The role of previous falls in major osteoporotic fracture prediction in conjunction with FRAX in older Chinese men and women: the Mr. OS and Ms. OS cohort study in Hong Kong

Fracture risk prediction in old Chinese people-a narrative review

With aging, the burden of osteoporotic fracture (OF) increases substantially, while China is expected to carry the greatest part in the future. The risk of fracture varies greatly across racial groups and geographic regions, and systematically organized evidence on the potential predictors for fracture risk is needed for Chinese. This review briefly introduces the epidemiology of OF and expands on the predictors and predictive tools for the risk of OF, as well as the challenges for their potential translation in the old Chinese population. There are regional differences of fracture incidence among China. The fracture incidences in Hong Kong and Taiwan have decreased in recent years, while it is still increasing in mainland China. Although the application of dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) is limited among old Chinese in the mainland, bone mineral density (BMD) by DXA has a predictive value similar to that worldwide. Other non-DXA modalities, especially heel QUS, are helpful in assessing bone health. The fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX) has a good discrimination ability for OFs, especially the FRAX with BMD. And some clinical factors have added value to FRAX, which has been verified in old Chinese. In addition, although the application of the osteoporosis self-assessment tool for Asians (OSTA) in Chinese needs further validation, it may help identify high-risk populations in areas with limited resources. Moreover, the translation use of the muscle quality and genetic or serum biomarkers in fracture prediction needs further works. More applicable and targeted fracture risk predictors and tools are still needed for the old Chinese population.

Adjusting conventional FRAX estimates of fracture probability according to the number of prior falls in the preceding year

A greater propensity to falling is associated with higher fracture risk. This study provides adjustments to FRAX-based fracture probabilities accounting for the number of prior falls.

INTRODUCTION

Prior falls increase subsequent fracture risk but are not currently directly included in the FRAX tool. The aim of this study was to quantify the effect of the number of prior falls on the 10-year probability of fracture determined with FRAX®.

METHODS

We studied 21,116 women and men age 40 years or older (mean age 65.7 ± 10.1 years) with fracture probability assessment (FRAX®), self-reported falls for the previous year, and subsequent fracture outcomes in a registry-based cohort. The risks of death, hip fracture, and non-hip major osteoporotic fracture (MOF-NH) were determined by Cox proportional hazards regression for fall number category versus the whole population (i.e., an average number of falls). Ten-year probabilities of hip fracture and major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) were determined according to the number of falls from the hazards of death and fracture incorporated into the FRAX model for the UK. The probability ratios (number of falls vs. average number of falls) provided adjustments to conventional FRAX estimates of fracture probability according to the number of falls.

RESULTS

Compared with the average number of falls, the hazard ratios for hip fracture, MOF-NH and death were lower than unity in the absence of a fall history. Hazard ratios increased progressively with an increasing number of reported falls. The probability ratio rose progressively as the number of reported falls increased. Probability ratios decreased with age, an effect that was more marked the greater the number of prior falls.

CONCLUSION

The probability ratios provide adjustments to conventional FRAX estimates of fracture probability according to the number of prior falls.

Application of intelligent X-ray image analysis in risk assessment of osteoporotic fracture of femoral neck in the elderly

The paper focuses on establishing a risk assessment model of femoral neck osteoporotic fracture (FNOF) in the elderly population and improving the screening efficiency and accuracy of such diseases in specific populations. In literature research, the main risk factors of femoral neck osteoporosis (FNOP) in the elderly were studied and analyzed; the femur region of interest (ROI) and the hard bone edge segmentation model were selected from the X-ray digital image by using the image depth learning method. On this basis, the femoral trabecular score and femoral neck strength (FNS) in the set region were selected as the main evaluation elements, and the quantitative analysis method was established; an X-ray image processing method was applied to the feasibility study of FNOP and compared with dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry measurements of bone mineral density; Finally, the main risk factors of FNOP were selected and the prediction model of FNOP in the elderly population was established based on medical image processing, machine learning model construction and other methods. Some FNOP health records were selected as test samples for comparative analysis with traditional manual evaluation methods. The paper shows the risk assessment model of FNOF in the elderly population, which is feasible in testing. Among them, the artificial neural network model had a better accuracy (95.83%) and recall rate (100.00%), and the support vector machine prediction model had high specificity (62.50%). With the help of a machine learning method to establish the risk assessment model of FNOF for the elderly, one can provide decision support for the fracture risk assessment of the elderly and remind the clinic to give targeted interventions for the above high-risk groups in order to reduce the fracture risk.

Association Among Cognition, Frailty, and Falls and Self-Reported Incident Fractures: Results From the Canadian Longitudinal Study on Aging (CLSA)

Cognition, frailty, and falls have been examined independently as potential correlates of fracture risk, but not simultaneously. Our objective was to explore the association between cognition, frailty, and falls and self-reported incident fractures to determine if these factors show significant independent associations or interactions. We included participants who completed the Canadian Longitudinal Study on Aging (CLSA) 2012-2015 baseline comprehensive assessment, did not experience any self-reported fractures in the year prior to cohort recruitment, and completed the follow-up questionnaire at year 3 (n = 26,982). We compared all baseline cognitive measures available in the CLSA, the Rockwood Frailty Index (FI), and presence of self-reported falls in the past 12 months in those with versus without self-reported incident fractures in year 3 of follow-up. We used multivariable logistic regression adjusted for covariates and examined two-way interactions between cognition, frailty, and prior falls. CLSA specified analytic weights were applied. The mean ± standard error (SE) age of participants was 59.5 ± 0.1 years and 52.2% were female. A total of 715 participants (2.7%) self-reported incident fractures at 3-year follow-up. Participants who experienced incident fractures had similar baseline cognition scores (mean ± SE; Rey Auditory Verbal Learning Test [RAVLT]: Immediate recall 6.1 ± 0.1 versus 5.9 ± 0.0; standardized difference [d] 0.124); higher FI scores (mean ± SE; FI 0.134 ± 0.005 versus 0.116 ± 0.001; d 0.193), and a greater percentage had fallen in the past 12 months (weighted n [%] 518 [7.2] versus 919 [3.5]; d 0.165). FI (each increment of 0.08) was associated with a significantly increased risk of self-reported incident fractures in participants of all ages and those aged 65 years or older (adjusted odd ratio [OR] 1.24, 95% confidence limit [CL] 1.10-1.40; adjusted OR 1.44, 95% CL 1.11-1.52, respectively). The adjusted odds for self-reported incident fractures in participants of all ages was also significantly associated with falls in the past 12 months prior to baseline (adjusted OR 1.83; 95% CL 1.13-2.97), but not in those aged 65 years or older. No interactions between cognition, frailty, and prior falls were found. However, considering the relatively young age of our cohort, it may be appropriate to make strong inferences in individuals older than 65 years of age. © 2022 The Authors. JBMR Plus published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Validation of the Taiwan FRAX® calculator for the prediction of fracture risk

The Taiwan FRAX® calculator was validated to predict incident fractures preliminarily. Cutoffs of FRAX probability for predicting major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture were proposed as 9.5% and 4% in Taiwanese individuals.

PURPOSE

FRAX® is an algorithm used to calculate fracture probabilities based on clinical risk factors (CRFs) and bone mineral density (BMD). The country-specific Taiwan FRAX calculator has not been validated since its establishment in 2010. The aim of the present study is to evaluate the predictive performance of the Taiwan FRAX calculator using longitudinal fracture data.

METHODS

A total of 1975 subjects, aged ≧ 40 years old, from Yunlin and Tianliao cohorts in Taiwan during the period 2009-2010, were identified and completely connected with the 2008-2016 National Health Insurance Research Database.

RESULTS

During the average 6.8 ± 1.1 years of follow-up, 160 incident major osteoporotic fractures (MOFs) were identified. The predictive ability assessing based on the observed to expected fractures (O/E) ratio calculated with the FRAX probability adjusted for 6.8 years were 1.19 (95%CI 1.02-1.39) for MOF, and 1.07 (95%CI 0.82-1.39) for hip fractures. In the discriminative statistics, the AUC for prediction of major osteoporotic fractures using FRAX was 0.75 without and 0.77 with BMD (AUC for hip fracture was 0.75 without and 0.77 with BMD). The optimal cutoff value was 9.5% of the FRAX score with BMD for all major osteoporotic fractures, with good sensitivity (76.9%) and specificity (65.3%). For hip fractures, the optimal cutoff point for the FRAX probability with BMD was 4.0%, and the sensitivity and specificity were 74.4% and 68.3%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The Taiwan FRAX® calculator was validated to predict incident fractures preliminarily. Cutoffs are proposed for predicting fracture risk in Taiwanese individuals.

Prediction Models for Osteoporotic Fractures Risk: A Systematic Review and Critical Appraisal

Osteoporotic fractures (OF) are a global public health problem currently. Many risk prediction models for OF have been developed, but their performance and methodological quality are unclear. We conducted this systematic review to summarize and critically appraise the OF risk prediction models. Three databases were searched until April 2021. Studies developing or validating multivariable models for OF risk prediction were considered eligible. Used the prediction model risk of bias assessment tool to appraise the risk of bias and applicability of included models. All results were narratively summarized and described. A total of 68 studies describing 70 newly developed prediction models and 138 external validations were included. Most models were explicitly developed (n=31, 44%) and validated (n=76, 55%) only for female. Only 22 developed models (31%) were externally validated. The most validated tool was Fracture Risk Assessment Tool. Overall, only a few models showed outstanding (n=3, 1%) or excellent (n=32, 15%) prediction discrimination. Calibration of developed models (n=25, 36%) or external validation models (n=33, 24%) were rarely assessed. No model was rated as low risk of bias, mostly because of an insufficient number of cases and inappropriate assessment of calibration. There are a certain number of OF risk prediction models. However, few models have been thoroughly internally validated or externally validated (with calibration being unassessed for most of the models), and all models showed methodological shortcomings. Instead of developing completely new models, future research is suggested to validate, improve, and analyze the impact of existing models.

Performance of the Fracture Risk Assessment Tool Associated with Muscle Mass Measurements and Handgrip to Screen for the Risk of Osteoporosis in Young Postmenopausal Women

OBJECTIVE

 To evaluate the improvement in screening accuracy of the Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) for the risk of developing osteoporosis among young postmenopausal women by associating with it clinical muscle mass measures.

METHODS

 A sample of postmenopausal women was submitted to calcaneal quantitative ultrasound (QUS), application of the FRAX questionnaire, and screening for the risk of developing sarcopenia at a health fair held in the city of São Bernardo do Campo in 2019. The sample also underwent anthropometric measurements, muscle mass, walking speed and handgrip tests. A major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) risk ≥ 8.5% on the FRAX, a classification of medium risk on the clinical guideline of the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group (NOGG), and a QUS T-score ≤ -1.8 sd were considered risks of having low bone mass, and QUS T-score ≤ -2.5sd, risk of having fractures.

RESULTS

 In total, 198 women were evaluated, with a median age of 64 ±  7.7 years, median body mass index (BMI) of 27.3 ±  5.3 kg/m2 and median QUS T-score of -1.3 ±  1.3 sd. The accuracy of the FRAX with a MOF risk ≥ 8.5% to identify women with T-scores ≤ -1.8 sd was poor, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.604 (95% confidence interval [95%CI]: 0.509-0.694) for women under 65 years of age, and of 0.642 (95%CI: 0.571-0.709) when age was not considered. Including data on muscle mass in the statistical analysis led to a significant improvement for the group of women under 65 years of age, with an AUC of 0,705 (95%CI: 0.612-0.786). The ability of the high-risk NOGG tool to identify T-scores ≤ -1.8 sd was limited.

CONCLUSION

 Clinical muscle mass measurements increased the accuracy of the FRAX to screen for osteoporosis in women aged under 65 years.

Management of Osteoporosis in Men: A Narrative Review

Male osteoporosis is a still largely underdiagnosed pathological condition. As a consequence, bone fragility in men remains undertreated mainly due to the low screening frequency and to controversies in the bone mineral density (BMD) testing standards. Up to the 40% of overall osteoporotic fractures affect men, in spite of the fact that women have a significant higher prevalence of osteoporosis. In addition, in males, hip fractures are associated with increased morbidity and mortality as compared to women. Importantly, male fractures occur about 10 years later in life than women, and, therefore, due to the advanced age, men may have more comorbidities and, consequently, their mortality is about twice the rate in women. Gender differences, which begin during puberty, lead to wider bones in males as compared with females. In men, follicle-stimulating hormones, testosterone, estrogens, and sex hormone-binding levels, together with genetic factors, interact in determining the peak of bone mass, BMD maintenance, and lifetime decrease. As compared with women, men are more frequently affected by secondary osteoporosis. Therefore, in all osteoporotic men, a complete clinical history should be collected and a careful physical examination should be done, in order to find clues of a possible underlying diseases and, ultimately, to guide laboratory testing. Currently, the pharmacological therapy of male osteoporosis includes aminobisphosphonates, denosumab, and teriparatide. Hypogonadal patients may be treated with testosterone replacement therapy. Given that the fractures related to mortality are higher in men than in women, treating male subjects with osteoporosis is of the utmost importance in clinical practice, as it may impact on mortality even more than in women.

The effects of falls on the prediction of osteoporotic fractures: epidemiological cohort study

Fall is the major risk factor of fracture that has not been included in FRAX®. Whether different age may determine the effect of falls on FRAX® is still uncertain. This epidemiological cohort study reveals that history of fall is a significant predictor of incident fracture independent of FRAX probability, especially in subjects < 75 years old.

INTRODUCTION

The Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) calculates 10-year fracture risk using 11 clinical risk factors and bone mineral density (BMD); however, it does not include fall history in its risk assessment. Here, we investigated whether fall history is an independent risk factor on fracture prediction after adjustment of FRAX scores in two age subgroups (40-75 and ≥ 75 years).

METHODS

Beginning in 2009 to 2010, 1975 people (914 men) from Taiwan were followed for 6.8 ± 1.1 years by matching them with their records in the 2008-2016 National Health Insurance databank. We validated FRAX predictive accuracy with or without fall history by Cox proportional hazards regression.

RESULTS

After adjusting for FRAX risk, a history of falling was still a significant predictor of major osteoporotic fractures (MOFs) (using BMD, hazard ratio [HR], 1.47; p = 0.03; without using BMD, HR, 1.54; p = 0.01). A history of recurrent falls was also a significant predictor of both incident MOFs and hip fractures. However, when the subjects were stratified based on age group, a history of falling and recurrent falls were strong predictors of MOFs and hip fractures in the younger but not the older subgroup.

CONCLUSION

A fall history can predict incident fracture independently of FRAX probability, particularly in subjects younger than 75 years old.

Cost-effectiveness of Screening for Osteoporosis in Older Men With a History of Falls

Importance

Falls and osteoporosis share the potential clinical end point of fractures among older patients. To date, few fall prevention guidelines incorporate screening for osteoporosis to reduce fall-related fractures.

Objective

To assess the cost-effectiveness of screening for osteoporosis using dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) followed by osteoporosis treatment in older men with a history of falls.

Design, Setting, and Participants

In this economic evaluation, a Markov model was developed to simulate the incidence of major osteoporotic fractures in a hypothetical cohort of community-dwelling men aged 65 years who had fallen at least once in the past year. Data sources included literature published from January 1, 1946, to July 31, 2020. The model adopted a societal perspective, a lifetime horizon, a 1-year cycle length, and a discount rate of 3% per year for both health benefits and costs. The analysis was designed and conducted from October 1, 2019, to September 30, 2020.

Interventions

Screening with DXA followed by treatment for men diagnosed with osteoporosis compared with usual care.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), measured by cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained.

Results

Among the hypothetical cohort of men aged 65 years, the screening strategy had an ICER of $33 169/QALY gained and was preferred over usual care at the willingness-to-pay threshold of $100 000/QALY gained. The number needed to screen to prevent 1 hip fracture was 1876; to prevent 1 major osteoporotic fracture, 746. The screening strategy would become more effective and less costly than usual care for men 77 years and older. The ICER for the screening strategy did not substantially change across a wide range of assumptions tested in all other deterministic sensitivity analyses. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of $50 000/QALY gained, screening was cost-effective in 56.0% of simulations; at $100 000/QALY gained, 90.8% of simulations; and at $200 000/QALY gained, 99.6% of simulations.

Conclusions and Relevance

These findings suggest that for older men who have fallen at least once in the past year, screening with DXA followed by treatment for those diagnosed with osteoporosis is a cost-effective use of resources. Fall history could be a useful cue to trigger assessment for osteoporosis in men.

The Predictive Value of Sarcopenia and Falls for 2-Year Major Osteoporotic Fractures in Community-Dwelling Older Adults

To evaluate the associations of sarcopenia and previous falls with 2-year major osteoporotic fractures (MOFs) in community-dwelling older adults. Four thousand Chinese men and women ≥ 65 years recruited from Hong Kong communities were prospectively followed up. Measures of muscle mass, grip strength, gait speed and falls in the previous year were recorded at baseline, the 2nd year and the 4th year visit for each subject. The associations of fall history, sarcopenia and its components with 2-year MOFs were evaluated using generalized linear mixed models. Poor grip strength and poor gait speed were significantly associated with a higher 2-year MOFs risk, with an adjusted OR (95% CI) per one SD decrease of 1.48 (1.17, 1.87) and 1.17 (1.00, 1.36), respectively. Falls in the previous year was a significant predictor for 2-year MOFs risk, with an adjusted OR (95% CI) per one added fall of 1.85 (1.40, 2.44) in men and 1.26 (1.01, 1.58) in women. The adjusted OR (95% CI) of height adjusted appendicular lean muscle mass (ALM/height²) per one SD decrease and sarcopenia for 2-year MOFs risk were 1.34 (0.87, 2.06) and 1.72 (0.92, 3.21) in men, and were 0.73 (0.57, 0.93) and 0.76 (0.39, 1.47) in women, respectively (P for interaction by gender = 0.012 and 0.017, respectively). Poor sarcopenia-related physical performance and falls in the previous year were significant predictors for 2-year MOFs in community-dwelling older adults. The predictive value of ALM by DXA for near-term fracture risk is limited and different across genders.

New Developments in Fracture Risk Assessment for Current Osteoporosis Reports

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Identifying individuals at high fracture risk can be used to target those likely to derive the greatest benefit from treatment. This narrative review examines recent developments in using specific risk factors used to assess fracture risk, with a focus on publications in the last 3 years.

RECENT FINDINGS

There is expanding evidence for the recognition of individual clinical risk factors and clinical use of composite scores in the general population. Unfortunately, enthusiasm is dampened by three pragmatic randomized trials that raise questions about the effectiveness of widespread population screening using clinical fracture prediction tools given suboptimal participation and adherence. There have been refinements in risk assessment in special populations: men, patients with diabetes, and secondary causes of osteoporosis. New evidence supports the value of vertebral fracture assessment (VFA), high resolution peripheral quantitative CT (HR-pQCT), opportunistic screening using CT, skeletal strength assessment with finite element analysis (FEA), and trabecular bone score (TBS). The last 3 years have seen important developments in the area of fracture risk assessment, both in the research setting and translation to clinical practice. The next challenge will be incorporating these advances into routine work flows that can improve the identification of high risk individuals at the population level and meaningfully impact the ongoing crisis in osteoporosis management.

Fracture prediction from self-reported falls in routine clinical practice: a registry-based cohort study

A simple question construct regarding number of falls in the previous year, ascertained by a single question, was strongly associated with incident fractures in routine clinical practice using a population-based dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) registry.

INTRODUCTION

There is conflicting evidence from research cohorts that falls independently increase fracture risk. We examined the independent effects of falls on subsequent fractures in a large clinical registry of bone mineral density (BMD) results for the Province of Manitoba, Canada that has been systematically collecting self-reported falls information since September 1, 2012.

METHODS

The study population consisted of 24,943 women and men aged 40 years and older (mean age 65.5 ± 10.2 years) with fracture probability assessment (FRAX), self-reported falls for the previous year (categorized as none, 1, 2, or > 3) and fracture outcomes. Adjusted hazard ratios (HR) with 95 confidence intervals (CI) for time to fracture were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

During mean observation time of 2.7 ± 1.0 years, 863 (3.5%) sustained one or more major osteoporotic fractures (MOF), 212 (0.8%) sustained a hip fracture, and 1210 (4.9%) sustained any incident fracture. Compared with no falls in the previous year (referent), there was a gradient of increasing risk for fracture with increasing number of falls (all P < 0.001). Results showed minimal attenuation with covariate adjustment. When adjusted for baseline fracture probability (FRAX score with BMD) the HR for MOF increased from 1.49 (95% CI 1.25-1.78) for one fall to 1.74 (1.33-2.27) for two falls to 2.62 (2.06-3.34) for ≥ 3 falls. HRs were similar for any incident fracture and slightly greater for prediction of hip fracture, reaching 3.41 (95% CI 2.19-5.31) for ≥ 3 previous falls.

CONCLUSIONS

Self-report number of falls in the previous year is strongly associated with incident fracture risk in the routine clinical practice setting, and this risk is independent of age, sex, BMD, and baseline fracture probability. Moreover, there is dose-response with multiple falls (up to a maximum of 3) conferring greater risk than a single fall.

The Added Value of SARC-F to Prescreening Using FRAX for Hip Fracture Prevention in Older Community Adults

OBJECTIVES

To examine the potential added value of a simple 5-item questionnaire for sarcopenia screening (SARC-F) to the Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) for hip fracture risk prediction, in order to identify at-risk older adults for screening with dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA).

DESIGN

A prospective cohort study.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Two thousand Chinese men and 2000 Chinese women aged 65 years or older were recruited from local communities and were prospectively followed up for about 10 years.

MEASURES

Areal bone mineral density (BMD) of hip and lumbar spine were measured by DXA at baseline. Ten-year FRAX probability of hip fracture was calculated using the baseline risk factors. Information from the baseline questionnaire was extracted to calculate a modified SARC-F score. The independent predictive values of SARC-F and FRAX questionnaire were evaluated using multivariate survival analysis. The added predictive values of SARC-F to FRAX for pre-DXA screening were examined.

RESULTS

During the follow-up, 63 (3.2%) men and 69 (3.5%) women had at least 1 incident hip fracture. SARC-F had an independent value of FRAX for hip fracture risk prediction, with an adjusted hazard ratio [95% confidence interval (CI)] of 1.24 (1.02, 1.52) and 1.15 (0.99, 1.13) in men and women, respectively. Compared with using FRAX, using SARC-F in conjunction with FRAX made the sensitivity for prediction rise from 58.7% to 76.2% in men and from 69.6% to 78.3% in women, with a nondecreased area under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.67. Prescreening using FRAX in conjunction with SARC-F could save more than half of the DXA assessment than with no prescreening.

CONCLUSIONS/IMPLICATIONS

SARC-F is associated with a modest increase in hip fracture risk, especially in men. Conjoint evaluation for sarcopenia in addition to FRAX screening may help identify older adults at higher risk of hip fracture for more intensive screening and/or preventive interventions.