Modeling the distribution of urolithiasis prevalence under projected climate change in Iran

Longitudinal trend of urolithiasis incidence rates among world countries during past decades

INTRODUCTION

This study explores the trend of urolithiasis in various countries and categorizes the countries in terms of how their urolithiasis incidence rate has changed over time.

METHODS

The incidence rate of urolithiasis in 204 countries from 1990 to 2019, extracted from the Global Burden of Disease study, has been analyzed.

RESULTS

According to the results, all regions had experienced an increasing trend in urolithiasis rate, except for Eastern Europe, Central Europe, and Southeast Asia regions (decreasing rates of -71.4, -56.2, and -9.2 per 100000, respectively). Moreover, the Caribbean region had the highest increasing trend of urolithiasis rates, and Central Asia was in the next rank (increasing rate of 48.3 and 34.3 per 100,000, respectively, p-value < .05). Also, African regions revealed significant increasing trends over time (p-value < 0.05). The outstanding findings in cluster analysis showed that Afghanistan, Andorra, and Comoros had the most decreasing trend in urolithiasis rates over time (decreasing rate of -128.2 per 100000, p-value < .001). Cuba, Cyprus, Czechia, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Denmark, and Djibouti were in the next rank in terms of decreasing rate (decreasing rate of -92.3 per 100000, p-value < .001). In addition, urolithiasis rates in Congo, Eswatini, Gabon, and Grenada have the most increasing trend (increasing rate of 116.1 per 100000, p-value < .001).

CONCLUSION

The trend of urolithiasis rates was significantly increased in most countries, and Congo, Eswatini, Gabon, and Grenada had the highest trend among others. Also, Afghanistan, Andorra, and Comoros revealed the most decreasing rates, and the trend has dropped remarkably in several other countries.

Ambient heat stress and urolithiasis attacks in China: Implication for climate change

BACKGROUND

Although the existing studies have suggested a significant association between high temperatures and urolithiasis, no nationwide studies have quantified the burden attributable to environmental heat stress and explored how the urolithiasis burden would vary in a warming climate.

METHODS

We collected data on urolithiasis attacks from 137 hospitals in 59 main cities from 20 provincial regions of China from 2000 to 2020. An individual-level case-crossover analysis was conducted to estimate the effect of daily wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT), a heat stress index combining temperature and humidity, on urolithiasis attacks. Stratified analyses were performed by region, age, and sex. We further quantified the future WBGT-related burden of urolithiasis from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios.

RESULTS

In total, 118,180 urolithiasis patients were evaluated. The exposure-response curve for the association between WBGT and urolithiasis attacks was J-shaped, with a significantly increased risk for WBGT higher than 14.8 °C. The middle-aged and elderly group (≥45 years old) had a higher risk of WBGT-related urolithiasis attacks than in the younger group, while no significant sex difference was observed. The attributable fraction (AF) due to high WBGT would increase from 10.1% in the 2010s to 16.1% in the 2090s under the SSP585 scenario. Warm regions were projected to experience disproportionately higher AFs and larger increments in the future.

CONCLUSIONS

This nationwide investigation provides novel evidence on the acute effect of high WBGT on urolithiasis attacks and demonstrates the increasing disease burden in a warming climate.

Digital health for climate change mitigation and response: a scoping review

OBJECTIVE

Climate change poses a major threat to the operation of global health systems, triggering large scale health events, and disrupting normal system operation. Digital health may have a role in the management of such challenges and in greenhouse gas emission reduction. This scoping review explores recent work on digital health responses and mitigation approaches to climate change.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We searched Medline up to February 11, 2022, using terms for digital health and climate change. Included articles were categorized into 3 application domains (mitigation, infectious disease, or environmental health risk management), and 6 technical tasks (data sensing, monitoring, electronic data capture, modeling, decision support, and communication). The review was PRISMA-ScR compliant.

RESULTS

The 142 included publications reported a wide variety of research designs. Publication numbers have grown substantially in recent years, but few come from low- and middle-income countries. Digital health has the potential to reduce health system greenhouse gas emissions, for example by shifting to virtual services. It can assist in managing changing patterns of infectious diseases as well as environmental health events by timely detection, reducing exposure to risk factors, and facilitating the delivery of care to under-resourced areas.

DISCUSSION

While digital health has real potential to help in managing climate change, research remains preliminary with little real-world evaluation.

CONCLUSION

Significant acceleration in the quality and quantity of digital health climate change research is urgently needed, given the enormity of the global challenge.

Design of Protected Area by Tracking and Excluding the Effects of Climate and Landscape Change: A Case Study Using Neurergus derjugini

This study aimed to use the applications of Ensemble Species Distribution Modelling (eSDM), Geographical Information Systems (GISs), and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) for the design of a protected area (PA) for the critically endangered yellow-spotted mountain newt, Neurergus derjugini, by tracking and excluding the effects of climate and landscape changes in western Iran and northeastern Iraq. Potential recent and future distributions (2050 and 2070) were reconstructed by eSDM using eight algorithms with MRI-CGCM3 and CCSM4 models. The GIS-based MCDA siting procedure was followed inside habitats with high eSDM suitability by eliminating the main roads, cities, high village density, dams, poor vegetation, low stream density, agricultural lands and high ridge density. Then, within the remaining relevant areas, 10 polygons were created as “nominations” for PAs (NPAs). Finally, for 10 different NPAs, the suitability score was ranked based on ratings and weights (analytical hierarchy process) of the number of newt localities, NPA connectivity, NPA shape, NPA habitat suitability in 2070, NPA size, genetic diversity, village density and distance to nearest PAs, cities, and main roads. This research could serve as a modern realistic approach for environmental management to plan conservation areas using a cost-effective and affordable technique.

Study of risk factor of urinary calculi according to the association between stone composition with urine component

Urolithiasis is a common urinary disease with high recurrence. The risk factor for the recurrence of calculi is not very clear. The object of the present study was to evaluate the association between calculi composition and urine component and analyse the risk factor for the recurrence of urolithiasis. In this study, a total of 223 patients with calculi and healthy control were enrolled, and the components of the calculi and urina sanguinis collected before surgery were analysed. Of the 223 patients, 157 were males and 66 were females. According to the stone composition, the case group was subdivided into three groups. 129 patients had single calcium oxalate stones, 72 had calcium oxalate stones mixed with other stones and 22 had other type of stones excluding calcium oxalate stones. Urine biochemicals were analysed and the associations were found between the chemicals in each group. Multivariate logistic analysis demonstrated that reduced urinary magnesium and uric oxalic acid were independent risk factors when comparing all cases with normal controls. Only decreased urinary magnesium was found to be a risk factor comparing the single calcium oxalate group with normal control group. Low level of urinary magnesium and uric oxalic acid were found to be risk factors comparing the mixed calcium oxalate group with normal control group. No risk factor was found comparing the other stone group with normal control group. In conclusion, there were clear relationships between stone components and urine chemicals. Urine chemicals might be risk factors to predicate the occurrence of urolithiasis.

Assessment of the impact of geogenic and climatic factors on global risk of urinary stone disease

Urinary Stone Disease (USD) or urolithiasis has plagued humans for centuries, and its prevalence has increased over the past few decades. Although USD pathology could vary significantly among individuals, previous qualitative assessments using limited survey data demonstrated that the prevalence of USD might exhibit a distinctive geographical distribution (the so-called "stone belt"), without any knowledge about the characteristics and contribution factors of the belt. Here, we argue that the spatial distribution of USD can at least partly be explained by geogenic and climatic factors, as it correlates with the ambient geo-environmental conditions modulated by lithology/mineralogy, water quality and climate. Using a Bayesian risk model, we assessed the global risk of USD based on updated big data of four key geogenic factors: phosphorite mines (inventory >1600 points), carbonate rocks (at the scale of 1:40 million), Ca²⁺/Mg²⁺ molar ratio of river water (1.27 million samples distributed over 17,000 sampling locations), and mean air temperature (0.5^o × 0.5° resolution) representing the climate. We quantitatively identified possible contributions of the factors to USD and delineated the regions with the high USD risk which stretched from southern North America, via the Mediterranean region, northeastern Africa, southern China to Australia, and roughly coincide with the world's major areas of carbonate outcropping. Under current climate conditions, the areas with the probabilities for the USD prevalence of ≥50% and ≥30% covered 3.7% and 20% of the Earth's land surface, respectively. By the end of the 21st century, such total areas could rise to 4.4% and 25% as a result of global warming. Since the USD data used in this study were quite heterogeneous, the prediction results needed further calibration with additional high-quality prevalence data in the future.

Epidemiology of urolithiasis in Asia

In Asia, about 1%-19.1% of the population suffer from urolithiasis. However, due to variations in socio-economic status and geographic locations, the prevalence and incidence have changed in different countries or regions over the years. The research for risk factors of urinary tract stones is of predominant importance. In this review, we find the prevalence of urolithiasis is 5%-19.1% in West Asia, Southeast Asia, South Asia, as well as some developed countries (South Korea and Japan), whereas, it is only 1%-8% in most part of East Asia and North Asia. The recurrence rate ranges from 21% to 53% after 3-5 years. Calcium oxalate (75%-90%) is the most frequent component of calculi, followed by uric acid (5%-20%), calcium phosphate (6%-13%), struvite (2%-15%), apatite (1%) and cystine (0.5%-1%). The incidence of urolithiasis reaches its peak in population aged over 30 years. Males are more likely to suffer from urinary calculi. Because of different dietary habits or genetic background, differences of prevalence among races or nationalities also exist. Genetic mutation of specific locus may contribute to the formation of different kinds of calculi. Dietary habits (westernized dietary habits and less fluid intake), as well as climatic factors (hot temperature and many hours of exposure to sunshine) play a crucial role in the development of stones. Other diseases, especially metabolic syndrome, may also contribute to urinary tract stones.

Major geogenic factors controlling geographical clustering of urolithiasis in China

The prevalence of urolithiasis is increasing across the world and exhibits a distinctive characteristic of geographical distribution. Geographical clustering and major geogenic factors for urolithiasis prevalence in China were investigated. High risks of urolithiasis are found in southern China clustered in coastal provinces such as Fujian and Zhejiang and karst regions such as Sichuan, Chongqing, Guizhou, Guangxi, Guangdong, Hunan, and Hubei. The predominant urinary stone composition is a mixture of calcium oxalate and phosphate. We found that the spatial distribution of phosphate-type stones is closely related to that of phosphate ore deposits and carbonate rocks. Hot or warm climate and seasons increase the risk of lithogenesis through high average air temperature. Water and soil environment influence the quality and composition of drinking water and food, thus affecting stone formation in the urinary system. In particular, the increase of Ca(2+)/Mg(2+) ratio (in meq) in drinking water might be the main factor. Besides, the high content of calcium in local plants grown on karst soils and the intake of high oxalate food might contribute to the high prevalence in South China. This study indicates that urolithiasis could be endemic, with geogenic factors playing critical roles in urolithiasis etiology.