used as a screening tool.

Which injected antiosteoporotic medication is worth paying for? A cost-effectiveness analysis of teriparatide, zoledronate, ibandronate, and denosumab for postmenopausal osteoporotic women in China

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of four injected antiosteoporotic medications including teriparatide, zoledronate, ibandronate, and denosumab for postmenopausal osteoporotic women in China.

METHODS

A Markov microsimulation model was used to compare the cost-effectiveness of the four drugs above in Chinese postmenopausal osteoporotic women with no fracture history of hip, vertebral, or wrist at various ages (65, 70, 75, and 80) of therapy initiation from the health care payer perspective.

RESULTS

Denosumab was dominant (ie, lower costs and greater quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs]) compared with other strategies at all ages studied. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of zoledronate or ibandronate versus no treatment were $4,482.88/ QALYs or $11,378/QALYs, respectively, at age 65 years, and the results at other ages were similar. In contrast, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of teriparatide strategy compared with no treatment exceeded the pre-determined threshold of a willingness-to-pay of $31,512/QALY regardless of the adoption of the patient assistance program at all ages studied, and a threshold analysis showed that teriparatide without patient assistance program became cost-effective when the annual drug cost is decreased to $1,644.87 (current cost: $8,764.65). The cost-effectiveness decision did not change in most of the one-way sensitivity analyses. A scenario analysis considering no offset effect of denosumab showed that zoledronate had the potential to become the optimal option relative to denosumab. In probabilistic sensitivity analyses, the probabilities of denosumab being cost-effective compared with other strategies were 100% at a willingness-to-pay of $31,512/QALY.

CONCLUSIONS

Among postmenopausal osteoporotic women in China, denosumab therapy is cost-effective at all ages examined from the health care payer perspective, compared with teriparatide, zoledronate, or ibandronate. This study will help clinicians and policymakers make better decisions about the relative economic value of osteoporosis treatments in China.

The Assessment of the Osteoporosis Self-Assessment Tool for Asians and Calcaneal Quantitative Ultrasound in Identifying Osteoporotic Fractures and Falls Among Chinese People

The lack of DXA has made the diagnosis and treatment of osteoporosis extremely difficult in the vast rural areas of China, which has the largest population with high risks of osteoporosis. The aims of this cross-sectional study were to evaluate the association between the osteoporosis self-assessment tool for Asians (OSTA) and calcaneus quantitative ultrasound (QUS) in populations residing in Shanghai, China, and their assessment in predicting osteoporotic fractures and falls. A population of 12,033 participants, including 1272 males (average age 68.3 ± 9.8 years, range 28-100 years) and 10,761 females (average 56.8 ± 11.4 years, range 23-99 years), was gathered. OSTA and calcaneus QUS (Sonost 2000, OsteoSys) values were measured. Spearman's correlation and Cohen's kappa were used to determine the association and agreement between the OSTA and QUS. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were adapted to assess the performance and optimal cutoff values for the OSTA and QUS in osteoporotic fracture and fall screening. In total, the prevalence of osteoporotic fractures (low-trauma fractures including fractures of the spine, hip, forearm, humerus and ribs) was 15.2% in women, and 17.7% reported a history of falls (falling from standing height more than once in the past year). The percentages of men with the same history were 8.4% and 11.7%, respectively. The association between the OSTA and QUS was found to be r_s = 0.393, κ = 0.137, p < 0.001. The OSTA (cutoff < -1) revealed an area under ROC curve (AUC) of 0.590 in identifying female individuals with moderate or high risk of osteoporosis defined by QUS (T-score < -1). The QUS T-score lower than -1.55 or -1.40 in postmenopausal women may lead to an increased risk of falls or osteoporotic fractures, respectively. The agreement between QUS and the OSTA seemed to be limited in determining individuals at risk of osteoporosis. Measuring bone mineral density (BMD) by dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) may still be necessary in the clinical diagnosis of osteoporosis. OSTA and QUS T-scores less than the respective cutoff values may indicate an increased risk of osteoporotic fractures and falls that individual should be further treated and screened by DXA.

Economic Evaluation of Oral Alendronate Therapy for Osteoporosis in Chinese Postmenopausal Women: The Impact of Medication Compliance and Persistence

Objective: Prevalence of osteoporosis in Chinese postmenopausal women has significantly increased over the past decade and oral bisphosphonates are the most potent antiresorptive drugs. The purpose of the present research was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of oral alendronate for individuals with osteoporosis. We also assessed the impact of medication compliance and persistence on economic outcomes of alendronate and potential economic evaluations of persistence-enhancing interventions.

Methods: We constructed an individual-level state-transition model to project health outcomes and costs of oral alendronate for Chinese postmenopausal osteoporotic women. The impact of medication compliance and persistence on economic evaluation was addressed in various scenario analyses. Model inputs were derived from clinical trials and published sources, where available. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to explore the impact of uncertainties and assumptions on the cost-effectiveness results.

Results: Compared with no treatment, alendronate treatment was associated with an additional 0.052 QALYs (quality-adjusted life-years) at an additional cost of USD 738, which yielded an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of USD 14,192.308/QALY. The ICER for the different scenarios (full compliance, full persistence, and both full persistence and full compliance) was USD 4,933.333/QALY, USD 3,006.849/QALY, and USD 2,049.822/QALY, respectively. One-way sensitivity analysis showed the ICER was most sensitive to variations in time horizon and residual effect. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis demonstrated that, at a willingness to pay of USD 29,340/QALY, the probability that oral alendronate therapy will be cost-effective is approximately 80%.

Conclusion: The findings support the view that oral alendronate is cost-effective for the treatment of osteoporotic fractures in Chinese postmenopausal women. Medication persistence is found to have a greater impact on cost-effectiveness than compliance and interventions to improve persistence to be an efficient use of resources.

Bone Microthrombus Promotes Bone Loss in Iron Accumulation Rats

In the present study, we investigated the changes of the coagulation state, bone microthrombus, microvascular bed and bone density levels in iron accumulation rats. Meanwhile,the effect of anticoagulation therapy on bone mineral density was further investigated. We established two groups: a control (Ctrl) group and an iron intervention (FAC) group. Changes in coagulation function, peripheral blood cell counts, bone microthrombus, bone vessels and bone mineral density were compared between the two groups. We designed the non-treatment group and treatment group to study the changes of bone mineral density by preventing microthrombus formation with the anticoagulant fondaparinux. We found that the fibrinogen and D-dimer contents were significantly higher, whereas the thrombin time (TT) and prothrombin time (PT) were significantly shorter in the FAC group. After ink staining, the microvascular bed in the FAC group was significantly reduced compared with that in the Ctrl group. HE and Martius Scarlet Blue (MSB) staining showed microthrombus in the bone marrow of the iron accumulation rats. Following anticoagulation therapy, the bone microcirculation vascular bed areas in the treatment group rats were significantly increased. Furthermore, the bone mineral density was increased in the treatment group compared with that in the non-treatment group. Through experiments, we found that the blood in iron accumulation rat was relatively hypercoagulable; moreover, there was microthrombus in the bone marrow, and the bone vascular bed was reduced. Additionally, anticoagulation was helpful for improving bone microcirculation, reducing microthrombus and decreasing bone loss.

Cost-Effectiveness of Zoledronic Acid Versus Oral Alendronate for Postmenopausal Osteoporotic Women in China

Objective

This study aims to estimate the cost-effectiveness of yearly intravenous zoledronic acid treatment versus weekly oral alendronate for postmenopausal osteoporotic women in China.

Methods

We used a Markov microsimulation model to compare the cost-effectiveness of zoledronic acid with alendronate in Chinese postmenopausal osteoporotic women with no fracture history at various ages of therapy initiation from health care payer perspective.

Results

The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for the zoledronic acid versus alendronate were $23,581/QALY at age 65 years, $17,367/QALY at age 70 years, $14,714/QALY at age 75 years, and $12,169/QALY at age 80 years, respectively. In deterministic sensitivity analyses, the study demonstrated that the two most impactful parameters were the annual cost of zoledronic acid and the relative risk of hip fracture with zoledronic acid. In probabilistic sensitivity analyses, the probabilities of zoledronic acid being cost-effective compared with alendronate were 70–100% at a willingness-to-pay of $29,340 per QALY.

Conclusions

Among postmenopausal osteoporotic women in China, zoledronic acid therapy is cost-effective at all ages examined from health care payer perspective, compared with weekly oral alendronate. In addition, alendronate treatment is shown to be dominant for patients at ages 65 and 70 with full persistence. This study will help clinicians and policymakers make better decisions about the relative economic value of osteoporosis treatments in China.

Evaluation of two tools for the early screening of osteoporosis in postmenopausal Chinese women with type 2 diabetes mellitus

Objective

To evaluate two osteoporosis screening tools, the osteoporosis self-assessment tool for Asians (OSTA) and the osteoporosis screening tool for Chinese (OSTC), in postmenopausal Chinese women with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).

Methods

This retrospective study enrolled postmenopausal female patients with T2DM. Bone mineral density at the lumbar spine (L1–4) and left femoral neck was measured using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). The OSTA and OSTC scores were calculated and compared with bone mineral density at the two anatomical sites.

Results

A total of 404 patients with T2DM were enrolled in this study. The detection rates for osteoporosis in the lumbar spine (L1–L4) and left femoral neck by DXA were 22.5% (91 of 404 patients) and 21.8% (88 of 404 patients), respectively; 14.4% (58 of 404 patients) and 18.1% (73 of 404 patients) by OSTA, respectively; and 21.5% (87 of 404 patients) at both sites by OSTC. At the femoral neck, the areas under the curve (AUC) of OSTA and OSTC for predicting osteoporosis were 0.73 and 0.78, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity for OSTA were 64.9% and 72.7%, respectively; and for OSTC, they were 64.2% and 79.5%, respectively.

Conclusions

The OSTC assessment tool was superior to OSTA for osteoporosis screening in postmenopausal Chinese women with T2DM.

Predicting the intervention threshold for initiating osteoporosis treatment among postmenopausal women in China: a cost-effectiveness analysis based on real-world data

This study built a micro-simulation Markov model to determine the treatment threshold of osteoporosis in postmenopausal women in Mainland China. Treatment with zoledronate is cost-effective when FRAX-based (Fracture risk assessment tool) fracture probability is over 7%.

INTRODUCTION

The purpose of this study is to estimate FRAX-based fracture probabilities in Mainland China using real-world data, at which intervention could be cost-effective.

METHODS

We developed a micro-simulation Markov model to capture osteoporosis states and relevant morbidities including hip fracture, vertebral fracture, and wrist fracture. Baseline characteristics including incidences of osteoporosis and distribution of risk factors were derived from the Peking Vertebral Fracture study, the largest prospective cohort study of postmenopausal women in Mainland China. We projected incidences of fractures and deaths by age groups under two treatment scenarios: 1) no treatment, and 2) zoledronate. We also projected total quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) and total costs including fracture management and osteoporosis drugs for cost-effectiveness analysis. Cost-effective intervention thresholds were calculated based on the Chinese FRAX model.

RESULTS

Treatment with zoledronate was cost-effective when the 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture based on FRAX was above 7%. The FRAX threshold increased by age from 51 to 65 years old, and decreased in elder age groups, ranging from 4% to 9%.

CONCLUSIONS

Using real-world data, our model indicated that widespread use of zoledronate was of both clinical and economic benefit among Chinese postmenopausal women. Using a FRAX-based intervention threshold of 7% with zoledronate should permit cost-effective access to therapy to patients and contribute to reducing the disease burden of osteoporosis in Mainland China.

Age at natural menopause in Koreans: secular trends and influences thereon

OBJECTIVES

Age at natural menopause (ANM) has become an important health issue in older women. We explored secular trends in ANM in Korea during the past decade, and defined factors predicting ANM.

METHODS

A total of 12,761 naturally menopausal women were selected from the 2001 to 2014 data of the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, stages II to VI. The participants were divided into four groups based on 5-year ANM categories: <45, 45 to 49, 50 to 54, and ≥55 years. To identify factors associated with ANM, the regression analysis was used.

RESULTS

Both the mean (SE) and median (SE) ANM were 49.30 (0.07) years. The cumulative proportion of women experiencing menopause before the age of 40, 45, 50, and 55 years was 3.6%, 11.8%, 46.0%, and 90.3%, respectively. The mean (SE) ANM in women born in 1929 or earlier, and between 1930 to 1934, 1935 to 1939, 1940 to 1944, and 1945 to 1949, was 47.9 (0.3), 48.1 (0.2), 48.8 (0.2), 50.1 (0.2), and 50.5 (0.1) years, respectively (P < 0.001). Residence in a rural area (odds ratio [OR] 1.82), low weight status (OR 1.61), a history of or current smoking, a low educational level, being without a partner, and participating in at least moderate physical activity (OR 1.47, 1.33, 1.32, and 1.26, respectively) were more likely to result in an early ANM. Women with prior childbirth were less likely to experience early menopause (OR 0.34). In contrast, late menopause was associated with obesity and being overweight (OR 1.63 and 1.27).

CONCLUSIONS

We found that the mean ANM exhibited upward secular trends. Socioeconomic status and lifestyle factors were the principal independent factors affecting ANM.

LncRNA-NEF is downregulated in postmenopausal osteoporosis and is related to course of treatment and recurrence

Objectives

We investigated the role of long non-coding (lnc) RNA-NEF (neighboring enhancer of FoxA2), a characterized oncogene in cancer biology, in postmenopausal osteoporosis and its diagnostic and prognostic value in this disease.

Methods

Expression of lncRNA-NEF in plasma was detected by RNA extraction and real-time quantitative PCR. The diagnostic value of lncRNA-NEF and interleukin (IL)-6 for postmenopausal osteoporosis was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, with postmenopausal osteoporosis patients as true positive cases and healthy volunteers as true negative cases.

Results

We showed that plasma lncRNA-NEF was downregulated and plasma IL-6 was upregulated in postmenopausal osteoporosis patients compared with healthy controls. Altered plasma levels of lncRNA-NEF and IL-6 separated postmenopausal osteoporosis patients from healthy controls, and lncRNA-NEF and IL-6 were inversely and significantly correlated in osteoporosis patients. Patients were divided into high (n = 68) and low lncRNA-NEF (n = 73) groups according to Youden’s index. Patients with high lncRNA-NEF levels required a significantly shorter treatment course and had a lower post-treatment recurrence rate.

Conclusion

We showed that lncRNA-NEF is downregulated in postmenopausal osteoporosis and is related to course of treatment and recurrence. The involvement of lncRNA-NEF in postmenopausal osteoporosis is likely related to IL-6.

Bone mineral density as a dose-response predictor for osteoporosis: a propensity score analysis of longitudinal incident study (KCIS no. 39)

BACKGROUND

Osteoporosis is a global disease burden for aging society. The role of quantitative ultrasound (QUS) in the prediction for osteoporosis in a dose-response manner is hardly addressed.

AIM

We aimed to show the dose-response of QUS measurement in the prediction for osteoporosis by a community-based study.

DESIGN

A prospective cohort study.

METHODS

Participants were recruited between 2000 and 2004. Demographic data and heel QUS measurement were collected at baseline. Diagnosis of osteoporosis was ascertained by the follow-up of this cohort over time. In order to reduce the imbalance of baseline characteristics in the observational study, we applied propensity score by using proportional odds regression analysis to match the quintiles of QUS T-score.

RESULTS

A total of 44 957 subjects composed of 17 678 men (39.3%) and 27 279 women (69.7%) were recruited. After adjustments for propensity score, an increase in one unit of QUB T-score led to 7% reduction in the risk for osteoporosis [adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 0.93, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.89-0.96, P < 0.0001]. Higher quintile of QUS T-score yielded a lower risk of osteoporosis with a gradient relationship [OR: 0.82 (95%CI: 0.72-0.92); OR: 0.81 (95%CI: 0.71-0.91); OR: 0.77 (95%CI: 0.68-0.87) and OR: 0.76 (95%CI: 0.67-0.86)] from the second to highest quintile opposed to first quintile (P < 0.0001). The cumulative incidence of osteoporosis was higher in the lower quintile during follow-up (log-rank test, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

QUS is an independent predictor for osteoporosis in a dose-response manner using a large population-based cohort. Due to the lower cost and portability of QUS measurement, the pre-screening for osteoporosis by QUS can be considered in the area with limited resources can be a feasible and alternative method.

Microsimulation model for the health economic evaluation of osteoporosis interventions: study protocol

INTRODUCTION

Osteoporosis is a systemic skeletal disease that is characterised by reduced bone strength and increased fracture risk. Osteoporosis-related fractures impose enormous disease and economic burden to the society. Although many treatments and health interventions are proven effective to prevent fractures, health economic evaluation adds evidence to their economic merits. Computer simulation modelling is a useful approach to extrapolate clinical and economic outcomes from clinical trials and it is increasingly used in health economic evaluation. Many osteoporosis health economic models have been developed in the past decades; however, they are limited to academic use and there are no publicly accessible health economic models of osteoporosis.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will develop the Australian osteoporosis health economic model based on our previously published microsimulation model of osteoporosis in the Chinese population. The development of the model will follow the recommendations for the conduct of economic evaluations in osteoporosis by the European Society for Clinical and Economic Aspects of Osteoporosis, Osteoarthritis and Musculoskeletal Diseases and the US branch of the International Osteoporosis Foundation. The model will be a state-transition semi-Markov model with memory. Clinical parameters in the model will be mainly obtained from the Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study and the health economic parameters will be collected from the Australian arm of the International Costs and Utilities Related to Osteoporotic Fractures Study. Model transparency and validates will be tested using the recommendations from Good Research Practices in Modelling Task Forces. The model will be used in economic evaluations of osteoporosis interventions including pharmaceutical treatments and primary care interventions. A user-friendly graphical user interface will be developed, which will connect the user to the calculation engine and the results will be generated. The user interface will facilitate the use of our model by people in different sectors.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

No ethical approval is needed for this study. Results of the model validation and future economic evaluation studies will be submitted to journals. The user interface of the health economic model will be publicly available online accompanied with a user manual.

Osteoporosis in postmenopausal women in this decade: a bibliometric assessment of current research and future hotspots

Postmenopausal osteoporosis (PMOP) has already become a major public health problem. However, there was no bibliometric analysis estimating the evolutionary process of PMOP research.

PURPOSE

This study aimed to assess its scientific activity.

METHODS

Publications on PMOP were retrieved from Science Citation Index-Expanded (SCI-E) of the Web of Science (WoS) from 2008 to 2018. VOSviewer software was used for data mining and visualization. The quantity of papers, number of citations, citation frequency per year, and H-index were assessed and compared among different countries, institutes, and researchers.

RESULTS

A total of 11,142 papers were included and were cited 184,416 times. The USA contributed the most papers (3162), the most citations (83,270 times), and the highest H-index (115). Canada ranked first for the number of papers per million populations and per trillion GDP. Seven of the top ten funding agencies were industries. The key words were stratified into four clusters: cluster 1 ("basic research"), cluster 2 ("diagnosis"), cluster 3 ("treatment"), and cluster 4 ("others"). Average appearing years (AAY) of key words in cluster 1 were the largest compared to those in clusters 2 and 3. For hotspots, "miRNA" showed a relatively latest AAY of 2017.63, followed by "abaloparatide" and "adipokine".

CONCLUSION

We concluded that the USA and Europe were the most productive regions on PMOP, with a high prevalence of articles supported by pharmaceutical companies. Key word focus gradually shifted from "diagnosis" to "treatment" and then to precision medicine orientated "basic research". It is recommended to pay attention to potential research hotspots, such as "miRNA," "abaloparatide," and "adipokine".

Cost-effectiveness of osteoporosis screening strategies for hip fracture prevention in older Chinese people: a decision tree modeling study in the Mr. OS and Ms. OS cohort in Hong Kong

Despite the high costs of hip fracture, many governments provide limited support for osteoporosis screening. We demonstrated that osteoporosis screening by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) with or without pre-screening by Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) or calcaneal ultrasound are more cost-effective than no screening in Chinese people aged 65 or over in Hong Kong.

INTRODUCTION

To examine the cost-effective potential osteoporosis screening strategies for hip fracture prevention in Hong Kong.

METHODS

Decision tree models were constructed to evaluate the cost per quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) of the different osteoporosis screening strategies followed by subsequent 5-year treatment with alendronate compared to no screening (but treat if a hip fracture occurs). The multiple osteoporosis screening strategies were composed of alternative tests and initiation age groups were evaluated with a 10-year horizon, and treatment were assigned if central dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) T-score (at either the hip or spine) is - 2.5 or less. Strategies included DXA for all people and pre-screening with the Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) at specific thresholds or by calcaneal quantitative ultrasonography (QUS) before taking DXA examination. All the model inputs were based on the Mr. OS and Ms. OS Hong Kong cohort; data are obtained from the Social Welfare Department or the published literature.

RESULTS

All of the screening strategies, including the universal screening with DXA and the pre-screening with FRAX or QUS before DXA, were consistently more cost-effective than no screening for people aged 65 years old or over. One-way sensitivity analysis with a more optimistic assumption on treatment adherence or inclusion of other major osteoporotic fractures did not change the results materially. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses showed a dominant role of pre-screening with FRAX followed by subsequent osteoporosis drug treatment in people aged 70 years old or over in Hong Kong.

CONCLUSIONS

Osteoporosis screening strategies based on DXA with or without pre-screening are more cost-effective compared to no screening for Chinese people aged 65 or over in Hong Kong.