Evaluation on the cost-effective threshold of osteoporosis treatment on elderly women in China using discrete event simulation model

Cost Effectiveness of Denosumab for Secondary Prevention of Osteoporotic Fractures Among Postmenopausal Women in China: An Individual-Level Simulation Analysis

OBJECTIVE

This study evaluated the cost effectiveness of denosumab versus alendronate for secondary prevention of osteoporotic fractures among post-menopausal women in China.

METHODS

A validated individual-level simulation model of osteoporotic fractures in the Chinese setting was adapted. Allowing both treatment discontinuation and waning effects, the analysis aimed to evaluate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of denosumab compared to alendronate by simulating a cohort of previously fractured individuals over the residual lifetime from the healthcare system perspective. Hip, vertebral, and wrist/humeral fractures were tracked along with the associated medical costs and quality-adjusted life-years. Age-related health state utility values, health state utility values of fractures, costs, fracture incidence, and mortality risks for Chinese were used whenever available. Comparative effectiveness data were obtained from a published network meta-analysis. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

In the base case, denosumab was dominated by alendronate with incremental costs of CN¥2743 (US$425) and incremental health outcomes of - 0.20 quality-adjusted life-years at its current price in mainland China. It remained dominated in all one-way sensitivity analysis robustness checks. However, denosumab was cost effective if both drugs did not carry any waning effects. In the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, denosumab remained dominated in all replications.

CONCLUSIONS

Denosumab is not cost effective for preventing secondary fractures among overall postmenopausal women in China. It is advisable to identify alternative denosumab regimens for high-risk subgroups among previously fractured postmenopausal women.

A systematic review of cost‑effectiveness analyses of sequential treatment for osteoporosis

Sequential treatment of osteoporosis has been increasingly mentioned in recent years. However, the corresponding systematic review has not been reported. This study aims to systematically review and assess all full-text pharmacoeconomic studies of sequential treatment for osteoporosis. A comprehensive literature search was performed using PubMed, EMBASE (Ovid), CNKI, and Wanfang Database to identify original articles, published before June 17, 2022. The quality of included articles was evaluated by the updated Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS 2022) and the European Society for Clinical and Economic Aspects of Osteoporosis, Osteoarthritis and Musculoskeletal Diseases International Osteoporosis Foundation (ESCEO-IOF). In general, ten articles were included in this review. For the comparison between sequential treatment and bisphosphonate monotherapy, more than 75% of studies demonstrated the sequential treatment was cost-effective or dominant, with the exception of sequential treatment involving teriparatide. When the comparisons occurred between the two sequential treatment groups, the sequential treatments associated with either abaloparatide or romosozumab were cost-effective or dominant compared to the sequential treatment involving teriparatide. Several major key drivers of cost-effectiveness included drug cost, medication persistence and adherence, drug effect on fracture risk, offset effect, time horizon, and baseline fracture risk. The most of studies were identified as high quality in CHEERS (2022) and ESCEO-IOF. The cost-effectiveness of sequential treatment for osteoporosis is influenced by multiple factors. Generally, the sequential treatments involving abaloparatide, romosozumab, denosumab, and bisphosphonates may be considered as the preferred option for osteoporosis with high fracture risk, while the sequential treatment with teriparatide was not a cost-effectiveness strategy. The ESCEO-IOF and CHEER (2022) increase the transparency, comparability, extrapolation, and quality of research, engage patients and the general public in research on health services and policies, and help improve the quality of health technology assessment.

Predicting the intervention threshold for initiating osteoporosis treatment among postmenopausal women in China: a cost-effectiveness analysis based on real-world data

This study built a micro-simulation Markov model to determine the treatment threshold of osteoporosis in postmenopausal women in Mainland China. Treatment with zoledronate is cost-effective when FRAX-based (Fracture risk assessment tool) fracture probability is over 7%.

INTRODUCTION

The purpose of this study is to estimate FRAX-based fracture probabilities in Mainland China using real-world data, at which intervention could be cost-effective.

METHODS

We developed a micro-simulation Markov model to capture osteoporosis states and relevant morbidities including hip fracture, vertebral fracture, and wrist fracture. Baseline characteristics including incidences of osteoporosis and distribution of risk factors were derived from the Peking Vertebral Fracture study, the largest prospective cohort study of postmenopausal women in Mainland China. We projected incidences of fractures and deaths by age groups under two treatment scenarios: 1) no treatment, and 2) zoledronate. We also projected total quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) and total costs including fracture management and osteoporosis drugs for cost-effectiveness analysis. Cost-effective intervention thresholds were calculated based on the Chinese FRAX model.

RESULTS

Treatment with zoledronate was cost-effective when the 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture based on FRAX was above 7%. The FRAX threshold increased by age from 51 to 65 years old, and decreased in elder age groups, ranging from 4% to 9%.

CONCLUSIONS

Using real-world data, our model indicated that widespread use of zoledronate was of both clinical and economic benefit among Chinese postmenopausal women. Using a FRAX-based intervention threshold of 7% with zoledronate should permit cost-effective access to therapy to patients and contribute to reducing the disease burden of osteoporosis in Mainland China.

Economic Evaluation of the 2016 Chinese Guideline and Alternative Risk Thresholds of Initiating Statin Therapy for the Management of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease

OBJECTIVE

The 2016 Chinese guidelines for the management of dyslipidemia recommended mixed rules that centered around a 10% 10-year risk threshold to initiate statins for the primary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). The present study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the guideline statin-initiation strategy and alternative strategies.

METHODS

A decision analytic model using discrete event simulation with event probabilities based on a validated ASCVD risk prediction tool for Chinese was constructed. Risk factor inputs were from the dataset of a nationally representative survey of middle-aged and elderly Chinese. Data of statin treatment effectiveness were from a published meta-analysis. Other key input data were identified from the literature or relevant databases. The strategies we evaluated were the guideline strategy, a 15% 10-year risk threshold strategy and a 20% 10-year risk threshold strategy. After excluding any extended dominance strategies, the incremental costs per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained of each strategy was calculated.

RESULTS

The 20% 10-year risk threshold strategy was an extended dominance option. The incremental costs per QALY gained from the 15% 10-year risk threshold strategy compared with no treatment and the guideline strategy compared with the 15% 10-year risk threshold strategy were CN¥69,309 and CN¥154,944, respectively. The results were robust in most sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

The guideline strategy and the 15% 10-year risk threshold strategy are optimal when using the three times and the two times the gross domestic product per capita willingness-to-pay standards, respectively.

Efficacy, cost, and aspects to take into account in the treatment of osteoporosis in the elderly

Age is one of the principal risk factors for development of frailty fractures. Age pyramids show a population that is becoming increasingly more elderly, with an increasing incidence of fractures, and the forecasts for the future are truly alarming. Adequate handling of these patients who are especially at risk, at both the preventive and care levels, with a well-defined orthogeriatric model is necessary to respond to this clinical challenge. The objective of this review is to analyze the efficacy of the different strategies for the handling of geriatric patients with fracture risk.